Changes

[[File:Global temp chart.jpg|thumb|right|Graph showing temperature connections between solar activity and volcanic eruptions, against a backdrop of historical events.]]

[[File:Global temp chart.jpg|thumb|right|Graph showing temperature connections between solar activity and volcanic eruptions, against a backdrop of historical events.]]

'''Anthropogenic global warming''' (AGW) is a scientific theory that suggests that human activity is causing the [[Earth]] to warm. The theory posits that [[greenhouse gas]]es, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and water vapor, trap solar warmth on the planet. Computer models suggest that industrial and vehicular emissions could lead to catastrophic warming. Both leftists and rightists aim to take action to prevent global warming. [[Liberal]]s use this theory as a basis to create or increase taxes on fossil fuels, however, [[conservative]]s prefer regulations that do not have a negative impact on the economy. The growth of green energy may even benefit the economy.<ref>https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2020/04/28/green-growth-tigers-can-help-the-global-economy-to-roar-once-more/</ref> Some conservatives [[Counterexamples to global warming|deny global warming]].<ref>http://ncse.com/climate/denial/climate-change-is-good-science</ref><ref>http://ncse.com/climate/denial/why-is-it-called-denial</ref><ref>http://www.thenation.com/print/article/164497/capitalism-vs-climate</ref>

'''Anthropogenic global warming''' (AGW) is a theory that suggests that human activity is causing the [[Earth]] to warm. The theory posits that [[greenhouse gas]]es, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and water vapor, trap solar warmth on the planet. Computer models suggest that industrial and vehicular emissions could lead to catastrophic warming. [[Leftist]]s use this theory as a basis to propose cuts in energy production and consumption and to promote de-industrialization.

The rate of warming predicted by AGW is far higher than what has been observed so far. Based on an average of 102 climate models, the UN's Intergovernment Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that the lower troposphere should be warming at a rate of 3.1 degrees per century.<ref name="SpencerCSP2">"[https://www.newcriterion.com//cm/images/THE%20CLIMATE%20SURPRISE%20PAMPHLET.pdf The Climate Surprise Pamphlet]", ''The New Criterion'', 2016. Taken from chart "All 3 Global Temperature Dataset Types Disagree with the Climate Model During the Period of Greatest Greenhouse Concentration."</ref> Satellite data shows that the lower troposphere warmed at a rate of 1.4 degrees per century between 1978 and 2021.<ref name="SpencerCSP">"[https://www.newcriterion.com//cm/images/THE%20CLIMATE%20SURPRISE%20PAMPHLET.pdf The Climate Surprise Pamphlet]", ''The New Criterion'', 2016.</ref><ref name=SpencerUAH>Spencer, Roy, "[https://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/ Archive for 2021]", 2019. This is data from the University of Alabama in Huntsville.</ref> Weather balloon data shows a warming trend of 1.6 degrees per century between 1958 and 2018.<ref>"[https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ratpac/ratpac-a/ RATPAC-A-annual-levels.txt.zip]", NOAA, National Centers for Environmental Information. Based on data for 850-300 mb.</ref>

The rate of warming predicted by AGW is far higher than what has been observed so far. Based on an average of 102 climate models, the UN's Intergovernment Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that the lower troposphere should be warming at a rate of 3.1 degrees per century.<ref name="SpencerCSP2">"[https://www.newcriterion.com//cm/images/THE%20CLIMATE%20SURPRISE%20PAMPHLET.pdf The Climate Surprise Pamphlet]", ''The New Criterion'', 2016. Taken from chart "All 3 Global Temperature Dataset Types Disagree with the Climate Model During the Period of Greatest Greenhouse Concentration."</ref> Satellite data shows that the lower troposphere warmed at a rate of 1.4 degrees per century between 1978 and 2021.<ref name="SpencerCSP">"[https://www.newcriterion.com//cm/images/THE%20CLIMATE%20SURPRISE%20PAMPHLET.pdf The Climate Surprise Pamphlet]", ''The New Criterion'', 2016.</ref><ref name=SpencerUAH>Spencer, Roy, "[https://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/ Archive for 2021]", 2019. This is data from the University of Alabama in Huntsville.</ref> Weather balloon data shows a warming trend of 1.6 degrees per century between 1958 and 2018.<ref>"[https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ratpac/ratpac-a/ RATPAC-A-annual-levels.txt.zip]", NOAA, National Centers for Environmental Information. Based on data for 850-300 mb.</ref>

An analysis of weather station data by U.S. climate researcher [[Roy Spencer]] shows no significant warming since 1943. Unlike the official weather station record, Spencer's data includes only those stations that recorded temperature at a consistent time of day.<ref name="Spencer" /> The heating predicted by AGW but not detected in the temperature record is sometimes said to be accumulating in the oceans. But a study by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography found that ocean temperature has risen by only 0.1 degree Celsius in the last fifty years.<ref>"[https://dailycaller.com/2018/01/05/new-study-shows-past-research-on-rising-ocean-temps-built-on-faulty-science/ New Study Shows Past Research On Rising Ocean Temps Built On Faulty Science]," ''The Daily Caller'', 01/05/2018.</ref>

An analysis of weather station data by U.S. climate researcher [[Roy Spencer]] shows no significant warming since 1943. Unlike the official weather station record, Spencer's data includes only those stations that recorded temperature at a consistent time of day.<ref name="Spencer" /> The heating predicted by AGW but not detected in the temperature record is sometimes said to be accumulating in the oceans. But a study by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography found that ocean temperature has risen by only 0.1 degree Celsius in the last fifty years.<ref>"[https://dailycaller.com/2018/01/05/new-study-shows-past-research-on-rising-ocean-temps-built-on-faulty-science/ New Study Shows Past Research On Rising Ocean Temps Built On Faulty Science]," ''The Daily Caller'', 01/05/2018.</ref>

The theory that "greenhouse gases" have a greater warming effect than other gases goes back to the 19th century. The idea that carbon dioxide emissions might lead to catastrophic warming was introduced by Carl Sagan in the 1960s. He was inspired by research on the atmosphere of Venus. Around 1978, the environmental movement decided to promote Sagan's theory. The movement was already advocating energy conservation and renewables as a response to the "energy crisis." A desired political outcome was agreed upon, and then a scientific justification was developed.

The theory that "greenhouse gases" have a greater warming effect than other gases goes back to the 19th century. The idea that carbon dioxide emissions might lead to catastrophic warming was introduced by Carl Sagan in the 1960s. He was inspired by research on the atmosphere of Venus. Around 1978, the environmental movement decided to promote Sagan's theory. The movement was already advocating energy conservation and renewables as a response to the "energy crisis." That is to say, a desired political outcome was agreed upon and then a "scientific" justification was developed.

 

==Difficulties with the theory==

==Difficulties with the theory==

===Climategate===

===Climategate===

The Climatic Research Unit email controversy, also known as [[Climategate]], began when emails were leaked in 2009. The Climate Research Unit of East Anglia University in Britain prepared 156 megaybytes of email by their researchers for release under the Freedom of Information Act. This database was somehow leaked, either prematurely or by a whistleblower after the institution had second thoughts.

The AGW industry was exposed as a hoax by the release of the "[[Climategate]]" emails in 2009. The Climate Research Unit of East Anglia University in Britain prepared 156 megaybytes of email by their researchers for release under the Freedom of Information Act. This database was somehow leaked, either prematurely or by a whistleblower after the institution had second thoughts.

In the most notorious message, Phil Jones, director of the unit, wrote, "I've just completed '''Mike's ''Nature'' trick''' of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith's to '''hide the decline'''."<ref name=MISH /> This should not be understood to mean that real temperature was declining, but rather that the researchers were attempting to cover up flaws in their tree-ring based data set. The graph in question was a version of the famous "hockey stick" that shows global temperature constant for 2,000 years, followed by a dramatic warming in the last century. ''Nature'' is considered one of the most authoritative science journals. So this quote suggests that a chart prepared for the magazine was faked with the approval of Jones as supervisor. An email by CRU researcher Tim Osborn clarifies what the ''Nature'' trick was: "Also we have applied a completely artificial adjustment to the data after 1960, so they look closer to observed temperatures than the tree-ring data actually were."<ref>"[http://tomnelson.blogspot.jp/2011/12/in-case-you-missed-it-damning.html In case you missed it, damning ClimateGate emails from Tim Osborne]", Tom Nelson, Dec. 06, 2011.</ref>  

In the most notorious message, Phil Jones, director of the unit, wrote, "I've just completed '''Mike's ''Nature'' trick''' of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith's to '''hide the decline'''."<ref name=MISH /> This should not be understood to mean that real temperature was declining, but rather that the researchers were attempting to cover up flaws in their tree-ring based data set. The graph in question was a version of the famous "hockey stick" that shows global temperature constant for 2,000 years, followed by a dramatic warming in the last century. ''Nature'' is considered one of the most authoritative science journals. So this quote suggests that a chart prepared for the magazine was faked with the approval of Jones as supervisor. An email by CRU researcher Tim Osborn clarifies what the ''Nature'' trick was: "Also we have applied a completely artificial adjustment to the data after 1960, so they look closer to observed temperatures than the tree-ring data actually were."<ref>"[http://tomnelson.blogspot.jp/2011/12/in-case-you-missed-it-damning.html In case you missed it, damning ClimateGate emails from Tim Osborne]", Tom Nelson, Dec. 06, 2011.</ref>  

What's wrong with using tree ring data to created a climate record? The CRU researchers assumed that a tree grows faster when it's warmer. But rainfall has a stronger influence on tree growth than temperature does. Temperature is correlated to tree growth only in the sense that it tends to rain more in warm eras. Critics call the CRU's approach the "tree-o-meter" theory.<ref>"[http://tomnelson.blogspot.jp/2012/02/email-3826-feb-2001-in-email-copied-to.html Email 3826, Feb 2001]," Tom Nelson, Feb. 04, 2012. "In one go, they tossed aside dozens of studies which confirmed the existence of the MWE [Medieval Warm Era] and LIA [Little Ice Age] as global events, and all on the basis of tree rings - a proxy which has all the deficiencies I have stated above."</ref>

What's wrong with using tree ring data to created a climate record? The CRU researchers assumed that a tree grows faster when it's warmer. But rainfall has a stronger influence on tree growth than temperature does. Temperature is correlated to tree growth only in the sense that it tends to rain more in warm eras. Critics call the CRU's approach the "tree-o-meter" theory.<ref>"[http://tomnelson.blogspot.jp/2012/02/email-3826-feb-2001-in-email-copied-to.html Email 3826, Feb 2001]," Tom Nelson, Feb. 04, 2012. "In one go, they tossed aside dozens of studies which confirmed the existence of the MWE [Medieval Warm Era] and LIA [Little Ice Age] as global events, and all on the basis of tree rings - a proxy which has all the deficiencies I have stated above."</ref>

In another Climategate email, Jones enthusiastically demands that the IPCC review process be rigged: "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!" Jones also admitted that the reason he claims the Earth is warming is political: "The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. Okay it has but it is only seven years of data and it isn't statistically significant."<ref name=steyn14>Steyn, Mark, "[http://www.steynonline.com/2697/how-the-science-got-settled How the Science Got Settled]", December 6, 2014.</ref>

In another Climategate email, Jones enthusiastically demands that the IPCC review process be rigged: "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!" Jones also admitted that the reason he claims the Earth is warming is political: "The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. Okay it has but it is only seven years of data and it isn't statistically significant."<ref name=steyn14>Steyn, Mark, "[http://www.steynonline.com/2697/how-the-science-got-settled How the Science Got Settled]", December 6, 2014.</ref> Jones is ignoring the fact that 1998 was an unusually warm year due to an El Niño event. All the same, it's clear that he runs the CRU to produce made-to-order results rather than as a scientist.

 

The Climatic Research Unit stated that these emails were taken out of context.<ref>https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/20/AR2009112004093.html</ref> Fact-checkers confirmed that the Climategate emails were misrepresented by climate change denialists.<ref>https://www.factcheck.org/2009/12/climategate/</ref>

 

[[China]]'s greenhouse gas levels are higher than the global mean concentration.<ref>http://env.people.com.cn/n1/2018/0403/c1010-29905684.html</ref> China has many coal power plants which significantly contribute to global warming. There has also been an increased occurrence of climate-related disasters such as drought and flood in China.

==The temperature record==

==The temperature record==