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Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes (view source)
Revision as of 00:05, October 19, 2023
, 00:05, October 19, 2023→Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy
{{Cquote|Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>}}
{{Cquote|Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>}}
[[File:Georgetown 2.jpg|thumbnail|center|300px|[[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>]]
[[File:Georgetown 2.jpg|thumbnail|center|300px|[[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>]]
{{Clear}}
== Russian defector reveals that a 'majority' of people inside the Kremlin are unhappy with the war in Ukraine ==
''See also:'' [[Essay: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?|Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?]]
*[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-26/russia-defector-reveals-many-kremlin-members-unhappy-war-730/102526452 Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine], Australian Broadcasting Corporation, June 2023
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmeZRN6YrN0 Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine], ABC News video, July 2023
<br />
[[File:Moscow Grand Kremlin Palace3.jpg|center|thumbnail|400px|The Grand Kremlin Palace is a building in the Moscow Kremlin.
<br />
<br />
The Moscow Kremlin is a fortified complex in the center of Moscow. The Moscow Kremlin now serves as the official residence of the Russian president and as a museum.]]
{{Clear}}
{{Clear}}
== Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy ==
== Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy ==
*[https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31187/w31187.pdf Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy] by Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin, National Burea of Economic Research, Working Paper 31187, April 2023
*[https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31187/w31187.pdf Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy] by Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin, National Burea of Economic Research, Working Paper 31187, April 2023
== Endgame for the Ukrainian War ==
== Endgame for the Ukrainian War ==