Changes

In July of 2023, Professor [[John Joseph Mearsheimer]] indicated that he believes that the will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine]). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time.  

In July of 2023, Professor [[John Joseph Mearsheimer]] indicated that he believes that the will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine]). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time.  

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZ_DZSHHRMc Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18]</ref> I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZ_DZSHHRMc Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18]</ref>  

On August 23, 2023, ''Axios'' reported: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."<ref>[https://www.axios.com/2023/08/23/white-house-ukraine-war-aid-congress-support White House tells Ukraine, allies that Congress will back more war aid], Axios, 2023</ref> By November of 2023, after a failed Spring offensive by Ukraine, a Ukrainian top aide was slamming the West over their war fatigue.<ref>[https://www.politico.eu/article/top-zelenskyy-aide-slams-west-over-war-fatigue/ Zelenskyy’s top aide slams West over ‘war fatigue’], Politico, 2023</ref>

On August 23, 2023, ''Axios'' reported: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."<ref>[https://www.axios.com/2023/08/23/white-house-ukraine-war-aid-congress-support White House tells Ukraine, allies that Congress will back more war aid], Axios, 2023</ref> By November of 2023, after a failed Spring offensive by Ukraine, a Ukrainian top aide was slamming the West over their war fatigue.<ref>[https://www.politico.eu/article/top-zelenskyy-aide-slams-west-over-war-fatigue/ Zelenskyy’s top aide slams West over ‘war fatigue’], Politico, 2023</ref>

"They're grown men now, and they aren't that healthy to begin with," a close aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Time. "This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia."<ref>[https://www.businessinsider.com/average-age-ukrainian-soldier-43-amid-personnel-problems-2023-11 The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems], Business Insider, 2023</ref>}}

"They're grown men now, and they aren't that healthy to begin with," a close aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Time. "This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia."<ref>[https://www.businessinsider.com/average-age-ukrainian-soldier-43-amid-personnel-problems-2023-11 The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems], Business Insider, 2023</ref>}}

Also, any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]] and [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state. In addition, I predict that American/NATO taxpayers will continue to pay for this boondoggle with their tax money for several more years.

 

Also, any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]] and [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state.  

Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.

Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.