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Now that we've examined the Abraham Accords, let's point out the obvious. With countries like Saudi Arabia in the alliance, the Abraham Accords at its full potential would pose not just a threat to the Iranian regime, but an ''existential'' threat to both the Iranian nation-state and the Iranian people. In the event of war, Saudi Arabia and its puppets would use their respective navies to cross the Strait of Hormuz and invade Iran from the south, and then (very likely) launch an Operation Barbarossa-like war of extermination. Because the Wahhabi fanatics which run those countries have long harbored genocidal hatred towards Shias in general and would gladly implement a "final solution" against them if given the opportunity. And of course, this is exactly what the neocons want. Iran knows all of this, and thus has every reason to prevent such an attack from happening at any cost.

Now that we've examined the Abraham Accords, let's point out the obvious. With countries like Saudi Arabia in the alliance, the Abraham Accords at its full potential would pose not just a threat to the Iranian regime, but an ''existential'' threat to both the Iranian nation-state and the Iranian people. In the event of war, Saudi Arabia and its puppets would use their respective navies to cross the Strait of Hormuz and invade Iran from the south, and then (very likely) launch an Operation Barbarossa-like war of extermination. Because the Wahhabi fanatics which run those countries have long harbored genocidal hatred towards Shias in general and would gladly implement a "final solution" against them if given the opportunity. And of course, this is exactly what the neocons want. Iran knows all of this, and thus has every reason to prevent such an attack from happening at any cost.

Now, in the face of this enormous threat, if Iran wanted to strike early then it had just two options. Either attack the Gulf states or attack Israel. On the surface level, the most logical by option by far would've been to attack the Gulf states. After all, they are the ones who genocide the Iranian people. When it comes to Iran, Israel just wants to be left alone, and only aligned with the Gulf States against Iran because of the many, many threats Iran has made against it over the last several decades. However, from a purely strategic standpoint the most logical option for Iran would've in fact been to attack Israel. Why? Because while attacking the Gulf states would've strengthened the Abraham Accords, attacking Israel would weaken and possibly destroy them. By attacking Israel, specifically through Hamas, not only would Iran be able to (indirectly) manipulate its Arab enemies into abandoning the Abraham Accords in solidarity with the Palestinians, it would also be able to (indirectly) manipulate Israel into waging a response so brutal that it would lose much of the sympathy it received from the international community in the immediate aftermath of the October 7 attack. And guess what? After Iran attacked Israel through Hamas, both of those things ultimately happened.  

Now, in the face of this enormous threat, if Iran wanted to strike early (which perhaps it had no choice but to do) then it had just two options. Either attack the Gulf states or attack Israel. On the surface level, the most logical by option by far would've been to attack the Gulf states. After all, they are the ones who genocide the Iranian people. When it comes to Iran, Israel just wants to be left alone, and only aligned with the Gulf States against Iran because of the many, many threats Iran has made against it over the last several decades. However, from a purely strategic standpoint the most logical option for Iran would've in fact been to attack Israel. Why? Because while attacking the Gulf states would've strengthened the Abraham Accords, attacking Israel would weaken and possibly destroy them. By attacking Israel, specifically through Hamas, not only would Iran be able to (indirectly) manipulate its Arab enemies into abandoning the Abraham Accords in solidarity with the Palestinians, it would also be able to (indirectly) manipulate Israel into waging a response so brutal that it would lose much of the sympathy it received from the international community in the immediate aftermath of the October 7 attack. And guess what? After Iran attacked Israel through Hamas, both of those things ultimately happened.  

As horrific and evil as the events of October 7 were, I can't help but wonder if the Iranian regime is in fact much smarter than we give it credit for. That it's capable of such foresight. I've previously suspected that the Iranian regime chose to attack Israel solely due to its antisemitic prejudices, but now I'm seriously reconsidering that position, despite still being ''very'' open to it.

As horrific and evil as the events of October 7 were, I can't help but wonder if the Iranian regime is in fact much smarter than we give it credit for. That it's capable of such foresight. I've previously suspected that the Iranian regime chose to attack Israel solely due to its antisemitic prejudices, but now I'm seriously reconsidering that position, despite still being ''very'' open to it.