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Electoral College simulations (view source)

Revision as of 02:49, June 16, 2024

264 bytes added ,  02:49, June 16, 2024
FiveThirtyEight predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. But while Biden leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three as he needs to prevail.
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'''Electoral College simulations''' is the forecasting methodology used by ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'' and ''[[The Hill]]'' for predicting the outcome of an upcoming election, such as the [[2024 presidential election]].
 
'''Electoral College simulations''' is the forecasting methodology used by ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'' and ''[[The Hill]]'' for predicting the outcome of an upcoming election, such as the [[2024 presidential election]].
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As of June 15, 2024, ''FifthThirtyEight'' said that:
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As of June 15, 2024, ''FiveThirtyEight'' said that:
 
{{cquote|Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
 
{{cquote|Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
 
Biden wins 49 times out of 100.
 
Biden wins 49 times out of 100.
 
<br>There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/</ref>}}
 
<br>There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/</ref>}}
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Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in [[Wisconsin]], [[Michigan]], or [[Pennsylvania]].  But while [[Biden]] leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three as he needs to prevail.
 
== References ==
 
== References ==
 
{{reflist}}
 
{{reflist}}
 
[[category:elections]]
 
[[category:elections]]
 
[[category:politics]]
 
[[category:politics]]
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