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| | Of one issue: Abortion. '''Intimating women''' - rather. Not for any other major issue.[[User:Telling|Telling]] ([[User talk:Telling|talk]]) 09:11, November 3, 2024 (EST) | | Of one issue: Abortion. '''Intimating women''' - rather. Not for any other major issue.[[User:Telling|Telling]] ([[User talk:Telling|talk]]) 09:11, November 3, 2024 (EST) |
| − | :I doubt Harris will win. The [https://atlasintel.org/media/atlasintel-is-confirmed-as-the-most-accurate-pollster-of-the-2020-presidential-election most reliable polling companies in 2020] predict [https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris Trump winning the 2024 election in the swing states] and the political betting markets favor Trump too[https://electionbettingodds.com/][https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president] (Since the 1800s, the political betting markets have only been wrong twice when it comes to presidential elections[https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/07/10/2024-presidential-election-odds/74341823007/]). The conservative [[Steve Turley]] gave some counterarguments to Trump not winning, but he explained why they all seemed very unlikely. I realize that very unlikely things do happen, so it's not totally impossible that Kamala Harris will win, but it does appear to be unlikely. On the other hand, Harris does have a 46.3% chance of winning according to https://electionbettingodds.com/ which uses a weighted average of all the political betting markets. | + | :I doubt Harris will win. The [https://atlasintel.org/media/atlasintel-is-confirmed-as-the-most-accurate-pollster-of-the-2020-presidential-election most reliable polling companies in 2020] predict [https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris Trump winning the 2024 election in the swing states] and the political betting markets favor Trump too[https://electionbettingodds.com/][https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president] (Since the 1800s, the political betting markets have only been wrong twice when it comes to presidential elections[https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/07/10/2024-presidential-election-odds/74341823007/]). The conservative [[Steve Turley]] gave [https://www.youtube.com/embed/lnMnwIbvH1Q?si=Sa4aObX5beKi_Fu8&start=3805 some counterarguments to Trump not winning, but he explained why they all seemed very unlikely]. I realize that very unlikely things do happen, so it's not totally impossible that Kamala Harris will win, but it does appear to be unlikely. On the other hand, Harris does have a 46.3% chance of winning according to https://electionbettingodds.com/ which uses a weighted average of all the political betting markets. |
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| | :Lately, people have been voting against the opposition more when it comes to their sentiments and the Not Kamala Harris sentiments does seem stronger than the anti-Trump sentiment due to her being a vacuous, flipper flopper who doesn't offer any solutions and this is obviously why she mainly does softball interviews that she often flubs. Maybe she has the intellectual capacity to understand issues, but she doesn't do the requisite study of the issues because she is lazy and/or lacks [[intellectual humility]]/curiosity. | | :Lately, people have been voting against the opposition more when it comes to their sentiments and the Not Kamala Harris sentiments does seem stronger than the anti-Trump sentiment due to her being a vacuous, flipper flopper who doesn't offer any solutions and this is obviously why she mainly does softball interviews that she often flubs. Maybe she has the intellectual capacity to understand issues, but she doesn't do the requisite study of the issues because she is lazy and/or lacks [[intellectual humility]]/curiosity. |
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| | Harris now has a 44.9% chance of winning the election according to https://electionbettingodds.com/ which uses a weighted average of all the political betting markets. So it has gone slightly down since November 3, 2024 when I last reported the odds at 46.3% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 06:20, November 4, 2024 (EST) | | Harris now has a 44.9% chance of winning the election according to https://electionbettingodds.com/ which uses a weighted average of all the political betting markets. So it has gone slightly down since November 3, 2024 when I last reported the odds at 46.3% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 06:20, November 4, 2024 (EST) |
| | :::Another point: door knocking... Harris knocked 807k in PA alone.[[User:Telling|Telling]] ([[User talk:Telling|talk]]) 10:10, November 4, 2024 (EST) | | :::Another point: door knocking... Harris knocked 807k in PA alone.[[User:Telling|Telling]] ([[User talk:Telling|talk]]) 10:10, November 4, 2024 (EST) |
| | + | ::::I alluded to [[Steve Turley]] mentioned scenarios where Kamala Harris could win. Here are the scenarios: [https://www.youtube.com/embed/lnMnwIbvH1Q?si=Sa4aObX5beKi_Fu8&start=3805 Steve Turley: What could go wrong that would cause Kamala Harris to win?]. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 11:50, November 4, 2024 (EST) |
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| | == NBC's SNL equal time case == | | == NBC's SNL equal time case == |