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Talk:Essay: Communist China’s quixotic quest to innovate: A statist economy can’t make creativity greatly blossom (view source)
Revision as of 03:39, November 30, 2025
, 03:39, November 30, 2025→China Just Triggered U.S. Tech Panic, Unthinkable USD Disaster In 2026, Trump $21T Massive SHORT
::"Yes, the calibrated probabilities in my "Thinking in Bets" analysis (US edge at 55%, China overtake at 25%, stalemate/hybrid at 20% through 2030) are informed by a synthesis of recent expert reports, benchmarks, and forecasts rather than a single probabilistic model. These odds reflect a forward-looking assessment balancing US strengths (e.g., private investment, talent attraction) against China's rapid catch-up (e.g., model parity, deployment scale), with uncertainty baked in via geopolitical and technological wildcards. Below, I detail the key supporting sources, grouped by rationale pillars from the table, with direct ties to the evidence. All data is current as of November 2025."[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA_cb7023ca-b41c-472f-bbf9-128818aa523b] [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 20:47, November 29, 2025 (EST)
::"Yes, the calibrated probabilities in my "Thinking in Bets" analysis (US edge at 55%, China overtake at 25%, stalemate/hybrid at 20% through 2030) are informed by a synthesis of recent expert reports, benchmarks, and forecasts rather than a single probabilistic model. These odds reflect a forward-looking assessment balancing US strengths (e.g., private investment, talent attraction) against China's rapid catch-up (e.g., model parity, deployment scale), with uncertainty baked in via geopolitical and technological wildcards. Below, I detail the key supporting sources, grouped by rationale pillars from the table, with direct ties to the evidence. All data is current as of November 2025."[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA_cb7023ca-b41c-472f-bbf9-128818aa523b] [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 20:47, November 29, 2025 (EST)
:::Ok. We get the point. You are incapable of your own analysis or [[critical thinking]]. What else is new? [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Zelensky Must Go!'']]</sup> 21:45, November 29, 2025 (EST)
:::Ok. We get the point. You are incapable of your own analysis or [[critical thinking]]. What else is new? [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Zelensky Must Go!'']]</sup> 21:45, November 29, 2025 (EST)
::::"'''China's brain drain, while a notable vulnerability (rated 65/100 in severity)''', is increasingly mitigated by reverse migration trends, with 2025 seeing a "slow acceleration" of US-trained researchers returning home amid enhanced domestic opportunities in AI, tech, and academia. Annually, 20,000–25,000 US-educated Chinese graduates stay in the US '''(80–85% of the cohort)''', contributing to talent imbalances but also bolstering US innovation—though tightening US policies and China's pull factors (e.g., competitive salaries, new visas) may reduce this outflow by 10–20% in coming years. Overall, the dynamic favors mutual "brain gain" over pure drain, but sustained economic pressures in China could elevate risks if unaddressed."[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA_862fb06e-2c5d-4503-978e-3c0632489266] [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 22:39, November 29, 2025 (EST)
==[https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/Chinas-Private-Sector-Unveils-Mass-Produced-Hypersonic-Missile-YKJ-1000--at-110th-Cost/ A private sector firm in China has reduced the cost of hypersonic missiles by 90%. These will now be very affordable for smaller countries to buy.]==
==[https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/Chinas-Private-Sector-Unveils-Mass-Produced-Hypersonic-Missile-YKJ-1000--at-110th-Cost/ A private sector firm in China has reduced the cost of hypersonic missiles by 90%. These will now be very affordable for smaller countries to buy.]==