| − | :Here's the key to understanding the [[military]] situation: [[Zaporozhe]] will fall in 5 months. To take [[Odessa]] (and make [[Ukraine]] landlocked, cutting off its [[tariff]]-free [[trade]] in perpetuity with the rest of the [[planet]]), it must be approached from the north, meaning [[Nikolaev]] must be taken first. Nikolaev cannot be taken from [[Kherson]] because of the difficulty of river crossings (recall, Russia earlier [[Kherson#Russian_withdrawal_from_west_bank|withdrew from all territories west of the Dnieper]].) Therefore, the Dnieper River crossing has to occur at Zaporozhe, and the territories north of the Kakhovka Reservoir (where the [[Zaporozhe NPP]] sites on the south bank) have to be secured before an approach on Nikolaev ([[Kherson]] will eventually fall due to this northern approach, rather than a front-on approach across the river delta). [[Dnipropetrovsk]] & [[Kharkov]] can be by-passed for now (but that won't preclude [[NATO]]/[[Ukraine]] from dumping tens of thousands of lives, needlessly, into a [[meatgrinder]] to defend dummy attacks). [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Zelensky Must Go!'']]</sup> 16:09, December 4, 2025 (EST) | + | :Here's the key to understanding the [[military]] situation: [[Zaporozhe]] will fall in 5 months. To take [[Odessa]] (and make [[Ukraine]] landlocked, cutting off its [[tariff]]-free [[trade]] in perpetuity with the rest of the [[planet]]), it must be approached from the north, meaning [[Nikolaev]] must be taken first. Nikolaev cannot be taken from [[Kherson]] because of the difficulty of river crossings (recall, Russia earlier [[Kherson#Russian_withdrawal_from_west_bank|withdrew from all territories west of the Dnieper]].) Therefore, the Dnieper River crossing has to occur at Zaporozhe, and the territories north of the [[Kherson#Nova_Kakhovka_dam|Kakhovka Reservoir]] (where the [[Zaporozhe NPP]] sites on the south bank) have to be secured before an approach on Nikolaev ([[Kherson]] will eventually fall due to this northern approach, rather than a front-on approach across the river delta). [[Dnipropetrovsk]] & [[Kharkov]] can be by-passed for now (but that won't preclude [[NATO]]/[[Ukraine]] from dumping tens of thousands of lives, needlessly, into a [[meatgrinder]] to defend dummy attacks). [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Zelensky Must Go!'']]</sup> 16:09, December 4, 2025 (EST) |