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→Economy
[[File:Screenshot 27-3-2026 105939.jpeg|center|650px|thumb|]]
[[File:Screenshot 27-3-2026 105939.jpeg|center|650px|thumb|]]
*[https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/black-swan-or-swan-song Black swan or swan song]
*[https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/black-swan-or-swan-song Black swan or swan song]
:"The trigger would be [[US]] defeat against [[Iran]], with a much stronger and influential Iran emerging controlling traffic in the [[strait of Hormuz]] and liberating the [[oil]] producing regions of the [[ME]] from American domination – as well as the rule of the [[dollar]]. Tolls on the Strait of Hormuz will favor the [[petroyuan]]....Without the ability to “bomb” or occupy, the U.S. loses its only remaining leverage to prevent countries from leaving the dollar system—that is, if the US loses and is forced to give up its military domination of the ME.
:"According to [[Michael Hudson]]’s analysis, if the U.S. were to “lose” against Iran and be forced to withdraw from the [[Middle East]], the “[[Treasury Bill]] Standard”—which has funded the [[U.S.]] [[economy]] and [[military]] for decades—would collapse .
:"Right now, the US has a “free lunch” because [[foreign]] [[central bank]]s are forced to recycle their dollar surpluses largely from oil back into [[U.S. Treasury bond]]s to maintain their own [[exchange rate]]s. But if the US loses, it can no longer coerce foreign nations into holding dollars, which would end the US’ ability to run massive [[deficit]]s without facing high [[interest rate]]s or a [[currency]] crash.
:"Iran has already begun charging ships $2 million to pass through the [[Strait of Hormuz]] as “advance payments” for [[war]] [[reparations]]. A U.S. withdrawal would likely codify this and accelerate the shift toward oil being priced in [[Yuan]], [[Rupee]]s, or local currencies. Most countries would not need to hold the large dollar reserves they need now. And the US would not be able to skim off the top. .
:"The U.S. would become isolated -- unable to trade its paper [[IOU]]s for real physical goods. At the same time, its high-cost, [[financial]]ized [[economy]] would inhibit reindustrialization. The US’s only real [[commodity]] is [[debt]].
:"To attract buyers for its $34 trillion debt the U.S. would have to offer significantly higher [[interest rate]]s – which we already see happening. Unable to [[export]] [[inflation]] to fund [[military spending]], it would face soaring inflation — and would likely cut [[domestic spending]], leading to both [[economic]] and [[social]] instability . Remember the [[Weimar Republic]].
:"A US defeat would accelerate the shift of the “Global Majority” ([[BRICS+]]) to financial alternatives leaving [[The Wesr|the “West”]] in an long-term [[economic]] [[depression]]. Listen to what [[Alastair Crooke]] says. US defeat is the end of the [[PetroDollar]] and [[US]] [[hegemony]].
:"[[Michael Hudson|[Michael] Hudson]] characterizes [[U.S.]] as a [[Mafia]] state and its [[military]] presence as a “protection racket”. Without the ability to “[[bomb]]” or occupy, the U.S. loses its only remaining leverage to prevent countries from leaving the [[Petrodollar|[petro]dollar]] system."
:"[[Michael Hudson|[Michael] Hudson]] characterizes [[U.S.]] as a [[Mafia]] state and its [[military]] presence as a “protection racket”. Without the ability to “[[bomb]]” or occupy, the U.S. loses its only remaining leverage to prevent countries from leaving the [[Petrodollar|[petro]dollar]] system."