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The '''2026 midterm elections''', held on November 3, 2026 but with primaries beginning on March 3, and [[early voting]] throughout October, will decide which political party controls [[Congress]] beginning January 2027, for the second half of the [[Trump 2.0]] administration. Typically, the party not in the [[White House]], in this case the [[Democrat Party]], gains seats in the midterm election.
The '''2026 midterm elections''', held on November 3, 2026 but with primaries beginning on March 3, and [[early voting]] throughout October, will decide which political party controls [[Congress]] beginning January 2027, for the second half of the [[Trump 2.0]] administration. Typically, the party not in the [[White House]], in this case the [[Democrat Party]], gains seats in the midterm election.
As [[GOP]] leadership in [[Washington, D.C.|D.C]] loses touch with the [[grassroots]] and particularly [[Gen Z]], '''[[Dem]]s are expected to win the [[House]] and a narrow majority in the [[Senate]] by taking [[GOP]] seats in [[Maine]] and [[North Carolina]], and two-out-of-four in [[Ohio]], [[Texas]], [[Iowa]], and/or [[Alaska]]'''. There is [[grassroots]] outrage against [[data center]]s supported by [[GOP]] leadership, particularly in several of these states.<ref>[https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/we-just-need-to-step-on-the-gas-ramaswamy-tells-ohio-chamber-forum/ITLSY6FIJ5HBHCHVGEVXNVOG6Y/#:~:text=Electricity%20costs%20generally%20are%20about%2050%25%20higher,of%20baseload%20coal%20and%20gas%2Dfired%20power%20sources (Ramaswamy's statement on data centers)].</ref> In Texas there is an unusually competitive primary race between incumbent Senator [[John Cornyn]] and Texas Attorney General [[Ken Paxton]].
As [[GOP]] leadership in [[Washington, D.C.|D.C]] loses touch with the [[grassroots]] and particularly [[Gen Z]], '''[[Dem]]s are expected to win the [[House]] and a narrow majority in the [[Senate]] by taking [[GOP]] seats in [[Maine]] and [[North Carolina]], and two-out-of-four in [[Ohio]], [[Texas]], [[Iowa]], and/or [[Alaska]]'''. There is [[grassroots]] outrage against [[data center]]s supported by [[GOP]] leadership, particularly in several of these states.<ref>[https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/we-just-need-to-step-on-the-gas-ramaswamy-tells-ohio-chamber-forum/ITLSY6FIJ5HBHCHVGEVXNVOG6Y/#:~:text=Electricity%20costs%20generally%20are%20about%2050%25%20higher,of%20baseload%20coal%20and%20gas%2Dfired%20power%20sources (Ramaswamy's statement on data centers)].</ref>
== Senate ==
== Senate ==
Sen. [[Thom Tillis]] (R-NC) has declined to run for reelection in the [[swing state]] of [[North Carolina]] to avoid a likely defeat. Trump won this state by 50.9% to 47.7%.
Sen. [[Thom Tillis]] (R-NC) has declined to run for reelection in the [[swing state]] of [[North Carolina]] to avoid a likely defeat. Trump won this state by 50.9% to 47.7%.
In Texas incumbent Senator [[John Cornyn]] was defeated in a primary runoff by Texas Attorney General [[Ken Paxton]]. Early polls have Paxton in a tight race with Democrat [[James Talarico]]. A [[Libertarian Party]] candidate, Ted Brown, is also running; polls have him between 1-4% of the vote. Talarico's chances of flipping the seat blue depend on whether Cornyn's voters decide to vote for Paxton or sit the race out.
The widely cited [[Cook Political Report]] stated as of October 2025 that there are only 4 tossup seats, 2 held by [[Dem]]s ([[Georgia]] and [[Michigan]]) and 2 held by [[Republican]]s ([[Maine]] and [[North Carolina]]).<ref>https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings</ref>
The widely cited [[Cook Political Report]] stated as of October 2025 that there are only 4 tossup seats, 2 held by [[Dem]]s ([[Georgia]] and [[Michigan]]) and 2 held by [[Republican]]s ([[Maine]] and [[North Carolina]]).<ref>https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings</ref>