Changes

*[[Conflicts Forum]]: [https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/the-prospective-demise-of-saudi-arabia The Prospective Demise of Saudi Arabia].

*[[Conflicts Forum]]: [https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/the-prospective-demise-of-saudi-arabia The Prospective Demise of Saudi Arabia].

{{quotebox-float|So you know it is a question mark and this major conflict with [[Aramco]] [the world's largest [[corporation]] - being slowly dismantled. [[Saudi Arabia]] not having [[income]]. It's not just the [[war]] in terms of kinetic war but it is the [[economic]] war. The Saudis pay for their [[import]]s by selling [[oil]]. 82% I think or something like that 80% of their [[revenue]]s go to imports, cost of imports. At the moment they don't sell oil. So what happens? Well, you've got two choices really. Either you devalue the [[currency]], your currency, because otherwise the [[trade deficit]] will be huge and Saudi Arabia already has about $520 billion of [[debt]]. It has $420 billion of foreign exchange reserves. But I mean if you have a big [[trade deficit]] because you haven't got [[revenue]] to pay for your [[import]]s, yet your people want imports because it is, you know, a very [[consumer]]ist [[society]] and they're used to that. So if you can't do that, then you have to devalue the [[currency]]. But that means breaking the peg [with the [[dollar]] ] and what would be the consequence on other [[Gulf states]] that are on a [[dollar]] peg and would that start around on that. Secondly, you start try to sell your foreign exchange reserves but think what happened with [[Japan]]. Japan started to sell its foreign exchange reserves, but far less. It was about $89 billion or something like that off the top of my head, but far less and Saudi would have to spend to keep up the level of [[import]]s with no [[revenue]]. So, um far less. So, what would that do to the [[American]] [[bond market]]? that would you know cuz the Japanese brought about a major [[crisis]]. This could bring about an even greater uh crisis in the American bond market and I doubt the president would allow it. So, you know, it seems that [[Saudi Arabia]] is really in an economic trap as well as a trap of the destruction of its [[infrastructure]] and of its lack of anyone willing to come or able to help it. And the final dilemma of course [[Muhammad bin Salman]] is not willing really to capitulate to the [[Houthis]] in their demands because their demands are couched in terms of a complete end to the [[war]] - port for port - airport for airport - all of that has to be resuscitated. What they don't mention and isn't part of their demands as far as I know at this point is the three provinces that Saudi Arabia expropriated, I think 1934 at that time anyway..."}}

{{quotebox-float|So you know it is a question mark and this major conflict with [[Aramco]] [the world's largest [[corporation]] - being slowly dismantled. [[Saudi Arabia]] not having [[income]]. It's not just the [[war]] in terms of kinetic war but it is the [[economic]] war. The Saudis pay for their [[import]]s by selling [[oil]]. 82% I think or something like that 80% of their [[revenue]]s go to imports, cost of imports. At the moment they don't sell oil. So what happens? Well, you've got two choices really. Either you devalue the [[currency]], your currency, because otherwise the [[trade deficit]] will be huge and Saudi Arabia already has about $520 billion of [[debt]]. It has $420 billion of foreign exchange reserves. But I mean if you have a big [[trade deficit]] because you haven't got [[revenue]] to pay for your [[import]]s, yet your people want imports because it is, you know, a very [[consumer]]ist [[society]] and they're used to that. So if you can't do that, then you have to devalue the [[currency]]. But that means breaking the peg [with the [[dollar]] ] and what would be the consequence on other [[Gulf states]] that are on a [[dollar]] peg and would that start around on that. Secondly, you start try to sell your foreign exchange reserves but think what happened with [[Japan]]. Japan started to sell its foreign exchange reserves, but far less. It was about $89 billion or something like that off the top of my head, but far less and Saudi would have to spend to keep up the level of [[import]]s with no [[revenue]]. So, um far less. So, what would that do to the [[American]] [[bond market]]? that would you know cuz the Japanese brought about a major [[crisis]]. This could bring about an even greater uh crisis in the American bond market and I doubt the president would allow it. So, you know, it seems that [[Saudi Arabia]] is really in an economic trap as well as a trap of the destruction of its [[infrastructure]] and of its lack of anyone willing to come or able to help it. And the final dilemma of course [[Muhammad bin Salman]] is not willing really to capitulate to the [[Houthis]] in their demands because their demands are couched in terms of a complete end to the [[war]] - port for port - airport for airport - all of that has to be resuscitated. What they don't mention and isn't part of their demands as far as I know at this point is the three provinces that Saudi Arabia expropriated, I think 1934 at that time anyway..."}}

===South Asia===

===South Asia===