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'''"Correlation is not causation"''' is the unofficial motto of [[modern science]]. When we observe that two things generally or always happen together, it is natural to wonder whether one may be [[causation|causing]] the other. However, it is also possible that both are caused by a third thing. It's even possible that we haven't observed enough cases, and the whole thing is a coincidence.  

'''"Correlation is not causation"''' is the unofficial motto of [[modern science]]. When we observe that two things generally or always happen together, it is natural to wonder whether one may be [[causation|causing]] the other. A [[correlation]] between two variables does not always mean that one variable has caused a change in the other. Often a third variable is causing both, such as shark attacks and ice cream sales. These two factors may correlate, but they are not directly related. Rather, both go up each summer as people go swimming at ocean beaches.  

 

It is a [[logical fallacy]] to assume that correlation implies causation. Correlation does not prove causality, but non-correlation proves non-causality. <ref>http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm#Message5980</ref>

 

 

 

 

#There may be a confounding factor causing A ''and'' B

 

 

#As sales of ice cream rise, so do reports of shark attacks

 

'''Flaw:''' Shark attacks and ice cream sales follow a seasonal pattern. Both rise in the summer months. The seasons are a confounding variable.

 

#Since the construction of a stadium began in Alaska, the value of your home in Texas has risen

 

'''Flaw:''' This is a coincidence between unrelated variables.

 

==Correlation vs. Causation in Science==

The difference between [[science]] and [[superstition]] lies in the ways an idea is tested. Scientists test a [[theory]] by drawing conclusions from it, [[hypotheses]] which can be confirmed or contradicted by observation.

The difference between [[science]] and [[superstition]] lies in the ways an idea is tested. Scientists test a [[theory]] by drawing conclusions from it, [[hypotheses]] which can be confirmed or contradicted by observation.

===References===

===References===

{{reflist|2}}

{{reflist|2}}

[[Category:Logic]]

[[Category:logical fallacy]]