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Correlation is not causation (view source)
Revision as of 19:34, June 14, 2008
, 19:34, June 14, 2008formatting, added another example to have one for each of the three flawed deductions
This is flawed because:
This is flawed because:
#There may be a confounding factor causing A ''and'' B
#There may be a third, confounding variable C which causes A ''and'' B
#B may cause A
#B may cause A
#The relationship may be a complete coincidence
#The relationship may be a complete coincidence
==Examples==
==Examples==
1.
Hypothesis: As sales of ice cream rise, so do reports of shark attacks.
Conclusion: High sales of ice cream cause shark attacks.
'''Flaw:''' Shark attacks and ice cream sales follow a seasonal pattern. Both rise in the summer months. The seasons are a confounding variable.
'''Flaw:''' Shark attacks and ice cream sales follow a seasonal pattern. Both rise in the summer months. The seasons are a confounding variable.
2.
Hypothesis: The more people convert to Christianity, the more powerful God becomes.
Conclusion: God gains power from his followers.
'''Flaw:''' God is already all-powerful. His magnificence is what draws people to conversion. B causes A.
3.
Hypothesis: Since the construction of a stadium began in Alaska, the value of your home in Texas has risen.
Conclusion: Stadium construction in Alaska causes higher home values in Texas.
'''Flaw:''' This is a coincidence between unrelated variables.
'''Flaw:''' This is a coincidence between unrelated variables.