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Line 1: − + − ==First election without incumbents since 1928== − If eligible to do so, the President of the United States often runs for reelection. If the President does not run, the [[Vice President of the United States]] will often run to replace the President after he leaves office. 2008 will mark the first time since the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent President nor an incumbent Vice President running for his party's presidential nomination and thus not running in the Presidential election. In the [[United States presidential election of 1952]], the race was between Republican candidate [[Dwight D. Eisenhower]] and Democratic candidate [[Adlai Stevenson]]. Vice President [[Alben Barkley]] sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination. Current Vice President [[Dick Cheney]] had made it clear he would not run for President. "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve," Cheney said on ''[[Fox News]] Sunday''. Line 16:
Line 14: − + − + − In an odd move, Obama called upon his supporters to skip work to make sure they would vote and to get out the vote in their neighborhoods. In a sense, it would help disrupt productivity in America at a time when there was already a fear that the country was in a [[recession]] and severly pushed the law that allows employees to take time off from work to vote if they could not vote otherwise. Almost half of black Americans planned to take the day off, as did 21% of people who had already voted. 94% of Republicans planned on being at work.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/one_third_of_obama_voters_plan_to_be_out_today</ref> Line 63:
Line 60: − − Most polling does not include third party candidates. While that was an issue back in May when Barr attracted 6% of the vote in four way polling and Nader 4%<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_race</ref>, it became a virutal non-issue as the election drew near. Third party candidates generally have much lower percentage of votes cast for them than they poll beforehand, and this election followed that pattern. − − When possible, polling is reported without counting 'leaners'. Leaners early on were favoring McCain, but that become less of an issue as the election progressed. As the election drew closer, most polls dropped leaners altogether. − − Due to the nature of the presidential election where Presidents are elected on a state by state basis instead of total votes received nationwide, it is possible for a candidate to win the Presidency while losing the popular vote. This was meaningful if the election was within a point or two, but ultimately did not prove to be an issue in this election. − − It should be noted that except for a few polls like Rasmussen, which stayed very consistent with only small moving changes, most polling numbers right before the election were off the mark when predicting results and had a tendency to heavily favor Obama. There was some concern that this caused disheartened Republicans to be less likely to vote if they believed the election was already decided and Obama was going to win in a landslide. Indeed, in spite of all of the talk of the highest turnover ever, fewer Republicans voted this year than had voted in 2004. Line 77:
Line 66: − On paper, the nomination would seem to have heavily favored the Democrats. Overall, Democrat candidates have a +10% advantage over Republicans in a 'generic' election - the current unpopular President is a Republican, and the economy is treading water. Also, based on statistical percentages of articles on each candidate, Obama was being focused on by the press far more than McCain. When McCain chastised Obama for his lack of foreign policy experience and that he hadn't been to Iraq or Afghanistan in years, Obama's campaign set up for him to take a trip to both countries. While this is expected in politics, the decision of every major network to send a team of reporters to follow him was unprecedented. Obama spoke to 200,000 people in Berlin in a highly covered speech. McCain spoke to 50,000 in Buffalo shortly thereafter and barely got a whisper. Obama's numbers started to rise, but a good deal of the populace was noticing the disparity as 48% of those polled felt the press was trying to help Obama win.+
United States Presidential Election, 2008 (view source)
Revision as of 07:20, August 9, 2009
, 07:20, August 9, 2009update
[[Image:Gp_ppl_obama_mccain_flag-capitol.jpg|right|thumb|300px|Barack Obama and John McCain]]
[[Image:Gp_ppl_obama_mccain_flag-capitol.jpg|right|thumb|300px|Barack Obama and John McCain]]
[[Image:2008 US Electoral College Polling Map.png|right|300px|thumb|Results as of 18 November 2008]]
[[Image:2008 US Electoral College Polling Map.png|right|300px|thumb|Results as of 18 November 2008]]
The '''2008 United States Presidential Election''' took place on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.<ref>http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/</ref> with Barack Obama being voted in as the next President of the United States. [[Barack Obama|Senator Barack Obama]] of [[Illinois]], the [[Democratic Party]] nominee, with Senator [[Joe Biden]] of [[Delaware]] as his Vice Presidential running mate defeated Senator [[John McCain]] of [[Arizona]], the Republican candidate, and his Vice Presidential nominee, [[Alaska]] [[Governor]] [[Sarah Palin]].
The '''2008 United States Presidential Election''' took place on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.<ref>http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/</ref> with Barack Obama being voted in as the next President of the United States. [[Barack Obama|Senator Barack Obama]] of [[Illinois]], the [[Democratic Party]] nominee, with Senator [[Joe Biden]] of [[Delaware]] as his Vice Presidential running mate defeated Senator [[John McCain]] of [[Arizona]], the Republican candidate, and his Vice Presidential nominee, [[Alaska]] Governor [[Sarah Palin]].
==Differences between 2008 and other elections==
==Differences between 2008 and other elections==
In 2004, 64% of voters aged 18-29 were registered to vote. This year 75% of voters in that age group are registered. This demographic usually favors Democrats.
In 2004, 64% of voters aged 18-29 were registered to vote. This year 75% of voters in that age group are registered. This demographic usually favors Democrats.
== Uncommitted Electorate ==
== Fewer Uncommitted ==
Fewer people were undecided this election than in most previous elections. As of the beginning of October, 2008 approximately 6-8% of poll respondents were undecided, an amount that continued to decline as the election drew closer.
Fewer people were undecided this election than in most previous elections. As of the beginning of October, 2008 approximately 6-8% of poll respondents were undecided, an amount that continued to decline as the election drew closer.
== Election Day ==
== Election Day ==
The turnout was about normal, excepr for higher than usual rates among blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and voters under 30--all Obama groups. The turnout of evangelicals and whites was similar to 2004.
==Opinion polling==
==Opinion polling==
*RV refers to registered voters, LV refers to likely voters.
*RV refers to registered voters, LV refers to likely voters.
== McCain vs. Obama ==
== McCain vs. Obama ==
Obama's strategy was to tie McCain to George Bush, a very unpopular President, even though McCain was not a part of the Bush administration and often clashed with Bush during his time as senator. McCain, for his part, had to walk a fine line with accepting praise from the President to woo conservatives, while at the same time keeping enough distance so as to not alienate moderates. When possible, McCain went after Obama's lack of foreign policy experience.
Obama's strategy was to tie McCain to George Bush, a very unpopular President, even though McCain was not a part of the Bush administration and often clashed with Bush during his time as senator. McCain, for his part, had to walk a fine line with accepting praise from the President to woo conservatives, while at the same time keeping enough distance so as to not alienate moderates. When possible, McCain went after Obama's lack of foreign policy experience.
The trends heavily favored the Democrats, especially after their major gains in 2006. Overall, Democrat candidates have a +10% advantage over Republicans in a 'generic' election - the current unpopular President is a Republican, and the economy is treading water. Also, based on statistical percentages of articles on each candidate, Obama was being focused on by the press far more than McCain. When McCain chastised Obama for his lack of foreign policy experience and that he hadn't been to Iraq or Afghanistan in years, Obama's campaign set up for him to take a trip to both countries. While this is expected in politics, the decision of every major network to send a team of reporters to follow him was unprecedented. Obama spoke to 200,000 people in Berlin in a highly covered speech. McCain spoke to 50,000 in Buffalo shortly thereafter and barely got a whisper. Obama's numbers started to rise, but a good deal of the populace was noticing the disparity as 48% of those polled felt the press was trying to help Obama win.
Obama seemed pleased to coast on his advantages, but McCain realized he needed to shake things up. He scored by pushing offshore drilling for oil during a time when oil prices were climbing almost daily. Obama rejected the idea, but the poll numbers started to show a greater percentage of Americans warming to the concept<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/61_say_congress_should_vote_on_offshore_drilling_right_now Offshore Drilling poll]</ref> and McCain's numbers started to improve. Obama announced he would accept some measure of offshore drilling, and McCain's momentum was halted and his gains retreated by a couple of points. McCain started an ad campaign that acknowledged Obama's celebrity status, but asking what it meant. A few days later at the start of August he called out Obama for 'playing the race card' when Obama made a reference to McCain and Bush trying to scare people because he (Obama) doesn't look like other Presidents on dollar bills. The Democrats fired back, but quickly let the issue drop when poll numbers showed that most voters did consider Obama's statement to be racist.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/only_22_say_mccain_ad_racist_but_over_half_53_see_obama_dollar_bill_comment_that_way</ref>. The bounce for Obama after the Berlin speech shrank back to pre-trip levels. While Obama continued to enjoy a slight lead in the polls, McCain continued to keep the race close without either candidate breaking away.
Obama seemed pleased to coast on his advantages, but McCain realized he needed to shake things up. He scored by pushing offshore drilling for oil during a time when oil prices were climbing almost daily. Obama rejected the idea, but the poll numbers started to show a greater percentage of Americans warming to the concept<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/61_say_congress_should_vote_on_offshore_drilling_right_now Offshore Drilling poll]</ref> and McCain's numbers started to improve. Obama announced he would accept some measure of offshore drilling, and McCain's momentum was halted and his gains retreated by a couple of points. McCain started an ad campaign that acknowledged Obama's celebrity status, but asking what it meant. A few days later at the start of August he called out Obama for 'playing the race card' when Obama made a reference to McCain and Bush trying to scare people because he (Obama) doesn't look like other Presidents on dollar bills. The Democrats fired back, but quickly let the issue drop when poll numbers showed that most voters did consider Obama's statement to be racist.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/only_22_say_mccain_ad_racist_but_over_half_53_see_obama_dollar_bill_comment_that_way</ref>. The bounce for Obama after the Berlin speech shrank back to pre-trip levels. While Obama continued to enjoy a slight lead in the polls, McCain continued to keep the race close without either candidate breaking away.