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Line 87: − − == State by State Breakdown == − [[Image:Presidential election map.gif|right|thumb|350px|Battleground states]] The United States had become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates: − − State, margin of victory, party that won the state in 2004 − − #Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem) − #Iowa, 0.67% (Repub) − #New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub) − #New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem) − #Ohio, 2.11% (Repub) − #Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem) − #Nevada, 2.59% (Repub) − #Michigan, 3.42% (Dem) − #Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem) − − It is assumed that the 2008 election will be similar where close battles in a few states could determine the outcome. Individual state polling numbers for the 2008 election are provided. Similar to the overall election where the number of undecided voters is quickly dwindling, the numbers are coming much close to approaching the full 100% than they were earlier in the campaign. This requires a candidate changing a voter's mind to improve his standing, a much harder task than simply convincing an undecided. − − * Red = McCain leading − * Blue = Obama leading − − {| class="wikitable" − |- − ! State − ! Obama (D) − ! McCain (R) − ! Source − ! Updated − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Alabama − |39% − |60% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alabama/election_2008_alabama_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |09/22/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Alaska − |41% − |57% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election Rasmussen] − | 10/28/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Arkansas − |44% − |54% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arkansas/election_2008_arkansas_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/27/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Arizona − |46% − |51% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arizona/election_2008_arizona_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/26/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |California − |61% − |34% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |11/02/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Colorado − |51% − |47% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/26/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Connecticut − |56% − |39% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/connecticut/election_2008_connecticut_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/14/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Delaware − |56% − |41% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/delaware/election_2008_delaware_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/10/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Florida − |49% − |50% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |11/02/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Georgia − |47% − |52% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/30/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Hawaii − |61% − |31% − |[http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/hawaii.html SurveyUSA] − |03/06/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Idaho − |37% − |53% − |[http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/idaho.html DailyKos.com] − |07/30/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Illinois − |60% − |38% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/illinois/election_2008_illinois_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |11/01/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Indiana − |46% − |49% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/indiana/election_2008_indiana_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/29/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Iowa − |52% − |44% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/23/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Kansas − |41% − |54% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/kansas/election_2008_kansas_presidential_election Rasmuseen] − |10/13/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Kentucky − |43% − |55% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/29/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Louisiana − |41% − |57% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/22/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Maine − |51% − |46% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/02/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Maryland − |60% − |37% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maryland/election_2008_maryland_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |09/20/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Massachusetts − |62% − |34% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/massachusetts/election_2008_massachusetts_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/13/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Michigan − |53% − |43% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/28/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Minnesota − |55% − |43% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/28/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Mississippi − |45% − |53% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/election_2008_mississippi_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/27/08 − |- − |Missouri − |49% − |49% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |11/02/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Montana − |46% − |50% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/29/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Nebraska − |37% − |56% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |09/30/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Nevada − |50% − |46% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/27/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |New Hampshire − |50% − |46% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/25/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |New Jersey − |57% − |42% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_jersey/election_2008_new_jersey_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |11/02/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |New Mexico − |54% − |44% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/28/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |New York − |57% − |37% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/14/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |North Carolina − |49% − |50% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |11/02/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |North Dakota − |41% − |55% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_dakota/election_2008_north_dakota_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |09/08/08 − |- − |Ohio − |49% − |49% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |11/02/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Oklahoma − |32% − |63% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oklahoma/election_2008_oklahoma_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |09/11/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Oregon − |54% − |42% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/election_2008_oregon_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/30/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Pennsylvania − |52% − |46% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2 Rasmussen] − |11/01/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Rhode Island − |58% − |39% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/rhode_island/election_2008_rhode_island_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |09/13/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |South Carolina − |43% − |54% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2008_south_carolina_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/20/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |South Dakota − |44% − |53% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_dakota/election_2008_south_dakota_presidential_election2 Rasmussen] − |10/30/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Tennessee − |42% − |54% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/tennessee/election_2008_tennessee_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/16/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Texas − |44% − |54% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/election_2008_texas_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/21/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Utah − |32% − |64% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/utah/election_2008_utah_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/14/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Vermont − |60% − |36% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/vermont/election_2008_vermont_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |09/13/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Virginia − |51% − |47% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |11/02/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Washington − |54% − |43% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/washington/election_2008_washington_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/22/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |West Virginia − |43% − |52% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/west_virginia/election_2008_west_virginia_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/20/08 − |- style="background:white; color:blue" − |Wisconsin − |51% − |44% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2008_wisconsin_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |10/23/08 − |- style="background:white; color:red" − |Wyoming − |39% − |58% − |[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wyoming/election_2008_wyoming_presidential_election Rasmussen] − |09/10/08 − |} − − [[Image:2008_County_Election_Map.jpg|thumb|right| County by County Breakdown]] − ==County by County Breakdown== − In NewsMax's third edition of election map results by counties, reports show no significant difference between [http://images.newsmax.com/misc/2000_electoral_map.jpg 2000], [http://images.newsmax.com/misc/2004_results_by_county.jpg 2004] and 2008. <ref>[http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/red_election_map/2008/11/11/150126.html America Is Still a 'Red' Nation: Election Map 2008] NewsMax, November 11</ref> − − − == Analysis of States by Region == − Because of the [[electoral college]] system in the United States, it is important to analyze the presidential election by each state. These states are grouped into regions. − − === New England === − [[Barack Obama]] was almost certain to win almost every state in this region, which tend to be very [[liberal]]. The only exception is in New Hampshire, where [[John McCain]] was well liked and George Bush won in 2000. WHile, this state was expected to be competitive, it also had only four electoral votes, meaning the impact on the election would not have been as great as some other battleground states. McCain lost every state in this region to Obama, even New Hampshire was lost 45% to 54%. − − === Mid-Atlantic === − [[New York]], [[Delaware]], and [[Maryland]] are solidly Democrat and were expected to vote for Obama this election. [[New Jersey]] less so, but still had Democratic leanings, and was expected to go for Obama. [[Pennsylvania]] is a very important swing state for both candidates, sice it has 21 electoral votes, fifth most in the nation, and has both liberal and conservative elements. In recent years, the state had moved toward becoming Democrat. However, it was not yet at the point that is safely in the Democratic camp, and was still focused on heavily by both candidates during this election cycle. McCain still had a very good chance because Obama was unable to connect with the working-class citizens of Pennsylvania during the Democratic primary. However, again McCain proved unsuccesful and was defeated in Pennsylvania with 44% to 55%. − − === South-Atlantic === − [[Washington, D.C.]] is overwhelmingly liberal and would vote for Obama; however, with three electoral votes its significance is limited. Although [[Virginia]] has usually been Republican territory in Presidential elections, this year it became a competitive state. Democrats worked on increasing the voter turnout in the northern part of the state, which has a high population of D.C. transplants. McCain's strength is in the southern regions and among the military. In the Carolinas, which usually votes Republican, McCain was seen as having the edge, but Obama could have been competitive in these states if he could mobilize the African-American population. [[Georgia]] is a state where a third-party candidate [[Bob Barr]] could have made a difference. While most voters favored McCain, he could lose enough votes to Barr to lose the state, especially if there was a large black turnout. [[Florida]] is a very close swing state, most famously known for its role in [[United States presidential election, 2000|Election 2000]]. An important constituency in this state was the [[Jewish]] population, who had continued to support Obama over McCain. Cuban-Americans, who were most upset with Obama's statements that he would meet with Fidel Castro, backed McCain. McCain succeeded only in Georgia and South Carolina, losing to Obama in D.C., Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Obama barely won North Carolina with not even 51% of the vote. − − === Deep South === − John McCain was expected to do well in the deep south. This includes the states of [[Texas]], [[Alabama]], [[Mississippi]], [[Louisiana]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Arkansas]], [[Tennessee]], [[Kentucky]] and [[West Virginia]]. This area is generally [[conservative]], and consistently votes Republican in Presidential elections. Although Obama believed in a fifty-state strategy, it is unlikely that such a strategy would have been helpful in getting the electoral votes in these states apart from the black population. McCain won every state in this region the closest being Texas were he won 12 electoral points ahead of Obama. − − ===Swing States (Great Lakes Region)=== − Strategists believed that the Republican presidential nominee would have to win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa but that the outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, would be irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably placed it out of reach for Republicans in 2008. This was confirmed by recent polling. However, due to the location of the Republican Convention in Minnesota, the state, with ten electoral votes, could have come back into play. − − === West === − Barack Obama was almost certainly guaranteed a win in the coastal states of California, Oregon and Washington, while John McCain was favored in Arizona, Idaho, Utah and Texas. Nevada, which voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004, but could a have turn to Obama if Bob Barr had managed to pull enough votes from McCain. Obama won the popular vote in California, Oregon and Washington as expected, but also gained the states of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. McCain held onto most of the other states that Bush won in 2004. − − ===Other Important Swing States=== − Moreover, it was very important for republicans to hold Ohio and Florida. Both states had tended to lean republican in the last two presidential elections. Although Florida was disputed in election 2000, it went to Bush undeniably in 2004. Virginia was heavily contested this year. − + − + Line 457:
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United States Presidential Election, 2008 (view source)
Revision as of 07:23, August 9, 2009
, 07:23, August 9, 2009drop useless pre-election guesses about the outcome
With Obama spending 110 million dollars on TV advertising in October alone, including 30 minute specials on each of the major networks, McCain was hard pressed to make up the necessary ground to win the election after being outspent by 3 to 1 for TV adds over that time period. He couldn't count on regular TV to help put in a good word for him either, as late night political jokes are running at a pace of 7 jokes against McCain/Palin for every 1 joke against Obama/Biden and a study of news stories on McCain and Obama since the end of the conventions found that 57% of news stories about McCain were negative while only 29% were for Obama.<ref>http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/22/study-shows-mccain-media-coverage-negative/</ref> A later study by the independent Pew Research Center found that the discrepency had grown even worse. McCain had 57% of the articles about him negative while only 14% were positive, while Obama had more positive articles than negative. The only network to achieve a balance, 40% negative for both, was [[Fox News]].<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,445846,00.html</ref>
With Obama spending 110 million dollars on TV advertising in October alone, including 30 minute specials on each of the major networks, McCain was hard pressed to make up the necessary ground to win the election after being outspent by 3 to 1 for TV adds over that time period. He couldn't count on regular TV to help put in a good word for him either, as late night political jokes are running at a pace of 7 jokes against McCain/Palin for every 1 joke against Obama/Biden and a study of news stories on McCain and Obama since the end of the conventions found that 57% of news stories about McCain were negative while only 29% were for Obama.<ref>http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/22/study-shows-mccain-media-coverage-negative/</ref> A later study by the independent Pew Research Center found that the discrepency had grown even worse. McCain had 57% of the articles about him negative while only 14% were positive, while Obama had more positive articles than negative. The only network to achieve a balance, 40% negative for both, was [[Fox News]].<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,445846,00.html</ref>
== General Strategy ==
== General Strategy ==
McCain's team wants to convince the electorate of the long-term leadership and experience that John McCain has shown in two decades of government service while emphasizing the relative untested nature of Barack Obama.
McCain's team emphasized to convince the electorate of the long-term leadership and experience that John McCain has shown in two decades of government service while emphasizing the relative untested nature of Barack Obama.
Obama's team wants to convince the electorate that Obama is the candidate of fresh ideas while downplaying his relative inexperience compared to the more seasoned McCain. When possible, McCain is lumped together with George Bush, an unpopular President.
Obama's team stressed that Obama is the candidate of fresh ideas while downplaying his relative inexperience compared to the more seasoned McCain. When possible, McCain is lumped together with George Bush, an unpopular President.
===Republican Strategy===
===Republican Strategy===
McCain will highlight his record of leadership, his service to his country and stress that as President he can be counted on to keep America safe from outside threats. McCain's strongest supporters are the elderly - the group that most wants stability.
McCain will highlight his record of leadership, his service to his country and stress that as President he can be counted on to keep America safe from outside threats. McCain's strongest supporters are the elderly - the group that most wants stability.
McCain's choice of [[Alaska]] [[Governor]] [[Sarah Palin]] as his Vice Presidential nominee was a departure from what was expected and helped to show that he would go down paths that the Republican party had not done in the past. McCain has touted Palin's record of standing up to the Alaska Republican party when she resigned from an Ethics Commission in protest over a lack of ethics of fellow commissioners, as well as when she ran against, and beat, then-incumbent Governor [[Frank Murkowski]] in the Republican primary in 2006. McCain will continue to tout her as a "maverick" to complement his own maverick image that he is trying to emphasize. Last, by choosing a female running mate, McCain hoped to pick up the votes of female voters disaffected with the perceived slight of Hillary Clinton by Obama. Prior to the start of the Democratic convention, 30% of Hillary's supporters had still not backed Obama and there was a good deal of bad blood between the two.
McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential nominee was a departure from what was expected and helped to show that he would go down paths that the Republican party had not done in the past. McCain has touted Palin's record of standing up to the Alaska Republican party when she resigned from an Ethics Commission in protest over a lack of ethics of fellow commissioners, as well as when she ran against, and beat, then-incumbent Governor [[Frank Murkowski]] in the Republican primary in 2006. McCain will continue to tout her as a "maverick" to complement his own maverick image that he is trying to emphasize. Last, by choosing a female running mate, McCain hoped to pick up the votes of female voters disaffected with the perceived slight of Hillary Clinton by Obama. Prior to the start of the Democratic convention, 30% of Hillary's supporters had still not backed Obama and there was a good deal of bad blood between the two.
With the unfolding of the campaign season and watching the Democratic strategy and how it was playing out in the press and polls, the McCain campaign decided not to cede the moniker of change to Obama, but rather to take it upon themselves by emphasizing that McCain has a track record of change - while Obama does not. The McCain campaign feels it needs to have the voters ask who can be trusted more to get the job done, and if that occurs, then they have the advantage.
With the unfolding of the campaign season and watching the Democratic strategy and how it was playing out in the press and polls, the McCain campaign decided not to cede the moniker of change to Obama, but rather to take it upon themselves by emphasizing that McCain has a track record of change - while Obama does not. The McCain campaign feels it needs to have the voters ask who can be trusted more to get the job done, and if that occurs, then they have the advantage.
===Democratic Strategy===
===Democratic Strategy===
Democrats are confident that the low popularity of [[President]] [[George W. Bush]] and particularly [[Operation Iraqi Freedom]], which John McCain supports, puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008. They have been cautious in the Iraq arena realizing that 'The Surge' worked and they were on the wrong end of that issue. Focus is being put on a timeline for troops coming home, a position that most of the American population favors.
Democrats are confident that the low popularity of President Bush and particularly [[Operation Iraqi Freedom]], which John McCain supports, puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008. They have been cautious in the Iraq arena realizing that 'The Surge' worked and they were on the wrong end of that issue. Focus is being put on a timeline for troops coming home, a position that most of the American population favors.
Democrats believe it is their race to lose, but also realize they had a good chance to win the last two Presidential elections and came up short each time. General wisdom also states that a poor economy favors Obama, so they will emphasize the dire times in this area. As in past elections, differences between those who have obtained a high income level and those who have not will be emphasized. In fact, the Democratic strategy in many ways mirrors that of their strategy in 1992 when the Democrat-controlled Congress deliberately caused economic disruption, knowing full well that the public would blame sitting president [[George H.W. Bush]], and thereby allowing [[Bill Clinton]] to win that year's presidential race.
Democrats believe it is their race to lose, but also realize they had a good chance to win the last two Presidential elections and came up short each time. General wisdom also states that a poor economy favors Obama, so they will emphasize the dire times in this area. As in past elections, differences between those who have obtained a high income level and those who have not will be emphasized. In fact, the Democratic strategy in many ways mirrors that of their strategy in 1992 when the Democrat-controlled Congress deliberately caused economic disruption, knowing full well that the public would blame sitting president [[George H.W. Bush]], and thereby allowing [[Bill Clinton]] to win that year's presidential race.