Changes

Obama's declining popularity]] has made it more difficult for him to win reelection. [[Liberal]] [[Mike Bloomberg]] might run as an independent, splitting votes with [[Obama]].

Obama's declining popularity]] has made it more difficult for him to win reelection. [[Liberal]] [[Mike Bloomberg]] might run as an independent, splitting votes with [[Obama]].

For the Republican nomination, a sophisticated set of "[[stalking horse]]" candidates and endorsers are being used, as in 2008 when [[Fred Thompson]] and [[Mike Huckabee]] prevented [[Mitt Romney]] from winning.  This time Mitt Romney has [[Rick Santorum]], [[Chris Christie]] and probably [[Tim Pawlenty]] on his side ("[[Team Mitt]]"), while [[Newt Gingrich]] will likely have on his side [[Sarah Palin]] and some pro-life groups, [[neoconservatives]], the [[Fox News Channel]] and [[WSJ]]; [[Mike Huckabee]] will likely endorse Newt also ("[[Team Newt]]").

For the Republican nomination, a sophisticated set of "[[stalking horse]]" candidates and endorsers are being used, as in 2008 when [[Fred Thompson]] and [[Mike Huckabee]] prevented [[Mitt Romney]] from winning.  This time Mitt Romney has [[Rick Santorum]], [[Chris Christie]] and probably [[Tim Pawlenty]] on his side ("[[Team Mitt]]"), while [[Newt Gingrich]] likely has on his side [[Mike Huckabee]], [[neoconservatives]], the [[Fox News Channel]], [[WSJ]] and a few pro-life groups ("[[Team Newt]]").

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== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==

== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==

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|[[Newt Gingrich]]

|[[Newt Gingrich]]

|Articulate, credited with 1994 landslide, balanced the federal budget in the Clinton era, leader in fundraising, likely to obtain endorsement of older "right to life" groups against Mitt;<ref name="April%2525202010%252520Fundraising">http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2010/04/19/sarah-palin-lags-in-2012-fundraising-primary.html</ref> has one-sided promotion by the [[Fox News Channel]] and the potential [[stalking horses]] of [[Mitch Daniels]] and [[Sarah Palin]] to help him win the nomination.

|Articulate, credited with 1994 landslide, balanced the federal budget in the Clinton era, leader in fundraising, likely to obtain endorsement of older "right to life" groups against Mitt;<ref name="April%2525202010%252520Fundraising">http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2010/04/19/sarah-palin-lags-in-2012-fundraising-primary.html</ref> has one-sided promotion by the [[Fox News Channel]] and the [[WSJ]], who will likely criticize his opponent [[Mitt Romney]].

|Struggled to win reelections in his own congressional district; voted to establish the federal Department of Education as a freshman Congressman, has previously endorsed [[liberal]] ideas like "[[cap-and-trade]]" ([[global warming]] hoax) and a [[Con Con]]; resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of [[Bill Clinton]]; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a women 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office; Sarah Palin is suggesting that she may not pull out and this would prevent Newt from defeating Mitt.

|Struggled to win reelections in his own congressional district; voted to establish the federal Department of Education as a freshman Congressman, has previously endorsed [[liberal]] ideas like "[[cap-and-trade]]" ([[global warming]] hoax) and a [[Con Con]]; resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of [[Bill Clinton]]; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a women 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office; Sarah Palin is suggesting that she may not pull out and this would prevent Newt from defeating Mitt.

|Promoted almost daily by Fox

|Promoted almost daily by Fox

|A [[movement conservative]] who "knocked the ball out of the park" with her nationally televised response to Obama's [[State of the Union]] address in January 2011, Bachmann is increasingly popular with the [[Tea Party movement]]; she is a strong fundraiser and won a stunning 52-40% landslide in 2010 in a liberal-leaning district in [[Minnesota]].  Did very well at [[CPAC]] in Feb. 2011.

|A [[movement conservative]] who "knocked the ball out of the park" with her nationally televised response to Obama's [[State of the Union]] address in January 2011, Bachmann is increasingly popular with the [[Tea Party movement]]; she is a strong fundraiser and won a stunning 52-40% landslide in 2010 in a liberal-leaning district in [[Minnesota]].  Did very well at [[CPAC]] in Feb. 2011.

|As with [[Ronald Reagan]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; she's said she's not running for president this soon<ref name="Bachmann"/> and pulled out of the "Values Voter Summit" ([[Family Research Council]] convention) straw poll in September 2010; has never won statewide office; not picking up strong [[Tea Party]] support, as [[Ron Paul]] did not support her for a House leadership position and did not join her [[Tea Party]] caucus.

|As with [[Ronald Reagan]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; she's said she's not running for president this soon<ref name="Bachmann"/> and pulled out of the "Values Voter Summit" ([[Family Research Council]] convention) straw poll in September 2010; has never won statewide office; not picking up strong [[Tea Party]] support, as [[Ron Paul]] did not support her for a House leadership position and did not join her [[Tea Party]] caucus.

|Rarely on Fox anymore, which prefers Palin and especially Newt

|Rarely on Fox anymore, which prefers Newt

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|[[Jeb Bush]]

|[[Jeb Bush]]

|[[Sarah Palin]]

|[[Sarah Palin]]

|Empathetic, attracts crowds, personally [[pro-life]], fiscal conservative, popular, track record of supporting upset victories in primaries; has a popular television series and book tour that emphasizes the grassroots rather than the "inside the Beltway" mentality.

|Empathetic, attracts crowds, personally [[pro-life]], fiscal conservative, popular, track record of supporting upset victories in primaries; has a popular television series and book tour that emphasizes the grassroots rather than the "inside the Beltway" mentality.

|It's difficult to take someone who relies so heavily on [[Facebook]] seriously; even [[liberal]] [[Hollywood]] preferred ''The King's Speech'' at the [[Oscars]].  Her taxation policies were somewhat liberal.<ref>http://community.adn.com/node/112712</ref> Appointed a former [[Planned Parenthood]] board member to the [[Alaska]] Supreme Court and inexplicably resigned early as governor; could merely be a [[stalking horse]] for [[Newt Gingrich]]; lags in fundraising despite publicity,<ref name="April%2525202010%252520Fundraising"/> came in a disappointing fifth in the [[Values Voter Summit]] in September 2010 and fared badly at [[CPAC]].  Favorability rating is only 22%, compared to a 48% unfavorable rating.<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43265.html</ref>  Several of her prominent 2010 candidates (Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell) struck out on Nov. 2nd, and recently many Republicans from [[George W. Bush]] to [[Peggy Noonan]] have been critical of her.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/Vox-News/2010/1106/Republican-establishment-takes-on-Sarah-Palin</ref>  58% of American voters in a May poll said they would '''''never''''' vote for her.<ref name="Quinnipiac"/>

|It's difficult to take someone who relies so heavily on [[Facebook]] seriously; even [[liberal]] [[Hollywood]] preferred ''The King's Speech'' at the [[Oscars]].  Her taxation policies were somewhat liberal.<ref>http://community.adn.com/node/112712</ref> Appointed a former [[Planned Parenthood]] board member to the [[Alaska]] Supreme Court and inexplicably resigned early as governor; lags in fundraising despite publicity,<ref name="April%2525202010%252520Fundraising"/> came in a disappointing fifth in the [[Values Voter Summit]] in September 2010 and fared badly at [[CPAC]].  Favorability rating is only 22%, compared to a 48% unfavorable rating.<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43265.html</ref>  Several of her prominent 2010 candidates (Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell) struck out on Nov. 2nd, and recently many Republicans from [[George W. Bush]] to [[Peggy Noonan]] have been critical of her.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/Vox-News/2010/1106/Republican-establishment-takes-on-Sarah-Palin</ref>  58% of American voters in a May poll said they would '''''never''''' vote for her.<ref name="Quinnipiac"/>

|Promoted heavily by Fox

|Promoted heavily by Fox

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