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<small>''This article is about the '''U.S. Presidential Election 2012'''. See [[Presidential Election 2012 (disambiguation)]]'' for other presidential elections.</small>

<small>''This article is about the '''U.S. Presidential Election 2012'''. See [[Presidential Election 2012 (disambiguation)]]'' for other presidential elections.</small>

'''''The next presidential debate is on October 18, 2011, in [[Las Vegas]]'''''.

'''''The next presidential debate is on November 9, 2011, at Oakland University in Rochester, MI'''''.

The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  [[Obama]], with his [[Barack Obama approval ratings|declining popularity]], is unlikely to win reelection unless he can carry [[Florida]], which he won only narrowly last time.

The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  [[Obama]], with his [[Barack Obama approval ratings|declining popularity]], is unlikely to win reelection unless he can carry [[Florida]], which he won only narrowly last time.

For the Republican nomination, the leaders are [[Mitt Romney]] (likely to win [[New Hampshire]]) and [[Rick Perry]] (likely to win the South).<ref>The order of the early primaries is not yet finally determined.  For estimated dates, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref>  Neither seems to have broad enough support to win the nomination.  [[Ron Paul]] has a solid base of about 10% and his ideas are being adopted by other candidates.  Additional candidates (perhaps [[Jeb Bush]]) are possible.

For the Republican nomination, the leaders are [[Mitt Romney]] (likely to win [[New Hampshire]]), [[Herman Cain]], and [[Rick Perry]] (likely to win the South).<ref>The order of the early primaries is not yet finally determined.  For estimated dates, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref>  None seems to have broad enough support to win the nomination.  [[Ron Paul]] has a solid base of about 10% and his ideas are being adopted by other candidates.  Additional candidates (perhaps [[Jeb Bush]]) are possible.

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== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==

== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==

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|[[Ron Paul]]

|[[Ron Paul]]

|Won the [[CPAC]] poll, terrific on economic issues, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican; appeals to many social liberals.  Runs [[pro-life]] ads while Romney says little about the issue.  Also, Obama's support in polls is lowest when Paul is his opponent.

|Terrific on economic issues, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican; Won the [[CPAC]] Poll. Appeals to many social liberals.  Runs [[pro-life]] ads while Romney says little about the issue.  Also, Obama's support in polls is lowest when Paul is his opponent.

|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT|Don't Ask, Don't Tell]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienates many Republicans.

|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT|Don't Ask, Don't Tell]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienates many Republicans.

|Surprisingly won the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]] in a landslide in Oct. 2011.  Was the clear crowd favorite in the [[Iowa]] debate on Aug. 10. Finished only 1% behind Michele Bachmann in the Ames straw poll; In an online poll, Paul easily won the [[MSNBC]]-sponsored candidates' debate at the [[Reagan Library]] on September 7.

|Surprisingly won the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]] in a landslide in Oct. 2011.  Was the clear crowd favorite in the [[Iowa]] debate on Aug. 10. Finished only 1% behind Michele Bachmann in the Ames straw poll; In an online poll, Paul easily won the [[MSNBC]]-sponsored candidates' debate at the [[Reagan Library]] on September 7.

|[[Herman Cain]]

|[[Herman Cain]]

|Polls the highest on the issue of trust, and seems less scripted than other candidates.  A former successful Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem. Cain has lots of momentum. Won a stunning landslide victory in the Florida [[straw poll]] on September 24.

|Polls the highest on the issue of trust, and seems less scripted than other candidates.  A former successful Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem. Cain has lots of momentum. Won a stunning landslide victory in the Florida [[straw poll]] on September 24.

|Has gotten much more exposure and recognition since winning the Florida straw poll.  

|His 9-9-9 plan for tax reform and economic recovery helped him gain a nationwide following, but it has also drawn fire from other conservatives for introducing a new federal tax. Cain has few staff and little organization in the early primary and caucus states.  

|Finished second in the Values Voter Summit in Oct. 2011. Now leads the Republican field, according to several national polls.

|Finished second in the Values Voter Summit in Oct. 2011. Now leads the Republican field, according to several national polls.

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|It can be argued is more conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed [[RINO]] [[Rudy Giuliani]] in 2008; tried by executive order to force all schoolgirls (except for parental opt-outs) to receive the [[HPV vaccine]]; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing [[abortion]]; and continues to champion a Texas policy that allows in-state tuition for illegal immigrants.  ''Could simply block [[Mitt Romney]] from winning the nomination, without winning it himself''.

|It can be argued is more conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed [[RINO]] [[Rudy Giuliani]] in 2008; tried by executive order to force all schoolgirls (except for parental opt-outs) to receive the [[HPV vaccine]]; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing [[abortion]]; and continues to champion a Texas policy that allows in-state tuition for illegal immigrants.  ''Could simply block [[Mitt Romney]] from winning the nomination, without winning it himself''.

|Stumbled in his first major statements on [[abortion]] and [[same-sex marriage]], and then lost support by declaring that he is opposed to building a fence to reduce illegal immigration. May be focusing on a southern strategy that is unlikely to give him the delegates needed to win. Was ahead in national polls after his declaration of candidacy, then fell behind Romney.

|Stumbled in his first major statements on [[abortion]] and [[same-sex marriage]], and then lost support by declaring that he is opposed to building a fence to reduce illegal immigration. May be focusing on a southern strategy that is unlikely to give him the delegates needed to win. Was ahead in national polls after his declaration of candidacy, then fell behind Romney.

Did well in the first debate that he participated in, but has seemed tired or unprepared during a string of later debates, raising doubts about his electablility. Did poorly in the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]].

Did well in the first debate that he participated in, but seemed tired or unprepared during a string of later debates, raising doubts about his electablility. Did poorly in the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]].

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|[[Michele Bachmann]]

|[[Michele Bachmann]]