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Line 40: − |- − |[[Herman Cain]] − |Polls the highest on the issue of trust, and seems less scripted than other candidates. A former successful Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem. Cain has lots of momentum. Won a stunning landslide victory in the Florida [[straw poll]] on September 24. − |His 9-9-9 plan for tax reform and economic recovery helped him gain a nationwide following, but it has also drawn fire from other conservatives for introducing a new federal tax. Cain has few staff and little organization in the early primary and caucus states. − |Finished second in the Values Voter Summit in Oct. 2011. Now leads the Republican field, according to several national polls. Line 46:
Line 51: − |- − |[[Newt Gingrich]] − |Articulate, credited with 1994 landslide, balanced the federal budget in the Clinton era, leader in fundraising, likely to obtain endorsement of older "right to life" groups against Mitt;<ref name="April%252525202010%25252520Fundraising">http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2010/04/19/sarah-palin-lags-in-2012-fundraising-primary.html</ref> has one-sided promotion by the [[Fox News Channel]] and the [[WSJ]], who will likely criticize his opponent [[Mitt Romney]]; Gingrich's record of passing [[conservative]] legislation as [[Speaker of the House]] is remarkably strong, including welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]]. He also had the courage to shut down the government. − |Has previously endorsed [[liberal]] ideas like "[[cap-and-trade]]" ([[global warming]] hoax) and a [[Con Con]], but when the presidential debates turned instead to illegal immigration, national defense, and Obamacare, Newt came across as knowledgeable and strong. Resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of [[Bill Clinton]]; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a woman 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office. Since 9/11, Newt has come to adopt more big-government and pro-regulatory [[neoconservative]] views, unlike the push for limited-government and [[deregulation]] he spearheaded during the 1990s. − |Lost ground when his senior staff jumped ship on June 9th, but may be making a modest comeback. Finished third in several major polls conducted in late September or October.
United States presidential election, 2012 (view source)
Revision as of 02:01, October 23, 2011
, 02:01, October 23, 2011→Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination: Herman Cain moves up to #3; Newt Gingrich moves up to #4
|In February Jeb polled unusually poorly (54-34%) against [[Barack Obama]];<ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/14/obama-would-beat-jeb-bush-big-says-poll/</ref> Jeb says he does not intend to run in 2012, when he could still be tagged with negatives via George; not liked by many Tea Partiers; would be seen by many as the "third" Bush.
|In February Jeb polled unusually poorly (54-34%) against [[Barack Obama]];<ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/14/obama-would-beat-jeb-bush-big-says-poll/</ref> Jeb says he does not intend to run in 2012, when he could still be tagged with negatives via George; not liked by many Tea Partiers; would be seen by many as the "third" Bush.
|With unemployment high (9.1%), it is more likely a Republican will win in 2012, and Jeb might not wait until 2020 when he's old.
|With unemployment high (9.1%), it is more likely a Republican will win in 2012, and Jeb might not wait until 2020 when he's old.
|-
|[[Herman Cain]]
|Polls the highest on the issue of trust, and seems less scripted than other candidates. A former successful Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem. Cain has lots of momentum. Won a stunning landslide victory in the Florida [[straw poll]] on September 24.
|His 9-9-9 plan for tax reform and economic recovery helped him gain a nationwide following, but it has also drawn fire from other conservatives for introducing a new federal tax. Cain has few staff and little organization in the early primary and caucus states.
|Finished second in the Values Voter Summit in Oct. 2011. Now leads the Republican field, according to several national polls.
|-
|[[Newt Gingrich]]
|Articulate, credited with 1994 landslide, balanced the federal budget in the Clinton era, leader in fundraising, likely to obtain endorsement of older "right to life" groups against Mitt;<ref name="April%252525202010%25252520Fundraising">http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2010/04/19/sarah-palin-lags-in-2012-fundraising-primary.html</ref> has one-sided promotion by the [[Fox News Channel]] and the [[WSJ]], who will likely criticize his opponent [[Mitt Romney]]; Gingrich's record of passing [[conservative]] legislation as [[Speaker of the House]] is remarkably strong, including welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]]. He also had the courage to shut down the government.
|Has previously endorsed [[liberal]] ideas like "[[cap-and-trade]]" ([[global warming]] hoax) and a [[Con Con]], but when the presidential debates turned instead to illegal immigration, national defense, and Obamacare, Newt came across as knowledgeable and strong. Resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of [[Bill Clinton]]; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a woman 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office. Since 9/11, Newt has come to adopt more big-government and pro-regulatory [[neoconservative]] views, unlike the push for limited-government and [[deregulation]] he spearheaded during the 1990s.
|Emerging as a compromise pick, and did surprisingly well (3rd place) in the [[straw poll]] in [[Nevada]] in mid-October.
|-
|-
|[[Ron Paul]]
|[[Ron Paul]]
|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT|Don't Ask, Don't Tell]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienates many Republicans.
|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT|Don't Ask, Don't Tell]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienates many Republicans.
|Surprisingly won the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]] in a landslide in Oct. 2011. Was the clear crowd favorite in the [[Iowa]] debate on Aug. 10. Finished only 1% behind Michele Bachmann in the Ames straw poll; In an online poll, Paul easily won the [[MSNBC]]-sponsored candidates' debate at the [[Reagan Library]] on September 7.
|Surprisingly won the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]] in a landslide in Oct. 2011. Was the clear crowd favorite in the [[Iowa]] debate on Aug. 10. Finished only 1% behind Michele Bachmann in the Ames straw poll; In an online poll, Paul easily won the [[MSNBC]]-sponsored candidates' debate at the [[Reagan Library]] on September 7.
|-
|-
|[[Rick Perry]]
|[[Rick Perry]]
|As with [[Ronald Reagan]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; has never won statewide office.
|As with [[Ronald Reagan]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; has never won statewide office.
|Did extremely well in the first debate and jumped to #1 in Zogby poll of primary voters. Won the [[Ames Straw Poll]] but was upstaged by Rick Perry's declaration of candidacy on the same day. Has slipped badly in the polls since Perry's entrance.
|Did extremely well in the first debate and jumped to #1 in Zogby poll of primary voters. Won the [[Ames Straw Poll]] but was upstaged by Rick Perry's declaration of candidacy on the same day. Has slipped badly in the polls since Perry's entrance.
|-
|-
|[[Chris Christie]]
|[[Chris Christie]]