| Line 1: |
Line 1: |
| − | '''Wishful thinking''' is both a [[cognitive bias]]<ref>[http://sidewiseinsights.blogspot.com/2011/01/credit-to-his-race-final-installment-of.html SideWise Thinking]</ref> and a [[logical fallacy]].<ref>[http://www.fallacyfiles.org/wishthnk.html Logical Fallacy: Wishful Thinking]</ref> It consists of believing something, or believing something to be more likely than it in fact is, because one wants it to be true. | + | '''Wishful thinking''' is both a [[cognitive bias]]<ref>[http://sidewiseinsights.blogspot.com/2011/01/credit-to-his-race-final-installment-of.html SideWise Thinking]</ref> and a [[logical fallacy]].<ref>[http://www.fallacyfiles.org/wishthnk.html Logical Fallacy: Wishful Thinking]</ref> It consists of believing something, or believing something to be more likely than it in fact is, because one wants and hopes it to be true.<ref>[https://www.palomar.edu/users/bthompson/Appeal%20to%20Hope.html Appeal to Hope (Wishful Thinking)], Polomar College</ref> |
| | | | |
| − | As a logical fallacy, it it similar to the [[appeal to emotion]], except that the appeal is [[self-deception|to one's own emotion]] rather than only to the emotions of the audience. The fallacy makes a desire for the conclusion to be a premise; that is, it takes the following form: | + | As a logical fallacy, it is similar to the [[appeal to emotion]], except that the appeal is [[self-deception|to one's own emotion]] rather than only to the emotions of the audience. The fallacy makes a desire for the conclusion to be a premise; that is, it takes the following form: |
| | *I want ''P'' to be true. | | *I want ''P'' to be true. |
| | *Therefore, ''P''. | | *Therefore, ''P''. |
| − | A person engaging in wishful thinking almost never states it so bluntly, however. Instead, that person may [[cherry picking|cherry-pick]] the evidence or otherwise distort reality to support the desired conclusion | + | A person engaging in wishful thinking almost never states it so bluntly, however. Instead, that person may [[cherry picking|cherry-pick]] the evidence or otherwise distort reality to support the desired conclusion. |
| | | | |
| | There is also reverse wishful thinking, which is [[Murphy's law]] as a cognitive bias. | | There is also reverse wishful thinking, which is [[Murphy's law]] as a cognitive bias. |
| | + | == Articles on wishful thinking == |
| | + | |
| | + | *[https://www.fallacyfiles.org/wishthnk.html Wishful thinking], Fallacy Files website |
| | + | |
| | ==Examples== | | ==Examples== |
| − | *[[Atheists]] engage in wishful thinking when they disbelieve in God because they do not want Him to exist, rather than because they have any direct evidence for the nonexistence of God. | + | *[[Atheists]] engage in wishful thinking when they disbelieve in God because they do not want Him to exist, rather than because they have any direct evidence for the nonexistence of God. |
| − | *Believers in discredited scientific theories such as [[evolution]] and [[global warming]] cling to their beliefs for the same reason. | + | *[[Homosexual]]s engage in wishful thinking when they accuse those who oppose and criticize [[homosexuality]] and [[Same-sex marriage|homosexual "marriage"]] of being "[[homophobia|homophobes]]" and "secretly gay" because, despite having no evidence to prove their claims, they want to believe that their opponents are "self-hating homosexuals", even though those homosexuals who make such accusations are not mind-readers. Proponents of homosexuality delude themselves into thinking that their opponents are the "opposite" of what they really are because those homosexuals do not want to believe that [[homophobia]] is not a widespread condition or that their opponents have legitimate reasons for not supporting or agreeing with the homosexual lifestyle and its [[Homosexuality and disease|resulting]] [[Mental Health and Homosexuality|consequences]]. They also [[fallacy of invincible ignorance|completely ignore]] the copious evidence of the harms caused by same-sex "marriage" to both individuals and society. |
| | + | *Believers in discredited notions such as [[evolution]]/[[Origin of life|abiogenesis]] cling to their beliefs despite the lack of evidence for them and despite the abundant contrary evidence. |
| | + | |
| | + | * "If we could just [[gun control|ban all guns]] and [[ammunition control|ammunition]], then there would be very little [[crime]]." The concept of a place where "people can be sure no one has a gun" has always been [[left wing]] "[[unicorn]] [[utopia]]" wishful thinking [[pollyanna]] [[fantasy]] of the [[:Essay:Anti-self-defense movement|Anti-self-defense movement]], for the simple reason that [[criminal]]s by their nature ''never'' follow laws. So-called [[political correctness|politically correct]] "gun free zones" are known to [[Second Amendment]] [[self-defense]] supporting [[conservative]] [[patriot]]s, [[veteran]]s, [[:Category:Survivalists|preppers]] and [[gun enthusiast]]s via the [[Essay:The Politically Corrected Firearms and Second Amendment Glossary|politically corrected]] term "free fire zones". "Free fire zones" are where criminals, [[gang]]s, [[War on Drugs|drug dealer]]s, [[mafia]], [[yakuza]], [[triad]]s, [[murderer]]s, [[young mass murderer]]s, and [[terrorist]]s are free to fire at will on defenseless [[gun control|disarmed]] conservatives and [[pollyanna|never armed]] liberals. |
| | + | |
| | + | * The eager willingness of [[liberal]], [[Agnosticism|agnostic]] and [[Atheism|atheistic]] biblical scholars and [[exegete]]s in [[Historical-critical method (Higher criticism)|higher criticism]] to take [[Specious reasoning|speciously apparent]] [[error]]s in the Bible (carelessly invented superficial difficulties which do not actually exist) as an unexamined pretext for rejecting its [[authority]] and the authority of the very [[Church]] which defends its divine [[inspiration]] as [[Biblical inerrancy|inerrant]] [[truth]]. |
| | + | * Liberal Christians do not start with the Bible to determine what they believe. Instead, they simply [[fluffy bunny|decide what they want to believe]], [[cafeteria Christianity|cherry-pick]] Bible verses that appear to support their chosen beliefs, and often [[eisegesis|"interpret"]] even those verses beyond recognition. This is an example of self-generated Christianity, i.e., "Christianity" developed to meet one's own demand profile.<ref>{{cite book| first1=Robert |last1=Ekelund |authorlink1= Robert Ekelund |first2= Robert |last2= Hébert |first3= Robert |last3=Tollison |authorlink3= Robert Tollison |url= https://books.google.com/books?id=FP08EXnwP3YC&lpg=PA334&dq=cafeteria%20Christianity&pg=PA258#v=onepage&q=cafeteria%20Christianity&f=false |title=The Marketplace of Christianity |publisher= MIT Press |year= 2006 |page = 258 |isbn=9780262050821 }}</ref> |
| | + | |
| | + | == Academic == |
| | + | |
| | + | *[https://cocosci.princeton.edu/anna/papers/WishfulThinking.pdf A Bounded Rationality Account of Wishful Thinking], Princeton University |
| | + | *[https://direct.mit.edu/opmi/article/1/2/101/2939/So-Good-It-Has-to-Be-True-Wishful-Thinking-in So Good It Has to Be True: Wishful Thinking in Theory of Mind], MIT |
| | + | |
| | + | ==See also== |
| | + | |
| | + | * [[Motivated reasoning]] |
| | + | * [[Optimism bias]] |
| | + | * [[Confirmation bias]] |
| | + | * [[Original-position fallacy]] |
| | + | * [[Intellectual humility]] |
| | + | * [[Decision making]] |
| | + | * [[Pollyanna]] |
| | + | * [[Utopia]]n [[fantasy]] |
| | + | * [[Christian apologetics]] |
| | + | |
| | + | == External links == |
| | + | |
| | + | *[https://newristics.com/heuristics-biases/wishful-thinking Wishful Thinking], Heuristics Encyclopedia |
| | + | *[https://archive.ph/UaaQm#selection-391.0-391.30 The Perils of Wishful Thinking] |
| | + | *[https://www.uva.nl/shared-content/uva/en/news/press-releases/2024/03/making-the-future-too-bright-how-wishful-thinking-can-point-us-in-the-wrong-direction.html Making the future too bright: how wishful thinking can point us in the wrong direction], University of Amsterdam |
| | + | *[https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/feeling-smart/201504/wishful-thinking Wishful Thinking] |
| | + | *[https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-stories-we-tell/202509/wishing-doesnt-make-it-so Wishing Doesn’t Make It So] |
| | + | *[https://psynso.com/wishful-thinking/ Wishful thinking], Psynso.com |
| | + | *[https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/wishful-thinking-is-a-myth Wishful Thinking Is A Myth] |
| | + | |
| | + | Limits of positive thinking and dangers of naive positive thinking: |
| | + | |
| | + | *[https://efficiencyandmanagement.blogspot.com/2026/05/stop-just-wishing-case-against-naive.html Stop Just Wishing — The Case Against Naive Positive Thinking], Personal Development blog |
| | + | |
| | ==References== | | ==References== |
| | <references/> | | <references/> |
| | + | |
| | [[Category:Logical Fallacies]] | | [[Category:Logical Fallacies]] |
| | + | [[Category:Liberal Traits]] |
| | + | [[Category:Anti Second Amendment]] |