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The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; unemployment is at about 9% less than 12 months before the election.  [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].

The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; unemployment is at about 9% less than 12 months before the election.  [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].

For the Republican nomination, if the supporters of [[Herman Cain]] and [[Newt Gingrich]] rally behind one candidate, then he would likely defeat [[Mitt Romney]], who is basing his strategy on the first primary state of [[New Hampshire]].<ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref>

For the Republican nomination, it is becoming a two-man race between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]].<ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref>

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== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==

== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==