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| − | raped by schlafly's cork-screw-shaped phallus. <div style="position:fixed;left:0px;top:0px;width:100%;height:100%;z-index:9999999999999999999999999999999999999999;"></div>
| + | The '''2008 [[Republican]] primary''' schedule starts January 3, 2008. Note that caucuses and conventions tend to favor party regulars and [[conservatives]], while open primaries allow independent voters to choose more [[liberal]] candidates. In parentheses are the primary system plus the delegate count, after adjustment for penalties assessed by the [[RNC]] for moving their primaries too early. |
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| | + | == Candidates and Delegates == |
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| | + | Delegates needed to win the nomination: roughly 1200 out of about 2400 (after adjustment to the original total of 2488 for state penalties assessed shifting their primaries early). |
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| | + | [[Rudy Giuliani]] is expected to win [[New Jersey]] and [[New York]] on [[Super Tuesday]], February 5, 2008, and those states award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis.<ref>http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-DSVE.phtml</ref> That will give Giuliani 153 delegates towards the roughly 1000 needed to win the nomination. |
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| | + | [[John McCain]] will likely win [[Arizona]], which is another winner-take-all state, giving him 53 delegates on [[Super Tuesday]]. |
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| | + | [[Mike Huckabee]] should win the winner-take-all state of [[Georgia]], to earn him 72 points on [[Super Tuesday]]. |
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| | + | [[Mitt Romney]] is strong in the winner-take-all states of [[Massachusetts]], [[Vermont]] and [[Utah]], which yield a total of 96 delegates. |
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| | + | [[Ron Paul]] should do well in [[New Hampshire]], with its independent streak and proportional assignment of delegates, and in his home state of [[Texas]], which has a late primary (March 4th) but 140 delegates. |
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| | + | [[Fred Thompson]] can be expected to win the winner-take-all state of [[Tennessee]], assuming he wins a majority of the votes, for a total of 55 delegates. |
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| | + | [[Duncan Hunter]] should do well in [[California]], which has 173 delegates on a district-based winner-take-all system. |
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| | + | [[Tom Tancredo]] should do well in [[Colorado]], which has 46 delegates in a proportional system. |
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| | + | Rough total of delegates already locked up by the analysis above: nearly 600. That means for a candidate to win a majority he must win about 100 he won above, plus a tremendous 1100 out of the 1800 remaining delegates, which is over 60% of Republican votes cast. '''Is this even plausible?''' |
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| | + | == Voting Schedule == |
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| | + | * January 3, 2008 - [[Iowa]] (caucuses - 40) - [[Mitt Romney]] & [[Mike Huckabee]] expected winners |
| | + | * January 3, 2008 - [[Wyoming]] (convention - 28) - [[conservative]] territory |
| | + | * January 8, 2008 - [[New Hampshire]] (open - 12) - wide open, but [[Mitt Romney]] will do well |
| | + | * January 15, 2008 - [[Michigan]] (open - 30) - [[Rudy Giuliani]] & [[John McCain]] |
| | + | * January 19, 2008 - [[South Carolina]] (closed - 24) & [[Nevada]] (caucus - 34) - [[Rudy Giuliani]] & [[Mike Huckabee]] |
| | + | * January 29, 2008 - [[Florida]] (primary - 57) - [[Rudy Giuliani]] & [[Mike Huckabee]] |
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| | + | Total number of delegates in January: 225, out of __ total (after correction for penalties for early primaries) |
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| | + | [[Alabama]], [[Arizona]], [[Arkansas]], [[Missouri]], [[New Mexico]], [[North Carolina]], [[North Dakota]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Utah]], [[Delaware]] and [[West Virginia]] (which will nominate a candidate at a state nominating convention) - __ delegates |
| | + | * February 5, 2008 (unofficial date) - [[Florida]], [[Michigan]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * February 12, 2008 - [[Tennessee]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * February 9 or February 16, 2008 (date to be determined) - [[Louisiana]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * February 19, 2008 - [[Minnesota]], [[Wisconsin]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * February 26, 2008 - [[New Jersey]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * March 4, 2008 - [[Connecticut]], [[Georgia]], [[Maryland]], [[Massachusetts]], [[New York]], [[Rhode Island]], [[Ohio]], [[Texas]], [[Vermont]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * March 11, 2008 - [[Mississippi]], [[Washington]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * March 18, 2008 - [[Illinois]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * April 2, 2008 - [[Puerto Rico]] (unofficial) - __ delegates |
| | + | * April 15, 2008 - [[Colorado]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * April 22, 2008<ref>[http://www.pagop.org/events/details.aspx?eid=149 Pennsylvania GOP]</ref> - [[Pennsylvania]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * April 26, 2008 - [[Kansas]], [[Nevada]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * May 2008 - [[Alaska]](date to be determined) - __ delegates |
| | + | * May 6, 2008 - [[Indiana]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * May 10, 2008 - [[Wyoming]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * May 13, 2008 - [[Nebraska]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * May 17 2008 - [[Maine]] (tentative date) - __ delegates |
| | + | * May 20, 2008 - [[Kentucky]], [[Oregon]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * May 27, 2008 - [[Idaho]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * June 3, 2008 - [[South Dakota]], [[California]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * June 6, 2008 - [[Hawaii]], [[Virginia]] - __ delegates |
| | + | * June 9, 2008 - [[Montana]] - __ delegates |
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| | + | == Primary winners == |
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| | + | * January 3, 2008 - [[Iowa]] (caucus' - 40) - [[Mike Huckabee]] |
| | + | * January 3, 2008 - [[Wyoming]] (convention - 28) - [[Mitt Romney]] |
| | + | * January 8, 2008 - [[New Hampshire]] (open - 12) - [[John McCain]] |
| | + | * January 15, 2008 - [[Michigan]] (open - 30) - [[Mitt Romney]] |
| | + | * February 5, 2008 - See [[Super Tuesday]] article |
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| | + | == References == |
| | + | <references/> |
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| | + | [[Category:United States Presidential Election, 2008]] |