User:Conservative/historical sciences

Experts and the difficulty of forecasting and extrapolating to the past

• The Peculiar Blindness of Experts, The Atlantic, 2019

• Why Experts are Almost Always Wrong, Smithsonian

• When Forecasters Get It Wrong: Always, New York Times, 2017

• Be Wary of the Experts: Predictions Are Usually Wrong, The Blaze, 2016

• Why Experts Always Seem To Get It Wrong Forbes, 2014

• Why Experts Get It Wrong, The Atlantic

• Why experts are usually wrong, NY Post, 2010Conservative (talk) 09:53, 3 July 2019 (EDT)

In addition, please see: Limitations of scienceConservative (talk) 09:54, 3 July 2019 (EDT)

Extrapolations involving the future or past can have a number of assumptions and it is sometimes difficult to predict matters in a multiple variable situation.Conservative (talk) 09:56, 3 July 2019 (EDT)

If you do reasonable Bible exegesis and when you compare the evidence of the Bible versus the track records of extrapolations of scientists into the future/past, the evidence for the Bible/Christianity come out on top hands down. See: Christian apologetics websites. Conservative (talk) 10:03, 3 July 2019 (EDT)

A few things:

1. You cannot observe the past. Strictly speaking, you have not used science and observation. You have not used operational science (Observational science about the present), you have instead used historical science which is rife with extrapolations and assumptions. The track record of science when it comes to forecasting and knowing the distant past is not nearly as reliable as operational science about the present.

Your point, and the points of the articles cited below, are well-taken. But drawing conclusions about the past, difficult though that may be, is nowhere near as difficult as predicting the future. It's what detectives do when the analyze a crime scene and figure out who the perpetrator was. Imperfect, but our criminal justice system uses this all the time. On the other hand, if predicting the future were anywhere near that straightforward, the police would simply arrest suspects in advance of committing the crime, saving everyone a lot of grief, wouldn't they? SamHB (talk) 11:44, 6 July 2019 (EDT)

2. The Atlantic 2019 The Peculiar Blindness of Experts, Smithsonian and other articles I gave below about forecasting the future talk about "hedgehogs" who have a tendency to: myopically focus on one discipline, intransigently double down and be credentialed people who have an overinflated egos. And these hedgehogs are largely rewarded for their behavior because they are rarely held accountable when they are wrong - even when they are spectacularly wrong. On the other hand, people who are intellectually curious, have breadth of knowledge and are team players when it comes to a multidisciplinary approach, perform far better at forecasting the future (which is outside the realm of operational science). So your refusal to look at YEC material is symptomatic of the cognitive inflexibility and hubris that hedgehogs possess (It is also illogical and uses the genetic fallacy).

3. YECs certainly use a multidisciplinary approach when it comes to the physical sciences (hence the article Age of the earth: 101 evidences for a young age of the earth and the universe, but we also look at things which have a better track record and reliability when it comes to the realm of the distant past and knowing the future. And not only do YEC, Bible believers have a better track record about the distant past than irreligious/nonreligious academics/scholars when it comes to biblical history (city of Ninevah existing, writing existing at the time of Moses, etc., etc.), but we also have a better track record when it comes to predicting the future (Israel becoming a nation again, an explosion of knowledge occurring in the world as per Daniel the prophet, etc, etc. See: Bible prophecy articles and websites). In addition, Bible scientific foreknowledge certainly indicates that one can reasonably infer that the Bible is divinely inspired as is more reliable than myopic, egotistical hedgehog experts who have a very poor track record when they are operating outside of the realm of operational science (Again, the physical sciences have limitations when it comes to forecasting and knowing the distant past due to unverifiable assumptions in their extrapolations).

4. You have taken exception to my many "Atheism and ...." articles. SamHB, you should be delighted that I take a multidisciplinary approach when it comes to the existence/nonexistence of God issue and look upon the issue from many angles.Conservative (talk) 14:14, 4 July 2019 (EDT)