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| − | ''See [[early voting]] for an analysis of voting in '''swing states'''.''
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| − | '''Swing states''', also called "battleground states," are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support prior to a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the presidential election outcome in either direction. These states are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties.
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| − | States that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic or Republican candidate are usually referred to as [[blue state]]s and [[red state]]s, respectively, while swing states are called "[[purple state]]s" in order to highlight their mixed demographic nature. Hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by [[Super PAC]]s are spent almost entirely in swing states, where the presidential election outcome is expected to be decided.
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| − | A notable example of a swing state is [[Florida]], where the southern portion of the state is solidly Democratic (excluding areas with large Cuban populations which historically vote Republican), the central portion leans Democratic, while the northern (especially among the many military bases) and southwestern portions are solidly Republican. The swing state phenomenon was most notable in the 2000 Presidential Election, where the [[mainstream media]] called the state for Al Gore (before polls had closed in the Florida panhandle; as that area is solidly Republican some believe this was done intentionally to suppress the vote), only to have to walk their initial predictions back, then the country had to wait weeks before the winner was declared (George W. Bush, by a mere 537 votes). Because of that, and the normally warm weather during the campaign season (where the weather is cold in many other swing states) Florida is a popular place for Presidential campaigning.
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| − | ==Background==
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| − | Swing states take on increased significance because most states award their electoral college votes on a winner-take-all basis. Therefore, if one candidate gains a slim majority of the votes from a swing state, all of the electoral college votes are awarded to that candidate, despite the votes of the other 49% of the state's voters. [[Maine]] and [[Nebraska]] are the only two current exceptions; both states split their electoral vote between those representing congressional districts (the winner of the district receives the vote) and those representing Senators (the winner of the statewide vote receives these two votes). The two states can have "swing congressional districts"; however, only two times (2008, in Nebraska and 2016, in Maine) did a district go to a candidate other than the statewide winner.
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| − | ==2020==
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| − | {{see also|2020 Presidential election#Predictions and polls}}
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| − | In 2020, the six closest swing states are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. The additional states of Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire are considered potential swing states, and [[Trump]] has campaigned there in September 2020 also.
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| − | ===Arizona===
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| − | Trump received 49% of the vote in [[Arizona]] in 2016, a plurality slightly higher than [[Hillary Clinton|Clinton]]'s total of 45%.<ref>[https://www.270towin.com/states/Arizona 270towin Arizona], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Polling as of late August 2020 shows a close race with [[Joe Biden]] slightly ahead.<ref name="RCP Arizona">[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_biden-6807.html RealClearPolitics Arizona], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> A Trafalgar poll conducted in October showed Trump two points ahead of Biden.<ref name="RCP Arizona" /><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/az-pres-103020/ Trafalgar Arizona Poll], retrieved November 3, 2020</ref> As of November 8, 2020, results 97% reporting showed Biden with a 20,000 vote lead,<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html NY Times 2020 Election Results Arizona], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> though this was significantly smaller than Biden's lead on election night.
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| − | ===Florida===
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| − | In the 2018 mid-terms, Florida voters replaced a Democratic Senator (Bill Nelson) with a Republican one (the term-limited Governor, [[Rick Scott]]), and maintained the Governor's office for the Republicans ([[Ron DeSantis]]).
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| − | [[Florida]] was crucial to Trump's victory in 2016, when he won by just 1% of the vote.<ref>[https://www.270towin.com/states/Florida 270towin Florida], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Polling as of early November 2020 showed Joe Biden leading in the state by approximately one point, within the margin of error, as Fox 35, Trafalgar, and Susquehanna showed small leads for Trump compared to Rasmussen showing a small lead for Biden.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html RealClearPolitics Florida], retrieved November 3, 2020</ref> Ultimately Trump won the state of Florida by more than three points; his increase from 2016 was largely due to an increase in support among Cuban-Americans, enabling him to receive 46% of the vote in [[Miami]]-Dade County and helping bring his overall vote total to 51%.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-florida.html New York Times election results 2020 Florida], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/03/florida-election-results-president-analysis-trump-biden-impact/6085513002/ "Trump wins Florida: Gets boost by strong turnout by Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County"], Palm Beach Post, retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
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| − | ===Michigan===
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| − | Trump won [[Michigan]] by an extremely narrow margin in 2016, and polling had showed Biden in the lead, but by a margin that reduced during the course of summer, until August 28, 2020, when a poll released by Trafalgar Group gave Trump a one and a half point lead.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html RealClearPolitics Michigan], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-0820/ Trafalgar Poll August Michigan], retrieved August 29, 2020</ref> Trafalgar's early November poll showed Trump slightly ahead of Biden.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-1120/ Trafalgar Poll November Michigan], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
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| − | No excuse is required for an absentee ballot in the state.<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020/ FiveThirtyEight Project: How to Vote 2020], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref>
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| − | Results proved to be highly controversial as Biden received 51% of the vote according to official results.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-michigan.html New York Times Michigan Election Results 2020], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> Investigations conducted by [[The Federalist]], among others, indicated that voter fraud had taken place in the Democratic Party stronghold of Wayne County.<ref>[https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/05/reports-of-election-fraud-keep-piling-up-in-michigan-whats-going-on/ Reports Of Election Fraud Keep Piling Up In Michigan. What’s Going On?], The Federalist, November 8, 2020</ref> American [[Mainstream Media]] outlets called the race for Biden despite these claims as Twitter censored President Trump's voicing of concerns.<ref>[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325067488695099397 "People were screaming STOP THE COUNT & WE DEMAND TRANSPARENCY"], Donald Trump Twitter, retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
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| − | ===[[North Carolina]]===
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| − | Polling is close but implies that Trump may have established a small lead.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html RealClearPolitics North Carolina], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> The Democrats in total received more votes in their Presidential primary than what the Republicans received, though the Democrat primary was more competitive, as Joe Biden received only 43% of the Democrats' vote (569,000) while Trump received 94% (747,000) with little serious competition.<ref>[https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/north-carolina/ Politico Election Results North Carolina], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref>
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| − | Trafalgar's late October poll showed Trump two points ahead of Biden.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nc-pres-1031/ Trafalgar Poll October North Carolina], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
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| − | Trump won the state of North Carolina by roughly one point.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-north-carolina.html New York Times North Carolina Presidential election results], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
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| − | ===Pennsylvania===
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| − | [[Change Research]] has shown a close race in [[Pennsylvania]] since mid-July.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html RealClearPolitics Pennsylvania], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Center for Politics wrote an article about the political situation of the state, emphasizing the state's shift to Trump in 2016. The article referred to Trump's "new coalition," comprising largely of small towns and cities outside of [[Philadelphia]]'s metropolitan area, which had leaned Democrat in the past but where Republicans have been making significant gains. The article claimed that Biden may be more appealing to those Democrat/former Democrat voters than Hillary Clinton.<ref>[http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-pennsylvania/ Cook, Rhodes. "States of Play: Pennsylvania"] ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', retrieved August 28, 2020</ref>
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| − | A [[Rasmussen Reports]] poll conducted August 25-27 of 2020 showed Trump and Biden at 46 points each in the state.<ref>[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46 "Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 46%"] ''Rasmussen Reports'', retrieved September 7, 2020</ref> A poll conducted in early November by Trafalgar showed Trump and Biden with a point of each other in the state.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-1102/ Trafalgar Poll November], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
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| − | ===Wisconsin===
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| − | In a statewide judicial election in early 2020, Republican Daniel Kelly lost by 11 points to Democrat Jill Karofsky.<ref name="States of Play Wisconsin" />
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| − | [[Center for Politics]] has called Wisconsin "2020’s most vital state" and highlighted the importance of the cancellation of the live [[Democratic National Convention]], which was scheduled to take place in the state.<ref name="States of Play Wisconsin">[http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-wisconsin/ Coleman, J. Miles. "States of Play: Wisconsin"] Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Trafalgar Group showed Trump leading Biden by one point in [[Wisconsin]] in a poll conducted from August 14-23.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html RealClearPolitics Wisconsin], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/wi-pres-0820/ Trafalgar Poll], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 1st and 2nd showed Joe Biden ahead of Trump by eight points, 51-43, in the state.<ref>[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/wisconsin_biden_51_trump_43 Rasmussen Reports September 1-2 Wisconsin] retrieved September 7, 2020</ref> At the time this gave Biden a lead approximately four points higher than that of the RealClearPolitics average.<ref>[https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1302971498492317696 Rasmussen Reports Twitter], retrieved September 7, 2020</ref>
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| − | ===Other states===
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| − | Other states considered important battlegrounds in 2020 include [[Texas]] (leans R), [[Ohio]] (leans R), [[Minnesota]] (leans D), [[Nevada]] (leans D), [[Georgia]] (leans R), [[New Hampshire]] (leans D), and [[Iowa]] (leans R).
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| − | ==2016==
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| − | [[File:ElectoralCollege2016.svg.png|350px|thumbnail|Final results of the 2016 election, including "faithless electors"]]
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| − | Here are the key swing states for the [[Presidential Election 2016]], color-coded to show which party carried them (red denotes [[Republican]], while blue denotes [[Democratic]]):
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| − | *[[Colorado|<font color=blue>Colorado</font>]]
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| − | *[[Florida|<font color=red>Florida</font>]]
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| − | *[[Iowa|<font color=red>Iowa</font>]]
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| − | *[[Michigan|<font color=red>Michigan</font>]]
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| − | *[[Nevada|<font color=blue>Nevada</font>]]
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| − | *[[New Hampshire|<font color=blue>New Hampshire</font>]]
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| − | *[[North Carolina|<font color=red>North Carolina</font>]]
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| − | *[[Ohio|<font color=red>Ohio</font>]]
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| − | *[[Pennsylvania|<font color=red>Pennsylvania</font>]]
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| − | *[[Virginia|<font color=blue>Virginia</font>]]
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| − | *[[Wisconsin|<font color=red>Wisconsin</font>]]
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| − | == 2012 ==
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| − | {{see also|Endorsements 2012}}
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| − | Here are the key swing states for the [[Presidential Election 2012]], for a total of 100 electoral votes, all of which were won by Obama in 2008:<ref>https://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/05/26/national/a080145D80.DTL#ixzz1w1roz7XG</ref>
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| − | *[[Colorado|<font color=blue>Colorado</font>]]
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| − | *[[Florida|<font color=blue>Florida</font>]]
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| − | *[[Iowa|<font color=blue>Iowa</font>]]
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| − | *[[Nevada|<font color=blue>Nevada</font>]]
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| − | *[[New Hampshire|<font color=blue>New Hampshire</font>]]
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| − | *[[North Carolina|<font color=red>North Carolina</font>]]
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| − | *[[Ohio|<font color=blue>Ohio</font>]]
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| − | *[[Virginia|<font color=blue>Virginia</font>]]
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| − | *[[Wisconsin|<font color=blue>Wisconsin</font>]]
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| − | A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win, and Obama won with 95 additional electoral votes in 2008. Assuming that Republicans win Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, '''''this entire election could be decided in only Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio'''''.
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| − | {| class="wikitable"
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| − | |-
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| − | !State
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| − | !Expected winner 2012
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| − | !Margin of [[Obama]]'s win in 2008
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| − | !Indicators
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| − | !Electoral Votes in 2012
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| − | |-
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| − | |Ohio
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| − | |Leaning to Obama.
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| − | |4.6%
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| − | |Ohio voted Republican in the 2010 elections, but the public unions repealed the collective bargaining reforms by popular vote. This indicates heavy union influence, a plus for Obama as unions vote heavily Democratic. As of September 13, 2012, Romney (46%) and Obama (47%) were virtually tied.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president Election 2012: Ohio President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |18
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| − | |-
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| − | |Iowa
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| − | |Leaning to Obama.
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| − | |9.5%
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| − | |Mitt Romney leads Obama 47% to 44% as of September 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/election_2012_iowa_president Election 2012: Iowa President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |6
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| − | |-
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| − | |Colorado
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| − | |Toss-up
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| − | |9%
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| − | |[[Pro-life]], pro-[[Christian]] [[Tim Tebow]]'s phenomenal success for the Denver Broncos helped improve the culture there. As of September 2012, Romney leads Obama, 47% to 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/colorado/election_2012_colorado_president Election 2012: Colorado President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |9
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| − | |-
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| − | |Virginia
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| − | |Leaning to Romney.
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| − | |6%
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| − | |Elected a Republican governor, [[Bob McDonnell]], in 2009. In the 2011 elections the Republican party took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature. A Rasmussen Reports survey of Virginia taken September 14 gave Obama a 1-point lead, 49% to 48%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president Election 2012: Virginia President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |13
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| − | |-
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| − | |Florida
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| − | |Likely Romney
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| − | |2.8%
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| − | |Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor [[Rick Scott]] is currently (August 2012) very unpopular in the state. Obama's approval in the state is below 50%. Florida is a must win for Romney;<ref>http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/sept-11-florida-a-true-must-win-for-romney/</ref> however, as of September 13, 2012, Obama held a 2-point lead, 48% to 46%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president Election 2012: Florida President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |29
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| − | |-
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| − | |New Hampshire
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| − | |Leaning to Obama.
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| − | |9.6%
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| − | |Romney has some roots here and was governor of nearby Massachusetts. He holds a 3-point lead (48% to 45%) over Obama, as of September 19, 2012<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president Election 2012: New Hampshire President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |4
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| − | |-
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| − | |North Carolina
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| − | |Likely Romney, due to Obama's support of [[same-sex marriage]].
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| − | |0.3%
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| − | |The current [[Democratic]] governor, [[Bev Perdue]], is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. Rasmussen's poll on September 14, 2012 had Romney at 51% to Obama's 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president Election 2012: North Carolina President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |15
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| − | |-
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| − | |Nevada
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| − | |Leaning to Obama.
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| − | |12.5%
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| − | |A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for [[Republican]] [[Mark Amodei]]. [[Harry Reid]] won reelection in 2010 despite [[Tea Party]] opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. As of September 20, 2012, Obama leads Romney 47% to 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/nevada/election_2012_nevada_president Election 2012: Nevada President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |6
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| − | |-
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| − | |Wisconsin
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| − | |Toss-up
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| − | |13.9%
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| − | |Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their [[labor union]] allies, they failed to recall enough republican legislators for a majority, failed to defeat Justice David Prosser in the Supreme Court election. The final blow that put Wisconsin in play for the 2012 election was when Governor Scott Walker defeated his recall election by a wider margin than he was originally elected in 2010. The selection of Wisconsin Congressman [[Paul Ryan]] as Romney's running mate may also help him in Wisconsin and vie-presidential nominees tend to boost the ticket in their home state. While Romney did receive a bump after his choice of Ryan, as of September 2012, he was slightly trailing Obama, 46% to 49%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president Election 2012: Wisconsin President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |10
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| − | |}
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| − | Additional states that Obama carried by a wide margin in 2008 might become possibilities for a Romney victory in 2012 if he improves in the polls:
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| − | {| class="wikitable"
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| − | |-
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| − | !State
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| − | !Margin of [[Obama]]'s win in 2008
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| − | !Indicators
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| − | !Electoral Votes in 2012
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| − | |-
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| − | |Michigan
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| − | |16%
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| − | |Mitt Romney, though not ideal for the average conservative, grew up in Michigan and could put it into play. His father, [[George Romney]], served as governor of the state. Obama is ahead of Romney 48% to 42%, as of Rasmussen's last poll, taken in July 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/michigan/election_2012_michigan_president Election 2012: Michigan President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |16
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| − | |-
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| − | |New Mexico
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| − | |15%
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| − | |Obama holds a substantial lead over Romney, 52% to 38%, according to Rasmussen's last poll, taken August 21, 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2012_new_mexico_president Election 2012: New Mexico President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref>
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| − | |5
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| − | |-
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| − | |Pennsylvania
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| − | |10%
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| − | |Obama's has had high disapproval ratings here: 54%, and [[Republicans]] swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against [[Hillary Clinton]].<ref>[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1653 Quinnipiac poll done late September 2011]</ref> As of September 21, 2012, Obama leads Romney by a 51% to 39% margin.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president Election 2012: Pennsylvania President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref>
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| − | |20
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| − | |}
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| − | === Effect on Policy ===
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| − | Swing state politics is having an enormous influence on policy: [[Obama]]'s abrupt change in [[deportation]] policy was probably the reason [[Mitt Romney]] reduced Obama's lead in the swing state of [[Colorado]], and narrowed the lead in [[Nevada]] and [[Virginia]], all of which have large [[Hispanic]] populations.<ref>https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/233037-obama-takes-action-on-deportations-as-romney-closes-gap-in-swing-states</ref>
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| − | ==2008 Swing States==
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| − | *[[Colorado]]
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| − | *[[Florida]]
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| − | *[[Iowa]]
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| − | *[[Michigan]]
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| − | *[[Minnesota]]
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| − | *[[Missouri]]
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| − | *[[New Hampshire]]
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| − | *[[New Mexico]]
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| − | *[[Ohio]]
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| − | *[[Pennsylvania]]
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| − | *[[Wisconsin]]
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| − | *[[Virginia]]
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| − | == External links ==
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| − | | |
| − | *[http://www.tnr.com/article/the-vital-center/95467/obama-mccain-elections-gop-democrats Analysis of Electoral College and popular vote]
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| − | *[http://news.yahoo.com/poll-romney-claims-slight-edge-15-battleground-states-164545408.html;_ylt=A2KLOzGP5vJPnRUA.Q3QtDMD July polling: Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent in 15 swing states]
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| − | == References ==
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| − | <references/>
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| − | | |
| − | [[Category:Politics]]
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| − | [[Category:United States]]
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