User:Conservative/Forecasting

General forecasting

• Superforecasting Summary and Review by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

• The Peculiar Blindness of Experts - Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.

• Professor Philip Tetlock on His Groundbreaking Research About 'Expert Judgment' - video

Political forecasting

1. Political expert forecasts

• Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip Tetlock - video

• Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006)

2. Arthur C. Brooks wrote in his article Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being: "A 2012 survey conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University asked a sample of Americans about their news-consumption habits, and quizzed them about U.S. and international political and economic events. They found that those watching the most partisan television news sources—on both the left and the right—were often less knowledgeable about world events than those who consumed no news at all."

• At Least Bias Is Bipartisan: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Partisan Bias in Liberals and Conservatives - Perspectives on Psychological Science

• Psychological Features of Extreme Political Ideologies

3. Political betting markets have better accuracy than polls and pundits.

Economic forecasts

• Economic calendar

• The Austrian indictor

• Gross output

Yield curve

• What You Need to Know About the Inverted Yield Curve

• US Treasury yield curve

• Yield curve - Google search

• Inverted yield curve - Google search