Essay: Stavridis: Getting Pummeled in War Is a 200-Year Russian Tradition

Flag of Russia

Throughout its long history, from its formation as the medieval state Kievan Rus' in the 9th century to the Russian Federation as we know it today, Russia has seen some bitter military defeats. Some of these have had devastating consequences, resulting, for example, in the loss of large swathes of territory, and even threatening the country's very existence. So, what are Russia's greatest military thrashings?"[1]

• Getting Pummeled in War Is a 200-Year Russian Tradition

• 19 Russian Wars Ending in Defeat, From Ivan the Terrible to Vladimir Putin

• 10 Epic Russian Military Disasters

• A history of Russia's spectacular defeats

• 5 worst military defeats in Russian history

• Russia used to lose wars, says history.

• List of Wars Russia Lost over the Past 150 Years (Red ones are the military defeats), in a pyrrhic victory a country can "win" a war, but still get pummeled.

Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a pyrrhic victory (See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse).

See also:

• Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future).

How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes

The flag of Ukraine.

John Joseph Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

Mearsheimer predicted the war in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War)

Although I would like the war in Ukraine to end soon, I suspect that Professor John Joseph Mearsheimer is correct and that the war will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See: INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time.

Also, any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a pyrrhic victory (See: Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state. In addition, I predict that American/NATO taxpayers will continue to pay for this boondoggle with their tax money for several more years.

On August 23, 2023, Axios reported: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."

While I would love for the Republicans to honor the wishes of its Republican base and cut aid to Ukraine and would like to be pleasantly surprised if they do, Professor Mearsheimer has correctly pointed out several times that the Republican Party doesn't listen to its base when it comes to foreign wars and the elites that are warhawks usually get their way. The military/industrial complex and its lobbyists usually prevail despite the wishes of the American public. Furthermore, for various reasons, such as Donald Trump arming the Ukrainians before the war in Ukraine (Stinger missiles, etc.), Meaersheimer is highly skeptical that if Donald Trump were to win the presidency in 2024 that he would end the war quickly (See: Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer). I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.

If Donald Trump (or some other Republican) is elected in 2024, maybe Donald Trump (or that Republican) will surprise me and strike a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as early as 2024 or 2025 (Long-shot events do sometimes happen as evidenced by anyone who has ever seen a black swan). But even if such a thing were accomplished, things it will be difficult to maintain and/or have flare up to some degree afterward.

Although I can potentially see the war in Ukraine ending in 2025 if Trump or another Republican is elected (Ukraine is not of vital national interest of the USA), it seems unlikely given the animosity between Russia/Ukraine now and other factors mentioned in the video INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine.

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer). Once again, I agree with him on this point. He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups. I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.

Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.

How long do post WWII wars last? Some relevant statistics.

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine

“

Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.

”

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.

Russian defector reveals that a 'majority' of people inside the Kremlin are unhappy with the war in Ukraine

See also: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?

• Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, June 2023

• Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine, ABC News video, July 2023

The Grand Kremlin Palace is a building in the Moscow Kremlin.

The Moscow Kremlin is a fortified complex in the center of Moscow. The Moscow Kremlin now serves as the official residence of the Russian president and as a museum.

Alcoholism in Russia and the war in Ukraine

See also: User:Conservative/Alcoholism in Russia

• Putin’s ‘stressed’ administration staff start each day with bottle of vodka: report, NY Post, 2023
• Putin's administration staff 'are starting the day with a bottle of vodka and Security Council's Dmitry Medvedev is often drunk when he writes his apocalyptic threats of nuclear war', Daily Mail, June 2023

Russia soldiers, alcoholism and the war in Ukraine

• Russian troops are battling high and drunk: It’s nothing new, The Hill, July 2023

In 2023, Business Insider reported: "Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows."

In 2023, Russia had the second highest alcoholism rate in the world as far as it being a problem with both genders. In addition, in 2023 Russia had the highest alcoholism rate for males.

In 2019, it was reported that every year 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.

In 2023, Business Insider reported: "Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows."

Jerusalem Post: Many Russian troop deaths tied to alcohol, gun accidents, hypothermia -UK, 2023

This essay is a work in progress