Russian demographics

The flag of Russia

The Russian Federation consists of 89 federal subjects. A federal subject can be a republic, oblast, krai, cities of federal status, autonomous districts, and one Jewish autonomous region. Each subject has an equal status. Each subject has a chief leader who may be a governor, mayor, or head of the region. Each region has its own legislature or parliament which can adopt local laws that do not contradict the federal law. There is almost no difference between an oblast and krai, the only difference is that krai can include oblasts, and an oblast has no further subdivisions.

A republic has its own Constitution and can establish its own State languages. As a general rule, the language of the ethnic group that dominates in that republic is the official language. Dagestan for example, has over 40 languages, and 14 are official languages.

There are 193 ethnic groups living in these federal subjects, and according to the Institute of Linguistics, there are 277 languages and dialects in Russia. The common element that unites these diverse groups is the Russian language. There are two different words to distinguish between an ethnic Russian, and a non-ethnic Russian speaker, Russkia and Rossiyane. Ethnic Russians make up about 75% of the population. A poll conducted in 2022 by Interfax found:

Most Russians (68%) consider themselves Orthodox Christians, the percentage of such Russians in the 45-59 age group reaches 76%, according to a poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM), which was obtained by Interfax on Wednesday. The poll shows that 74% of Russia’s women and 60% of Russia’s men consider themselves Orthodox Christians.

The Russian language itself has no regional dialects. A Russian from Vladivostok can easily understand a Russian from Kaliningrad. Russia has been a single state since the 14th century with a single educational system, so unlike German or Italian, there was no development of special, incomprehensible dialects to one another in Russia. However, some linguists distinguish three dialects: in Northern, Southern, and Central Russia. There are various accents that exist in remote villages apart from the large urban centers, and in regions that border other cultures, for example in the Caucus region which borders Armenia and the Republic of Georgia.

Despite the image propagated by Western media and educational institutions of Russia being a backward people and country, Russia is about two centuries ahead of Western Progressives in managing to keep a diverse group of people living together peacefully in one state and society. Even with their differences, they have historically risen together when foreign influence or invaders have threatened to tear them apart or destroy the Russian state.

Russia's demographic decline

Russian demography has long been an existential issue to Vladimir Putin. In 2021, he declared “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority".

According to a 2022 report of IntelliNews:

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The decline in the size of Russia’s population is accelerating, driven by a combination of the arrival of the demographic dip caused by the 1990s and one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Russia saw a rapid expansion in population during the Soviet era as the country was industrialised and the population moved into the cities. The population rose from circa 100mn in 1945 following WWII to 148.5mn in 1992, after which the economic chaos of that decade both depressed fertility and increased the death rates, especially amongst men. Life expectancy in particular crashed after the economy collapsed in 2009. Now things are even worse. Compared to the peaks of the boom years in the early noughties, fertility rates in Russia have fallen by almost a third and are now even lower than in the mid-1990s, when an average of 9.3 children were born per 100,000 people. While the death rate is growing at the same time, the natural population decline continues to accelerate: 264,300 people per quarter, or 7.3 people per 100,000 of the population – new all-time lows for the entire modern history of the country.

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According to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov the war in Ukraine makes Russia's demographic crisis worse.

Salavat Abylkalikov indicates:

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In 2022, Russia's population growth rate was -0.38%. Assuming this rate persists, the population will halve in 184 years (according to Rosstat figures, Russia currently has 146.4 million inhabitants — The Bell). According to the UN's latest projection, Russia's population will be 112.2 million by 2100 under average circumstances. The Covid-19 pandemic caused life expectancy in Russia to fall by 3.3 years. It quickly began to recover in 2022, rising by 2.7 years. However, the war has disrupted this progress, and life expectancy is now impacted by war-related deaths and stress-induced substance abuse. Lower incomes and worsening access to medication, diagnostics, equipment and treatment are further reducing life expectancy. The war may also cause a decrease in inward migration, which has previously helped offset Russia's natural population decline. From 1992-2019, the natural loss was 13.8 million people, but inward migration compensated with 9.6 million. Russia could now find itself in a situation where natural and migratory losses reinforce one another... Shifts in the age structure of the population pose a substantial demographic risk for Russia's economy. The generations born in the 1990s and 2000s, when Russia's birth rate was at its lowest, are now entering the labor market. This will exacerbate the existing crisis due to a lack of young workers. Meanwhile, the post-war generations of the 1950s and 60s are aging and approaching retirement.

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The main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis according to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov

The Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov says the main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis will be the following:

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According to the average version of the UN forecast, Russia's population by 2050 may be about 133.4 million people, which is 14th in the world and below countries such as Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico. But if Russia goes not according to the average, but according to the low option that is quite likely at the present time, then with a population of 123.2 million people we will drop to 16th place and will already be neighbors with Tanzania and Vietnam. Thus, the price of switching to the low scenario could be -10 million people, as well as a decrease in the place in the top countries in terms of population. Moreover, the low version of the UN forecast did not include too low or even negative migration growth. A smaller population means a country's lower economic potential, a shrinking domestic market, worsening demographic problems and an aging population, as well as a decrease in the country's geopolitical power. The population size still correlates with the weight in international relations, the ability to promote their interests on the world stage. And the declining population for the largest country in the world may cause some neighbors on the continent, especially the eastern ones, to be tempted to solve their internal growing problems by some external adventures. But will Russia find anyone and how to fight back, will there be allies?

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See also

• Healthcare in Russia