Difference between revisions of "User:Conservative/International relations/geopolitics/news"

Combines realist/liberal internationalist school perspective. Written by several hundred contributors from around the world, experts in a variety of disciplines.

World Politics Review, website
World Politics Review, YouTube

Emmanuel Todd

Emmanuel Todd - Contrarian French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris.

The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan

Peter Zeihan | The Changing Character of War, Peter Zeihan

Current state of the world in terms of polarity and international relations

Biggest mistakes of view of international politics in terms of distortions are these 3: Geography is destiny (Mackinder), world is simply great power politics (Mearsheimer) and cycles of history (Turchin). See: Three mistakes geopolitics makes about history (Mackinder, Mearsheimer, Turchin). Better way to look at things is look at specific/unique circumstances. Theories/ideology should not trump reality/specific/unique history.

World is currently a mix of nationalism/cultures/global trade and political blocks (West vs. China/Russia/Iran/North Korea. Also, nonaligned countries. USA is still the strongest country in terms of economics, etc.).

How ‘Reglobalization’ (nationalism/political blocks/world trade) Is Changing the World)

Polarity (International relations)

Polarity - International relations

Bipolar:

The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?

The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, April 18, 2023

No, the World Is Not Multipolar, Foreign Affairs, September 22, 2023

Multipolarity: What Is It Good For? (Discussion of the above Foreign Affairs article The Myth of Multipolarity, 2023)

Essay: The 2023 BRICS Summit was a bunch of hoopla. We still don't live in a multipolar world.

The multipolarity thesis: the verdict of Unhedged and Chartbook, FT, 2023 (Argues multipolarity is exaggerated. Focuses on financial)

Why has the West been so successful? (Stephen Kotkin - Multipolar world is nonsense)

Middle Ground:

Prospects for a multipolar world order, GS, 2023 (Liechtenstein based)
'A Multipolar World With Bipolar Features', video, Stratfor, 2023
In Defense of Multipolarity, INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY (IPQ), Nov 17, 2023, Germany's leading foreign affairs magazine, offering a Berlin view on foreign affairs.

Multiple views discussed:

The Long unipolar moment?, Foreign Affairs, 2023 (Article with counter-response) - Focuses on multiple dimensions, etc.

Assumption Testing: Multipolarity is more dangerous than bipolarity for the United States, October 23, 2023

Multipolar:

Yes, the World Is Multipolar, and that isn’t bad news for the United States. - Foreign Policy, 2023

A multipolar world can benefit both US and China: ex-FM George Yeo, The Star, 2023 (Singapore)

US needs to accept it’s a multipolar world and work with China, South China Morning Post, 2023

Piece by piece, the BRICS really are building a multipolar world, Atlantic Council, 2023

Focuses on the rise of non-state actors and the state having less power:

The new age of multipolar, 5D war against the West has begun, The Australian, 2023 (See also: The Fate of the State by MARTIN VAN CREVELD)

Western World

Why the West Won’t Collapse

USA

Economy:

US economic outlook:

US long term economic outlook:

US long term economic outlook - Google Search

USA 2030s economic depression:

2030s Great Depression (If the USA sees a Great Depression in the 2030s, it will likely affect the whole world. USA 26% of the global economy in 2023 in nominal terms, and about 15.5% in PPP terms.[1])

Articles, leading power:

These Are the 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Remains the World’s Only Superpower
I’ve Experienced This Cultural Moment Before … in Russia - Decline of the USA and Christian response

The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

Canada

Trudeau's Dystopia: How the Woke Conquered Canada. (Prof. Eric Kaufmann)
Rebel News - Right-wing
National Post - Right-wing
CBC News: The National - Mainstream
CBC News

Europe

According to a September 2022 Ipsos poll, 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline.^[1]

As the HMS United Kingdom was going down, Britons could be heard saying, "We shouldn't have put Charles Darwin on our currency. God is not mocked. We are reaping what we sowed."

European News:

The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) - The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) is the research division of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Europe, a leading American graduate school offering advanced degrees in international relations, international affairs and global risk.

Other:

Europe's anti-Americanism post start of Russia vs. Ukraine War:

Europe’s anti-American itch, Politico, 2022

Classical liberalism view:

Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent:

Death Wish - Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent - Claremont Review of Books
Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent - book

The deindustrialization of Germany/Europe (Europe's economic engine):

The deindustrialization of Germany (Europe's economic engine)

Europe Is Losing Its Factories

India

Websites:

YouTube:

Articles:

India lost the manufacturing race to China. Here's why it could still succeed, 2024

China

Economics:

YouTube channels:

China Update (Pessimistic about China's future)
Lei's Real talk and Lei's Real talk, Website
China Uncensored - YouTube
China Unscripted- YouTube
China Observer - YouTube
China Insights - YouTube
New China TV - YouTube
China News (Epoch News - China. Falun Gong organization run)
China in Focus - YouTube (Falun Gong organization just like the Epoch Times)
South China Morning Post - YouTube
China Fact Chasers - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend. Both formerly were English teachers in China. Mentions YouTube channels they endorse.
The China Show - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend.
ADV China - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend.
Serpentza - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel. Former English teacher in China
laowhy86 - YouTube. I am Matthew Tye from Laowhy86. I am a human rights advocate for China.

China:

The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild || Peter Zeihan
A Conversation with Professor Stephen Kotkin, Kleinheinz Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution - China by Stephen Kotkin, December 2022
The End of China? - Nomad capitalist
The Protestant Work Ethic: Alive & Well…In China

China, leading economic indicators:

China, leading economic indicators (China's figures are suspect due to corruption of the Chinese Communist Party)

Length of modern, authoritarian/communist regimes:

US-China relations

Donald Trump and his China policy

Who Will Trump Listen to On China?, 2024, City Journal

Donald Trump’s First-Term China Strategy Was A Success, National Interest, 2024

China likely stuck in middle-income trap

China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap by Nouriel Roubini (economist), Project Syndicate, 2024

With “Xinomics” Caught in a Trap, China Will Not Join the Ranks of Advanced Economies, September 2023, Nippon.com

China and debt

CHINA Trillion Yuan Debt Disaster: Stimulus Fails to Deliver Economic Growth & Investment Collapses, 2024 video

Chinese export strategy will not work this time

In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards.

Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time, Forbes, April 15, 2024).

Biden hits China with steel tariffs

Biden Hits China With Tariffs | EU-China: Trade Tensions | US-China, April 2024

US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China

US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China, April 17,2024

Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60%

Trump suggests tariffs against nations including China over illegal immigration, 2024

Trump says US China tariffs needed on other vehicles, products, Reuters, May 14, 2024

Joe Biden and Donald Trump battle to prove who can be toughest on China, May 16, 2024 Financial Times

The US Places Huge Tariffs on Chinese Imports || Peter Zeihan, 2024

Economists weigh pros and cons of Trump plan for 60% tariff on China

In 2023, China's exports made up around 18.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

According to World's Top Exports, the United States is one of China's top trading partners, accounting for 14.8% of China's total exports in 2023.

If USA starts decoupling from China, it could spur other countries to as well (Like a contagion). Plus, it would give other countries more bargaining power.

Distribution of Chinese foreign trade in 2022, by trade partner

China's economy is already showing "economic cracks".

Video: Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ?

US tariffs against China may spark China-EU Trade War

Why Biden’s monster EV tariffs could inflame a Europe-China trade war

Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects

See: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

Real Estate Crisis Bailout: ‘It Could Bankrupt Them’ – China’s Massive Bailout, Video 5/2024
China mulls government purchases of unsold homes to ease glut, WION, May 2024
The Plan For China’s Property Crisis May Cost More Than $280 Billion, Forbes, March 1, 2024 ( Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects)

Peter Zeihan on Chinese housing overbuild:

The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild, 2023 (2007/2008 USA housing crisis was 5% housing overbuild. China's overbuild of housing is 200%. THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. )

USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet

No, This Is Not a Cold War—Yet, Why are China hawks exaggerating the threat from Beijing?, Foreign Affairs, 2024

Taiwan

Taiwan talks

Taiwan Plus News

Japan

Why Japan Rejects Western Style Globalism

Japan YouTube channels:

Russia

Russia and Russian economy (Putin's trilemna, Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar). If war in Ukraine ends sooner, then recalibrate when I check on Russia's economy next.
Russia's leading economic indicators
Russia crude oil production
Russia - economy
Russia fertility rate
Russia GDP per capita PPP
Urals oil price

Russia stuck in the middle-income trap:

See also: Middle-income trap

Russia was a high-income country: Russia (2012–14, 2022), but now likely in the middle-income trap. MOSCOW BLOG: Russia is stuck in the middle-income trap, 2017, IntelliNews. See: Middle-income trap and High-income economies

Putinomics and the middle-income trap

Article: Russia’s Economy, War in Ukraine, and Hopes for Post-Putin Liberalization, economist Sergey Guriyev, video at: Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)", Sergey Maratovich Guriyev is a Russian economist, who is provost and a professor of economics at the Institut d'études politiques in Paris. From 2016 to 2019, he was the chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

"Guriev kicked off his keynote address at the Davis Center’s recent 75th anniversary event with a brief economic history of Putin’s Russia, going from growth to “Putinomics” to stagnation:

Its first 10 years (1999-2008) marked one of the Russian economy’s best decades, “if not the best,” on record; a weak ruble made the country more competitive, unused production capacity created business opportunities, and rising oil prices accounted for about half of Russia’s GDP growth, which averaged 7% a year. The economy was likewise helped along by reforms that stimulated private-sector initiative — a simplified tax system, property rights for land, and modern bank regulation, among others.

Then came the global economic crisis of 2008-2009, throwing into relief problems that had begun to accumulate earlier. Circa 2003-2004, Putin, rather than pushing through more reforms, had started introducing “Putinomics” — an economy increasingly “controlled by the state and friends of Putin,” Guriev said. Despite an initial recovery after the crisis, it was clear that “the growth model of Putin’s first decade was running out of steam,” in Guriev’s words; growth in 2010-2012 began slowing down, reaching a paltry 1% in 2013. Afterward, Russia’s economy entered an era of stagnation, akin to the 1970s and ’80s, with GDP growth in 2013-2019 averaging less than 1% a year. Unlike South Korea — which once had a growth trajectory similar to Russia’s halcyon years — Moscow failed to dismantle its system of crony capitalism. Today, Seoul presides over a competitive, post-industrial, knowledge-based economy, while Russia got stuck in the so-called middle-income trap, Guriev noted."

Alternative view of Putinomics: Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia, Heritage Foundation: "When Vladimir Putin first took power in 1999, he was a little-known figure ruling a country that was reeling from a decade and a half of crisis. In the years since, he has reestablished Russia as a great power. How did he do it? What principles have guided Putin’s economic policies? What patterns can be discerned? In this new analysis of Putin’s Russia, Chris Miller examines its economic policy and the tools Russia’s elite have used to achieve its goals. Miller argues that despite Russia’s corruption, cronyism, and overdependence on oil as an economic driver, Putin’s economic strategy has been surprisingly successful."

Will Russian assets be seized?

Seize Russian assets - Google search

Interview: 'I Don't See How This Cannot Happen,' Bill Browder Says Of Seizing Russian Assets, Radio Free Europe, 2/2024
Momentum Builds in Efforts to Seize Russian Assets for Ukraine, Voice of America, 2/2024
Bill Browder

The limits of the Russian military:

The Limits of Russia's War Machine, Peter Zeihan, 2024

Sergei Guriev (Economist):

Sergei Guriev Russia - Google search

Sergei Guriev Russia - YouTube

Alexandra Prokopenko:

Alexandra Prokopenko (Expert on Russian economic and monetary policy and the decision-making. From 2017 until early 2022 Alexandra worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti. She is a graduate of Moscow State University and holds an MA in Sociology from the University of Manchester:

Alexandra Prokopenko - Google News

Alexandra Prokopenko - Moscow Times

Alexandra Prokopenko - YouTube

Alexandra Prokopenko - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Alexandra Prokopenko - Twitter

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - Google News - Yale Researcher

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - YouTube, YouTube

News:

Russia Post
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Moscow Times (con)
The Insider
Silicon Curtain
Inside Russia (Con)
Peter Zeihan - Russia (Con)
Joe Blogs - Russia (Con)
Stephen Kotkin - Russia (Con)
Stephen Kotin - Putin (Con)

John Mearsheimer - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
Steve Turley - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
Dmitry Orlov - YouTube - Dmitry Orlov is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)

The Duran (Pro)
Lena Petrova
Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning
Russia Today (Pro)
Sputnik International (pro)
Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning

Blogs:

Russia Matters - Harvard's Kennedy Center for Science and International Affairs
The Russia File - Mixed bag
In Moscow's Shadows

Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:

Economic problems:

The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development

Russian culture overview:

Russian culture, traditions and art: Russian Culture: Facts, Customs & Traditions and Russian Culture, Traditions, Arts - Britannica and culture of Russia and Russian culture - Core Concepts and Russian Cultural Overview and Russian Culture and A guide to: Russian Traditions, Culture, Customs & Etiquette

Other cultural overview:

A brief history of Russia with Sergei Guriev
Plenary 1: Russia, Civilization, and Western Liberalism
Unwrapping The Enigma, Mystery And Riddle: Stephen Kotkin Explains Russia To Andrew Roberts
Vlad Vexler
A LOOK AT RUSSIAN CIVILIZATION: POWER, TRUTH, TRUST, AND WAR
The Russian Psyche | Konstantin Kisin
U.S–Russia Relations, with Stephen Kotkin, August 2022
The Psychology of an Isolated Russia - Stephen Kotkin
Isaiah Berlin Memorial Lecture 2018: Stephen Kotkin - Sir Isaiah Berlin was a Russian-British social and political theorist, philosopher, and historian of ideas
5 More Questions For Stephen Kotkin: Ukraine Edition
What is Eurasia? - Stephen Kotkin
Russia and the West: A Historical Perspective.
Political abuse of psychiatry in Russia
Russian television excerpts - Russian imperialism
'The borders of Russia do not end' says Putin at awards ceremony - November 24, 2016 (Russian Geographic Society in Moscow)

Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future and The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy

Russia and fertility rate and demographics:

Contemporary Russia:

Russia is burning up its future, Foreign Affairs 2024 (archive) - War in Ukraine is hiring Russia's long term future

Putin:

Vladimir Putin - history and analysis
Putin the planner
Lynch on Lourie, 'Putin: His Downfall and Russia's Coming Crash'
The Putin Paradox: The Missed Opportunity of 1989 & Beyond | Feb. 12, 2020, video (Russia scholar Richard Sakwa was featured on The Duran on March, 11, 2024).[2]
Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union, video, 2020 (Talks about stagnation in Russia)
President Putin asks outgoing government to remain at work - Richard Sakwa, 2020
Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union, 2014 (Achievements and downsides of Putin)
Putin dismissed US warnings about a potential terror incident as 'blackmail' just 3 days before Moscow concert hall attack

Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?

Maps of Russia:

Ukraine:

Kim Iversen: Former NATO Analyst & Top UN Official Says THIS Is The REAL Reason For War In Ukraine
The Chris Hedges Report: The truth about Ukraine with Medea Benjamin - History of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia (And U.S. involvement)
Why it’s wrong to assume American evangelicals are siding with Russia over Ukraine

Russians destroying churches and engaging in religious discrimination in Ukraine:

Report: 500 Ukrainian Churches and Religious Sites Damaged by Russian Military, Christianity Today, 2023

Russia’s War Against Evangelicals, Time, 2024

Russia's fertility rate

Can Putin’s Russia Have More Children, Boost Growth and Reduce Poverty All at Once?, Russia Post, 2024

Russian diaspora

"A large Russian diaspora (sometimes including Russian-speaking non-Russians), estimated at 25 million people, has developed all over the world, with notable numbers in the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Canada."[3] See also: Russian diaspora

Post Ukraine invasion Russian diaspora:

Wartime Emigration and the Russian Diaspora, 2024

The New Russian Diaspora: The New Emigres’ Impact on Putin’s Rule, 2023

Ukrainian And Russian Refugees Fleeing War Set Up Whites Only Bars In Sri Lanka

Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:

Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's, Business Insider, September 2023

Russia's economy faces a 'massive brain drain' as over 1 million young workers exit labor force, Markets Insider, 2023

The Great Russian Brain Drain, Novaya Gazeta Europe, 2023

As Russia sees tech brain drain, other nations hope to gain, Associated Press, 2022

Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?

Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?, 2023 (43,000 Jews fled Russia since the war in Ukraine)

Many high-income people are fleeing Russia:

Billionaire Oligarchs’ Jets Flee Moscow As Putin’s Regime Plunges Into Crisis, Forbes 2024

Russia is ‘hemorrhaging’ millionaires, June 2022

The places that millionares are leaving in 2023-2024. Russian is 4rth on the list.

American views of Putin and Russia:

"Americans overwhelmingly rate Putin negatively: 88% say they do not have confidence in the Russian president to do the right thing regarding world affairs, with two-thirds saying they have no confidence in him at all. A similar share lacked confidence in him in 2023 (90%)." - Pew Research, May 8, 2024[4]

"As Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, Americans remain very negative toward Russia: 91% have an unfavorable view of the country, including 62% who say their views are very unfavorable. Just 7% in the U.S. have a favorable view of Russia. This is a similar level of negativity compared with last year’s survey, when 92% of Americans were negative toward Russia." - Pew Research, Pew Research, May 10, 2023[5]

Post Western World notion

A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner - Part 1

A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner - Part 2

Decline of nations:

Decline of nations - Daniel Greenfield's blog

Map of world by population size

Map of world by population size

Peter Zeihan's view

Peter Zeihan is an American geopolitical analyst and author.
Predicting the Future with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan

The historian Stephen Kotkin on 5 scenarios for Russia's future

Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview, 5-2-2024
The Five Futures of Russia by the historian Steven Kotkin

Will Russia ever have good relations with Europe again? If so, will it happen relatively/somewhat soon or ever?

The Five Futures of Russia by the historian Steven Kotkin

Con view

Does the Bible say anything about Russia in relation to the end times?, Gotquestions.org

Putin's offensive capability will be gone 'within a decade' | Peter Zeihan

West must rebuild relations with Russia from scratch – Kremlin, Russia Today, 2024

Cultures tend to change slow.

The website Cultural Front notes:

“

In chapter 6 of Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell highlights cultural legacies. He opens with disturbing descriptions of how longstanding cultural patterns and beliefs influenced violent conflicts among generations of families in Kentucky during the 19th century.

The compelling research findings concerning long-term and deeply held values led Gladwell to the conclusion that cultural legacies are powerful forces. They have deep roots and long lives. They persist, generation after generation, virtually intact, even as the economic and social demographic conditions that spawned them have vanished, and they play such a role in directing attitudes and behavior that we cannot make sense of our world without them. He goes on to note the possibilities of “taking cultural legacies seriously” in order to learn “why people succeed and how to make people better.”^[2]

”

Pro-view

Russia’s Economy, War in Ukraine, and Hopes for Post-Putin Liberalization, 2023

Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)", 2023

Will Russia Return to Europe?, 2019

International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts

Geopolitics and Empire

Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.):

Geopolitics & Empire

Geopolitics and Empire - Apple Podcast

Geopolitics and Empire - Soundcloud

Burning archive:

The Burning Archive (Former government worker who has studied world history)

Popular International relations and geopolitics:

Zeihan on Geopolitics - Pro-Western

Geopolitical Futures - George Friedman

Caspian Report, Azerbaijan

John Mearsheimer's substack

Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)

Nikola Mikovic - Twitter

Nikola Mikovic - Muckrack

Nikola Mikovic - Diplomaticourier.com

Nikola Mikovic - Lowy Institute

Nikola Mikovic - Arab News

Nikola Mikovic, American Purpose

Pro-Western YouTube channels:

Foreign Affairs

The Economist

Peter Zeihan

Network 20/20

RANE (Related to Stratfor)

Stratfor website

StratNewsGlobal

Geopolitical Futures

Centre for Geopolitics - UK

Gefira Channel - Netherlands

Foreign Policy Research Institute

Geopolitics Daily - Greece, Very Pro-Western

Foreign Policy Association

Geopolitico - Run by Infographics channel guy

Pro-Western podcasts:

The Truth of the Matter - Center for Strategic and International Studies
Brookings Institution Podcast (Current affairs, tech news, economic news and Africa)
The World in 30 Minutes - European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
ECFR on Air
Economist Podcast
First Person - Foreign Policy Podcast]

India:

Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western or anti-Western

The Duran

Glen Diesen

Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning

Alexander Mercouris

Alex Christoforou

Neutrality Studies

The New Atlas

International relations websites - Pro-Western

Foreign Affairs

The Diplomat - Asia Pacific - Affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies

Foreign Policy (Founded by Samuel Huntington, but endorsed Hillary Clinton)

Foreign Policy Research Institute

Israel

JNS (BTW, JNS is also critical on ADL's Greenblatt woke stuff), INN, and at times center leaning I24, or left leaning - Ynet or TOI. ILH is center leaning. Note. JPost is usually center leaning when it states it's by "Jerusalem Post Staff," but it often posts pure Reuters stuff.

Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles

Jonathan Cahn: Seeing God's Guiding Hand Over Israel

Modern Israel fulfills biblical prophecy:

Prophecies about the land of Israel fulfilled in our lifetime: Is Modern Israel Fulfilling Prophecy? and Is the modern state of Israel the fullfillment of prophecy and Unveiling the mysteries of Israel: Four biblical prophecies being fulfilled right now.

Miracles

Six Day War

USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism

Trends:

Pointless and costly wars such as the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more isolationist sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful diplomacy. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: Just War Theory).

Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector).

NATO

NATO

Why NATO may have to stop a Russian invasion - without the US, Daily Mail, 2023

NATO–Russia relations

NATO and Russia

Expansion of NATO

Pro-NATO expansion:

Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion
"But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[6]

Historian Mary E. Sarotte on issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:

Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by Mary E. Sarotte. ‎Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)

Middle of the road on NATO expansion:

Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News, claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO

Anti-NATO expansion:

Stephen F. Cohen: NATO expansion and Russia, claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO

Gravitas Ukraine Direct: Did NATO betray Russia?

Why NATO is a threat to Putin | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman

War in Ukraine is the fault of US and NATO | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman

Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer - Anti-NATO expansion

Putin Tells Oliver Stone about his NATO Concerns

Part 1: Oliver Stone Interviews Putin on U.S.-Russia Relations, 2016 Election, Snowden & NATO

Part 2: Oliver Stone Interviews Putin on U.S.-Russia Relations, 2016 Election, Snowden & NATO

NATO's soft underbellys

Russian MP’s Big Claim: Putin Planning to Attack NATO's Underbelly? | Vantage with Palki Sharma

NATO Must Contest Russian Moves in Its Southern Underbelly

China and Christianity

This fascinating map shows the new religious breakdown in China

What would a post-communist China look like?

What Comes After the Communist Party in China?

World map

World Map

World map by population

World map by population, 2018

Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future

John Mearsheimer's view

The 2022 Holberg Debate w/ John Mearsheimer and Carl Bildt: Ukraine, Russia, China and the West
John Mearsheimer: The West is playing Russian roulette
Russians and NATO both feel that they cannot lose - War could drag on at a lower level for years and this is a dangerous situation.

Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine

Does the US still have the Capacity for Global Dominance? | Prof. John Mearsheimer, 2024, Ukraine, Taiwan and The True Cause of War | John Mearsheimer, 2024. Mearsheimer says the war in Ukraine revealed shortcomings of US Defense policies. Mearsheimer believes USA will fix its industrial capacity problems and upgrade its drone capabilities so it can better fight a potential war with China. Mearsheimer says that the USA's unpreparedness is a vestigage of the former unipolar world and that major power politics has returned. US populace embracing isolationism more in terms of young people, etc., but Mearsheimer argues that Washington/military industrial complex ignores what public wants.

Mearsheimer argues that liberalism pulls a society apart due to disagreement on first principles and that is why it preaches tolerance, but nationalism is a glue that helps hold a society together.[7]. Mearsheimer says liberals don't like realist school of politics because it goes against the grain of idealism and they like to pretend that liberal democracies never engage in realpolitik type behavior.[8]

Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems.

Peter Zeihan's view

The Old World Order Is About To Collapse - Peter Zeihan - 2022

Peter Zeihan Warns End Of Great Powers Will Bring Famine And Destruction For Smaller Nations -2022

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio -2022 (Ray Dahlio has some good ideas, but he is inconsistent when it comes to China[9])

Changing civilizational world order

Civilizational World Order w/Dr. Steve Turley - Listen to this

Globalization of trade

Globalization of Trade Isn’t Going Anywhere. World trade in goods may have plateaued but did so at historically high levels, Meanwhile, other indicia of globalization—trade in services, digital trade, cross‐border investment and migration, and cultural exchange—continue to increase. CATO, 2023

Books

Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies by Jared Diamond Ph.D.

The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan

Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda

Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda

Military, wars and mass murder

WWII photo montage

"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History (Fukuyama) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor Eric Kaufmann, Twitter/X.[10], See: War and Peace.

How long do wars last?

Wars start out as wars of maneuver. If a war a war of maneuver doesn't achieve victory in 6 months, then it most cases it turns into a war of attrition (Wars of attrition are more common than insurgencies after a war).[11]

Wars are ended by removing an enemies will to fight and/or ability to fight (Productive capacity)[12]

"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - Sun Tzu

"What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations." - Sun Tzu

"There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu

How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics:

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine

“

Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.^[3]

”

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.^[4]

Just war vs. realist view of war

War and International Politics , John Mearsheimer (He discusses realist view of war vs. Just War doctrine of war)

Winning the peace vs. winning a war

How Not to Win the War, but the Peace - Stephen Kotkin

Stephen Kotkin: Winning the peace vs. winning a war - short version

Military

Wars and warlike natures

Studies:

Democracies More Prone to Start Wars – Except When They're Not

Democratic peace theory and related matters

Democratic peace theory

Mass murder

Atheism and mass murder

Godless leftists with utopian visons are more mass murder prone than godless libertarians

Right-wing death squads vs. Left-wing murderous regimes

Do they want right-wing death squads

Military concepts

Military competence and incompetence

Military competence

Deliberate Discomfort: How U.S. Special Operations Forces Overcome Fear and Dare to Win by Getting Comfortable Being Uncomfortable by Jason B.A. Van Camp and Andy Symonds. Ballast Books (February 18, 2020)

Military incompetence

On the Psychology of Military Incompetence by Norman F Dixon. Basic Books; Illustrated edition (May 31, 2016)

Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)

Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences

DO SANCTIONS ACTUALLY WORK? EXPERTS EVALUATE THE EFFICACY OF THIS WIDELY USED FOREIGN POLICY TOOL (“What we found is that it works in ways that we don’t want it to work. And it doesn’t work in the ways that we want it to work,” said Middle East expert Vali Nasr, one of the book’s authors.)

International agreements

International agreements often fail to achieve their intended results

While international agreements certainly have their place and peace/peacemaking are always a good thing to pursue, research indicates that most international agreements fail to achieve their aims (International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects, PNAS, August 1, 2022, 119 (32) e2122854119 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2122854119). Given men's frequent cases of poor thinking/planning and the sinfulness of human nature, this is not entirely surprising.

Also, as far as the Russian/Ukrainian peace negotiations, agreements are only as good as the trustworthiness of the people signing them. And unfortunately, Russia/Putin/Biden Administration are all corrupt and shown HERE as can be seen in points #1, #2 and #3.

And when I look at the Minsk Agreements, former agreements and promises mentioned below, I see Russia/Ukraine/West breaking agreements/promises. Also, as far as the Minsk Agreements, as can be seen below, Russia appears to be the biggest violaters of the Minsk Agreements, with Ukraine breaking the agreements also.

Russia, West, Ukraine and the West all acting badly in terms of Minsk Agreements, agreements and promises:

Russia acting badly:

Both Russia and Ukraine Were Violaters of Minks Agreements, but Russia was a bigger violater, 2017

History shows that no ceasefire or treaty with Russia can be trusted, The Hill, 2024

TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 2016, U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations: "Russia has acted contrary to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Incidents at Sea Agreement. Russia has altered the human rights landscape within its own country, decreasing democracy and begging questions about the future of governance, not just in Moscow, but across the Federation. Moreover, Russia has joined the civil war in Syria and begun militarizing the Arctic."^[5]

West and Ukraine acting badly:

Merkel admits that West were not sincere about Minsk Agreements, Yahoo News, 2022

The West has broken its promises to developing countries – and we’re all paying the price, The Guardian, 2023

Notes

↑ 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline, 2022 Ipsos poll
↑ Outliers & Cultural Legacies
↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
↑ RUSSIAN VIOLATIONS OF BORDERS, TREATIES, AND HUMAN RIGHTS

[1] 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline, 2022 Ipsos poll

[2] Outliers & Cultural Legacies

[3] How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website

[4] How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website

[5] RUSSIAN VIOLATIONS OF BORDERS, TREATIES, AND HUMAN RIGHTS

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
+[[User:Conservative/Politics|Politics]]
+== World economics and trends ==
+=== GNP by country ===
+Per capita:
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(PPP)_per_capita List of countries by GNI (PPP) per capita]
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(nominal)_per_capita List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita]
+Total GNP:
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_national_income Gross national income]
+*[https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gnp-gross-national-product GNP by country], Macrotrends
+*[https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/gnp-by-country GNP by country], Worldpopulationreview.com
+=== 2023 ===
+*[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-105-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/ Visualizing the $105 Trillion World Economy in One Chart], August 2023
+*[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-richest-countries-2023-gdp-per-capita/ Ranked: The World’s 25 Richest Countries by GDP per Capita], 2023
+== 2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics ==
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oevcTSV0tO8 Stephen Kotkin on Lost in Translation: World Order & Word Order | HISPBC Ch.1], 2024
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqFZam02Kmg Stephen Kotkin on Principles & Pragmatism: Walking the Geopolitical Tightrope | HISPBC Ch.2], 2024
+== World News ==
+'''World news Western perspective:'''
+*[https://wng.org/ World News]
+*[https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/ World news - United Press International]
+*[https://www.reuters.com/world/ World News - Reuters]
+*[https://www.wsj.com/world?mod=nav_top_section Wall Street Journal]
+*[https://apnews.com/world-news World news - Associated Press]
+'''World News - NonWestern perspective:'''
+*[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world Times of India - World news]
+*[https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news Hindustan Times - World news]
+*[https://www.wionews.com/world Wion News - World]
+*[https://www.rt.com/news/ Russia Today - World news]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@HT-Videos/videos Hindustan Times - YouTube]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_gUM8rL-Lrg6O3adPW9K1g/videos WION news]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@BusinessBasicsYT/videos Business basics] - Mixed bag of quality, geopolitics
+'''Non-Western international politics YouTube channels perspective:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@CaspianReport/videos The Caspian Report], [[Azerbaijan]] based, Mixed bag in terms of quality
+'''World news. Data-driven UK YouTube video channel:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@JoeBlogs/videos Joe Blogs]
+== Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history ==
+=== Burning Archive ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@theburningarchive/videos Burning Archive] - YouTube
+*[https://jeffrich.substack.com/ Burning Archive substack] - Substack
+*[https://jeffrich.substack.com/podcast Burning Archive podcast]
+*[https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-burning-archive/id1562981468 Burning Achive Apple Podcast] - Apple Podcast
+=== Stephen Kotkin lectures ===
+*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=e9be6bafba5c0576&q=stephen+kotkin&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjgnJ_b-MiEAxXMEVkFHbEYAfgQ0pQJegQIChAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Stephen Kotkin] - Google search
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin Stephen Kotkin] - YouTube search
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCusFCg-z_0 Stephen Kotkin: Turning Points: Yesterday’s World, and Tomorrow’s]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbjmSS6LZDGp-B8j17UbbY8Z2HznqcV3y Steve Kotkin - Sphere of influence lectures - 3 part series]
+=== World Politics Review ===
+Combines realist/liberal internationalist school perspective. Written by several hundred contributors from around the world, experts in a variety of disciplines.
+*[https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/ World Politics Review], website
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@worldpoliticsreview/videos World Politics Review], YouTube
+=== Emmanuel Todd ===
+*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=e9be6bafba5c0576&q=emmanuel+todd&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiL9drS9ciEAxVhKFkFHYLTDuAQ0pQJegQIDBAB&cshid=1708947649674953&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Emmanuel Todd] - Contrarian French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris.
+=== The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc Peter Zeihan | The Changing Character of War], [[Peter Zeihan]]
+=== Current state of the world in terms of polarity and international relations ===
+Biggest mistakes of view of international politics in terms of distortions are these 3: Geography is destiny (Mackinder), world is simply great power politics (Mearsheimer) and cycles of history (Turchin). See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_vKhXyJ76o Three mistakes geopolitics makes about history (Mackinder, Mearsheimer, Turchin)]. Better way to look at things is look at specific/unique circumstances. Theories/ideology should not trump reality/specific/unique history.
+World is currently a mix of nationalism/cultures/global trade and political blocks (West vs. China/Russia/Iran/North Korea. Also, nonaligned countries. USA is still the strongest country in terms of economics, etc.).
+*[https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/daily-review-global-order-reglobalization/ How ‘Reglobalization’ (nationalism/political blocks/world trade) Is Changing the World)]
+=== Polarity (International relations) ===
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polarity_(international_relations) Polarity - International relations]
+Bipolar:
+*[[Essay: The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?|The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?]]
+*[https://archive.md/mEqCv#selection-1105.0-1109.30 The Myth of Multipolarity], American Power’s Staying Power, ''Foreign Affairs'', April 18, 2023
+*[https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/22/multipolar-world-bipolar-power-geopolitics-business-strategy-china-united-states-india/ No, the World Is Not Multipolar], ''Foreign Affairs'', September 22, 2023
+*[https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/multipolarity-what-is-it-good-for/ Multipolarity: What Is It Good For?] (Discussion of the above ''Foreign Affairs'' article ''The Myth of Multipolarity'', 2023)
+*[[Essay: The 2023 BRICS Summit was a bunch of hoopla. We still don't live in a multipolar world.]]
+*[https://archive.md/ECZFt The multipolarity thesis: the verdict of Unhedged and Chartbook], FT, 2023 (Argues multipolarity is exaggerated. Focuses on financial)
+*[[Essay: Why has the West been so successful?|Why has the West been so successful?]] (Stephen Kotkin - Multipolar world is nonsense)
+Middle Ground:
+*[https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/multipolar-world-order/ Prospects for a multipolar world order], GS, 2023 (Liechtenstein based)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZwkwVrQjtU 'A Multipolar World With Bipolar Features'], video, Stratfor, 2023
+*[https://ip-quarterly.com/en/defense-multipolarity In Defense of Multipolarity], INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY (IPQ), Nov 17, 2023, Germany's leading foreign affairs magazine, offering a Berlin view on foreign affairs.
+Multiple views discussed:
+*[https://www.foreignaffairs.com/responses/long-unipolar-moment The Long unipolar moment?], Foreign Affairs, 2023 (Article with counter-response) - Focuses on multiple dimensions, etc.
+*[https://www.stimson.org/2023/assumption-testing-multipolarity-is-more-dangerous-than-bipolarity-for-the-united-states/ Assumption Testing: Multipolarity is more dangerous than bipolarity for the United States], October 23, 2023
+Multipolar:
+*[https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/05/usa-china-multipolar-bipolar-unipolar/ Yes, the World Is Multipolar], and that isn’t bad news for the United States. - Foreign Policy, 2023
+*[https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/12/16/a-multipolar-world-can-benefit-both-us-and-china-ex-fm-george-yeo A multipolar world can benefit both US and China: ex-FM George Yeo], The Star, 2023 (Singapore)
+*[https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3237591/us-needs-accept-its-multipolar-world-and-work-china US needs to accept it’s a multipolar world and work with China], South China Morning Post, 2023
+*[https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/piece-by-piece-the-brics-really-are-building-a-multipolar-world/ Piece by piece, the BRICS really are building a multipolar world], Atlantic Council, 2023
+Focuses on the rise of non-state actors and the state having less power:
+*[https://archive.md/NOeJM#selection-243.5-243.65 The new age of multipolar, 5D war against the West has begun], The Australian, 2023 (See also: [https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1764&context=parameters The Fate of the State by MARTIN VAN CREVELD])
+=== Western World ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qovJZwIVr0 Why the West Won’t Collapse]
+=== USA ===
+Economy:
+*[https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/composite-leading-indicator#:~:text=Composite%20Leading%20Indicator%20in%20the%20United%20States%20averaged%20100.00%20points,source%3A%20OECD USA Composite Leading Index]
+*[https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/leading-economic-index USA Leading Index]
+*[https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/global_economy/globalindicators USA/Western economic indicators]
+*[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+economy+&sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&sxsrf=ACQVn08--Ea9oiF5o9oxsUmBUyeWZxOaXw%3A1713995375352&ei=b34pZo-PFbufptQPzb-JiAg&ved=0ahUKEwjPgvqr6tuFAxW7j4kEHc1fAoEQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=us+economy+&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiC3VzIGVjb25vbXkgMgoQIxiABBgnGIoFMgsQABiABBiRAhiKBTILEAAYgAQYkQIYigUyEBAAGIAEGLEDGEMYgwEYigUyCBAAGIAEGLEDMhAQABiABBixAxhDGIMBGIoFMgoQABiABBhDGIoFMhAQABiABBixAxhDGIMBGIoFMg4QABiABBixAxiDARiKBTILEAAYgAQYsQMYgwFI4DlQAFjKK3ABeAGQAQCYAboBoAGGC6oBBDAuMTG4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgygAscMqAIUwgIHECMYJxjqAsICExAAGIAEGEMYtAIYigUY6gLYAQHCAgQQIxgnwgIREC4YgAQYsQMY0QMYgwEYxwHCAgUQABiABMICChAAGIAEGBQYhwLCAggQLhiABBixA8ICEBAAGIAEGLEDGEMYyQMYigXCAggQABiABBiSA8ICCxAAGIAEGJIDGIoFwgIWEC4YgAQYsQMYQxiDARjHARiKBRivAcICCxAuGIAEGMcBGK8BwgIQEAAYgAQYsQMYgwEYFBiHAsICERAAGIAEGJECGLEDGIMBGIoFmAMbugYGCAEQARgBkgcGMS4xMC4xoAercQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp US economy - Google News search]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=us+economy US economy] - YouTube search
+*[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+debt&sca_esv=f977441fd745688c&prmd=nivsbmtz&sxsrf=ACQVn08Uvp5nfjoW-O6L6o_1HDvqWZr5Pw:1714659827855&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwibsMzPle-FAxWNl4kEHa6mBZoQ0pQJegQIBhAC&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 US debt]
+*[https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)]
+US economic outlook:
+*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&sxsrf=ACQVn0-2oZiQ3vEwnrZ-A14S5co9ps6JWA:1713995495536&q=us+economic+outlook&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=nivsbmtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiWxaHl6tuFAxVwlIkEHfv7CXkQ0pQJegQIDRAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 US economic outlook - Google News]
+*[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+economic+outlook+&sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&biw=1920&bih=927&sxsrf=ACQVn0_04uQOZnqY-6zju5zRQA_1IVW75Q%3A1714660174070&ei=TqMzZq7mA42vptQPrs2W0Ak&ved=0ahUKEwiuxdf0lu-FAxWNl4kEHa6mBZoQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=us+economic+outlook+&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiFHVzIGVjb25vbWljIG91dGxvb2sgMgoQIxiABBgnGIoFMgQQIxgnMgsQABiABBiRAhiKBTIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgARIqBBQ7AdYwwxwAXgBkAEAmAF4oAG9A6oBAzAuNLgBA8gBAPgBAZgCBaACgwTCAgoQABiwAxjWBBhHwgINEAAYgAQYsAMYQxiKBcICBhAAGBYYHpgDAIgGAZAGCZIHAzEuNKAH4CA&sclient=gws-wiz-serp US economic outlook - Google search]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=us+economic+outlook US economic outlook] - YouTube
+US long term economic outlook:
+*[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+long+term++economic+outlook&sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&biw=1920&bih=927&sxsrf=ACQVn0-hC0DrbvZ6HYGcwYV0qbKdSFGz2A%3A1713995628190&ei=bH8pZsCXC9arptQPwaOoqAc&ved=0ahUKEwjA_cGk69uFAxXWlYkEHcERCnUQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=us+long+term++economic+outlook&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiHnVzIGxvbmcgdGVybSAgZWNvbm9taWMgb3V0bG9vazIFEAAYgAQyBhAAGBYYHjILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYogRIgz5QnwxY-StwAXgBkAEAmAGkAaABrQWqAQMwLjW4AQPIAQD4AQH4AQKYAgagAu0FwgIKEAAYsAMY1gQYR8ICBhAAGAcYHsICCBAAGAcYCBgewgIIEAAYBRgHGB7CAgYQABgIGB7CAgcQABiABBgNmAMAiAYBkAYIkgcDMS41oAfeHg&sclient=gws-wiz-serp US long term economic outlook - Google Search]
+USA 2030s economic depression:
+*[https://itreconomics.com/2030s-great-depression/ 2030s Great Depression] (If the USA sees a [[Great Depression]] in the 2030s, it will likely affect the whole world. USA 26% of the global economy in 2023 in nominal terms, and about 15.5% in PPP terms.[https://www.statista.com/statistics/270267/united-states-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=United%20States%20share%20of%20global%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP)%202028&text=In%202022%2C%20the%20United%20States,seventh%20of%20the%20global%20total.])
+Articles, leading power:
+*[http://time.com/3899972/us-superpower-status-military/ These Are the 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Remains the World’s Only Superpower]
+*[https://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2020/august-web-only/ive-experienced-this-cultural-moment-before-in-russia.html I’ve Experienced This Cultural Moment Before … in Russia] - Decline of the USA and Christian response
+*[[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]]
+=== Canada ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvPXkPcBWsc Trudeau's Dystopia: How the Woke Conquered Canada. (Prof. Eric Kaufmann)]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@RebelNewsOnline/videos Rebel News] - Right-wing
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@nationalpost/videos National Post] - Right-wing
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@CBCTheNational/videos CBC News: The National] - Mainstream
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@CBCNews/videos CBC News]
+=== Europe ===
+[[File:There are no atheists on a sinking ship.jpg|thumbnail|right|400px|According to a September 2022 Ipsos poll, 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline.<ref>[https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/7-10-britons-agree-uk-decline 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline], 2022 Ipsos poll</ref>
+<br />
+<br />
+As the HMS [[United Kingdom]] was going down, Britons could be heard saying, "We shouldn't have put [[Charles Darwin]] on our currency. God is not mocked. We are reaping what we sowed."]]
+European News:
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@JHUBIPR/videos The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR)] -  The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) is the research division of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Europe, a leading American graduate school offering advanced degrees in international relations, international affairs and global risk.
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@TLDRnewsEU/videos TLDR Euronews YouTube channel]
+*[https://www.breitbart.com/tag/europe/ Breitbart - Europe]
+*[https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=europe&FORM=HDRSC7 Europe - Bing news]
+*[https://www.france24.com/en/europe/ France 24 - Europe]
+*[https://www.politico.eu/ Politico Europe]
+*[https://www.euronews.com/my-europe Europe - Euronews]
+*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=572890011&sxsrf=AM9HkKk_KP3T1X7Kr-q80GqAq8hsBKQX_g:1697127958160&q=Europe&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiJi9ao9vCBAxXUkIkEHVJpDbEQ0pQJegQIChAB&biw=1920&bih=941 Europe - Google News]
+Other:
+*[https://www.courthousenews.com/eu-records-lowest-birthrate-amid-a-steady-60-year-decline/ EU records lowest birthrate amid a steady 60-year decline]
+*[https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/why-is-europe-losing-the-will-to-breed-1.2644169 Why is Europe losing the will to breed?]- Irish Times, 2016
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T15ZJN8Tps David Harsanyi – On Busting the Myth of European Superiority]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUWpFn0AzZQ Everything You Hear About Europe is Wrong]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpHYR8Y_F3I David Harsanyi: “Eurotrash”—Rejecting the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6jCoV5T-Is David Harsanyi, Author of "Eurotrash" on The Interview with Hugh Hewitt]
+Europe's anti-Americanism post start of Russia vs. Ukraine War:
+*[https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-us-anti-american-biden-trade-gas-weapons-economy-inflation-reduction-act/ Europe’s anti-American itch], Politico, 2022
+'''Classical liberalism view:'''
+Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent:
+*[https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/death-wish/ Death Wish - Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent] - Claremont Review of Books
+*[https://www.amazon.com/Eurotrash-America-Reject-Failed-Continent/dp/0063066017/ Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent] - book
+'''The deindustrialization of Germany/Europe (Europe's economic engine):'''
+*[https://www.politico.eu/article/rust-belt-on-the-rhine-the-deindustrialization-of-germany/ The deindustrialization of Germany (Europe's economic engine)]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3bxgkJNv40 Europe Is Losing Its Factories]
+=== India ===
+Websites:
+*[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/us Times of India]
+*[https://www.wionews.com/ WION]
+*[https://www.firstpost.com/ First Post]
+*[https://www.hindustantimes.com/ Hindustan Times]
+*[https://www.orfonline.org/ Observer Research Foundation]
+YouTube:
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@timesofindia/videos Times of India]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@WION/videos WION]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@Firstpost First Post]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@HT-Videos/videos Hindustan Times]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ORFDelhi/videos Observer Research Foundation]
+Articles:
+*[https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2024/06/04/g-s1-2226/india-election-democracy-china-economy-manufacturing India lost the manufacturing race to China. Here's why it could still succeed], 2024
+=== China ===
+Economics:
+*[https://tradingeconomics.com/china/composite-leading-indicator China composite leading indicator index]
+*[https://www.google.com/search?q=china+economy&oq=china+economy&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyDggAEEUYJxg5GIAEGIoFMgwIARAjGCcYgAQYigUyEAgCEAAYkQIYsQMYgAQYigUyDQgDEAAYkQIYgAQYigUyDQgEEAAYkQIYgAQYigUyBggFEEUYPDIGCAYQRRg8MgYIBxAuGEDSAQg3MzUxajBqM6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 China economy] - Google search
+*[https://www.google.com/search?q=china%27s+debt&oq=china%27s+debt&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyCQgAEEUYORiABDIHCAEQABiABDIHCAIQABiABDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIHCAYQABiABDIHCAcQABiABDIHCAgQABiABDIGCAkQLhhA0gEINTY3MWowajSoAgCwAgE&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 China's debt]
+YouTube channels:
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaUpdate/videos  China Update] (Pessimistic about China's future)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@LeisRealTalk/videos Lei's Real talk] and [https://leisrealtalk.com/  Lei's Real talk], Website
+*[https://www.youtube.com/user/NTDChinaUncensored/videos?disable_polymer=1 China Uncensored] - YouTube
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaUnscripted/videos China Unscripted]- YouTube
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaObserver0/videos China Observer] - YouTube
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@chinainsights4458/videos China Insights] - YouTube
+*[https://www.youtube.com/user/ChinaViewTV/videos?disable_polymer=1 New China TV] - YouTube
+*[https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-news China News] (Epoch News - China. Falun Gong organization run)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ChinainFocusNTD/videos China in Focus] - YouTube  (Falun Gong organization just like the Epoch Times)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/user/scmp888/videos?disable_polymer=1 South China Morning Post] - YouTube
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaFactChasers/videos China Fact Chasers] - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend. Both formerly were English teachers in China. Mentions YouTube channels they endorse.
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@TheChinaShow/videos The China Show] - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend.
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ADVChina/videos ADV China] - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend.
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@serpentza/videos Serpentza] - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel. Former English teacher in China
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@laowhy86/videos laowhy86] - YouTube. I am Matthew Tye from Laowhy86. I am a human rights advocate for China.
+China:
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVMlEiewyT4 The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild || Peter Zeihan]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtYpa7LYwmQ A Conversation with Professor Stephen Kotkin, Kleinheinz Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution - China] by Stephen Kotkin, December 2022
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkH8c_OUKbQ The End of China?] - Nomad capitalist
+*[https://tifwe.org/the-protestant-work-ethic-alive-well-in-china/ The Protestant Work Ethic: Alive & Well…In China]
+China, leading economic indicators:
+*[https://tradingeconomics.com/china/indicators China, leading economic indicators] (China's figures are suspect due to corruption of the Chinese Communist Party)
+Length of modern, authoritarian/communist regimes:
+*[https://archive.ph/Sv2MA#selection-1651.7-1659.100 The Chinese Communist Party is on the verge of turning today's China into yesterday's Soviet Union]
+*[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/chinas-communist-party-is-at-a-fatal-age-for-one-party-regimes/11807138 China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?]
+==== US-China relations ====
+===== Donald Trump and his China policy =====
+*[https://www.city-journal.org/article/who-will-trump-listen-to-on-china Who Will Trump Listen to On China?], 2024, City Journal
+*[https://nationalinterest.org/feature/donald-trump%E2%80%99s-first-term-china-strategy-was-success-211110 Donald Trump’s First-Term China Strategy Was A Success], National Interest, 2024
+==== China likely stuck in middle-income trap ====
+*[https://archive.ph/AcvtG China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap] by Nouriel Roubini (economist), Project Syndicate, 2024
+*[https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00922/ With “Xinomics” Caught in a Trap, China Will Not Join the Ranks of Advanced Economies], September 2023, Nippon.com
+===== China and debt =====
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cfg1OkEdP20 CHINA Trillion Yuan Debt Disaster: Stimulus Fails to Deliver Economic Growth & Investment Collapses], 2024 video
+==== Chinese export strategy will not work this time ====
+[[File:House-of-cards.jpg|thumbnail|right|300px|In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards. ]]
+Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: [https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/04/15/chinas-export-game-wont-work-this-time/?sh=2953510c68b9 China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time], ''Forbes'', April 15, 2024).
+===== Biden hits China with steel tariffs =====
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s94v5OlaTE Biden Hits China With Tariffs | EU-China: Trade Tensions | US-China], April 2024
+====== US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China ======
+*[https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ustr-tai-calls-decisive-action-shield-ev-sector-china-2024-04-17/ US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China], April 17,2024
+====== Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ======
+*[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-suggests-tariffs-against-nations-including-china-over-illegal-immigration-2024-06-06/ Trump suggests tariffs against nations including China over illegal immigration], 2024
+*[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-us-china-tariffs-needed-other-vehicles-products-2024-05-14/ Trump says US China tariffs needed on other vehicles, products], Reuters, May 14, 2024
+*[https://archive.ph/Psw3W#selection-1575.0-1575.71 Joe Biden and Donald Trump battle to prove who can be toughest on China], May 16, 2024 Financial Times
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uafb8OMC88 The US Places Huge Tariffs on Chinese Imports || Peter Zeihan], 2024
+*[https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/economists-weigh-pros-cons-trump-plan-60-tariff-china Economists weigh pros and cons of Trump plan for 60% tariff on China]
+In 2023, China's exports made up around 18.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP).
+According to World's Top Exports, the United States is one of China's top trading partners, accounting for 14.8% of China's total exports in 2023.
+If USA starts decoupling from China, it could spur other countries to as well (Like a contagion). Plus, it would give other countries more bargaining power.
+*[https://www.statista.com/statistics/257112/main-import-partners-for-china/#:~:text=Distribution%20of%20Chinese%20foreign%20trade%202022%2C%20by%20trade%20partner&text=In%202022%2C%20ASEAN%20was%20China's,to%2012%20percent%20in%202022. Distribution of Chinese foreign trade in 2022, by trade partner]
+China's economy is already showing "economic cracks".
+'''Video:''' [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eem7d58gjno Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ]?
+====== US tariffs against China may spark China-EU Trade War  ======
+*[https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/business/us-tariffs-ev-europe-china-trade/index.html Why Biden’s monster EV tariffs could inflame a Europe-China trade war]
+====== Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects ======
+See: [[Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)]]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd4LzZI_NGw Real Estate Crisis Bailout: ‘It Could Bankrupt Them’ – China’s Massive Bailout], Video 5/2024
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG6G4ru8Vuw China mulls government purchases of unsold homes to ease glut], WION, May 2024
+*[https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/03/01/the-plan-for-chinas-property-crisis-may-cost-more-than-280-billion/?sh=6506b5f5567f#:~:text=The%20Plan%20For%20China%E2%80%99s%20Property%20Crisis%20May%20Cost%20More%20Than%20%24280%20Billion The Plan For China’s Property Crisis May Cost More Than $280 Billion], Forbes, March 1, 2024 ( Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects)
+Peter Zeihan on Chinese housing overbuild:
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVMlEiewyT4 The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild], 2023 (2007/2008 USA housing crisis was 5% housing overbuild.  China's overbuild of housing is 200%.   THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. )
+====== Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back ======
+[https://archive.ph/zXoPd#selection-1001.0-1001.47 Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back], Economist, May 16, 2024
+=====  China and a potential balance sheet recession  =====
+*[https://archive.ph/ZOtpx#selection-881.0-881.129 What must China do to avoid a Japan-type recession? Economist Richard Koo adds up why ‘the Chinese situation is far more serious’], May 2024, South China Morning Post
+*[https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-balance-sheet-recession-is-similar-and-different-to-that-of-japan-nris-richard-koo-says China's 'Balance Sheet Recession' Is Like, Unlike Japan’s, Economist Who Coined Term Says], 2024
+==== Anti-China hawks ====
+*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=d9aad694f8688876&sxsrf=ADLYWIKV9BL7PBTk0Ux1xR9hCvuzXGMbyw:1715049806250&q=michael+pilsbury&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=invsmbtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi91OSzwvqFAxUrFlkFHfStBm4Q0pQJegQIEBAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Michael Pilsbury - Google search]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=michael+pilsbury+&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Michael Pilsbury - YouTube]
+==== Pro-China doves ====
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=keyu+jin Professor Keyu Jin - YouTube]
+*[https://twitter.com/keyujin?lang=en Key Jin - Twitter]
+*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=d265e0c6ccb16526&sxsrf=ADLYWIKUD1cqq2cG9ZAASEi6Wk9wTXM3AQ:1715050568819&q=keyu+jin&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=invsmbtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjMkbSfxfqFAxUHnokEHXlCBYgQ0pQJegQIDxAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Keyu Jin - Google News]
+==== USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet ====
+*[https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/07/cold-war-cold-peace-united-states-china-xi-decoupling-trade/ No, This Is Not a Cold War—Yet], Why are China hawks exaggerating the threat from Beijing?, Foreign Affairs, 2024
+=== Taiwan ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@taiwan_talks/videos Taiwan talks]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@TaiwanPlusNews/videos Taiwan Plus News]
+=== Japan ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVbrVaLIYvA Why Japan Rejects Western Style Globalism]
+Japan YouTube channels:
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@NipponTVNews24Japan/videos Nippon TV News 24 Japan]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@NHKWORLDJAPAN/videos NHK WORLD-JAPAN]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@LifeWhereImFrom/videos Life Where I am From]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@AbroadinJapan/videos Abroad in Japan]
+=== Russia ===
+*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home Russia and Russian economy] (Putin's trilemna, Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar). If war in Ukraine ends sooner, then recalibrate when I check on Russia's economy next.
+*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/indicators Russia's leading economic indicators]
+*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/crude-oil-production Russia crude oil production]
+*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=587356145&sxsrf=AM9HkKn4XkQNN8kJGanSmYTMf2cpIHTbmg:1701557801049&q=russian+economy&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiTiq_i7PGCAxUoIDQIHXcgASIQ0pQJegQIDBAB&biw=1920&bih=941&dpr=1 Russia - economy]
+*[https://www.google.com/search?q=russia+fertility+rate+&sca_esv=600112330&ei=ki-sZc6EMavG0PEP1buyuAk&ved=0ahUKEwjOlafH6eyDAxUrIzQIHdWdDJcQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=russia+fertility+rate+&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiFnJ1c3NpYSBmZXJ0aWxpdHkgcmF0ZSAyChAAGIAEGIoFGEMyBRAAGIAEMgoQABiABBiKBRhDMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBhAAGBYYHjIGEAAYFhgeMggQABgWGB4YDzIGEAAYFhgeMgYQABgWGB5IwhBQhglYoA1wAXgBkAEAmAFzoAGiA6oBAzIuMrgBA8gBAPgBAcICChAAGEcY1gQYsAPCAg0QABiABBiKBRhDGLADwgILEAAYgAQYigUYhgPiAwQYACBBiAYBkAYK&sclient=gws-wiz-serp Russia fertility rate]
+*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-per-capita-ppp Russia GDP per capita PPP]
+*[https://www.google.com/search?q=urals+oil+price&sca_esv=587351034&sxsrf=AM9HkKlSMypsScyN1A1QvRxVh7sfYPGTkw%3A1701556583927&ei=Z7FrZd-VOM_H0PEPxdy62AI&ved=0ahUKEwif5f-d6PGCAxXPIzQIHUWuDisQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=urals+oil+price&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiD3VyYWxzIG9pbCBwcmljZTIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyChAAGIAEGIoFGEMyBRAAGIAEMgsQABiABBiKBRiGAzILEAAYgAQYigUYhgNIziJQlAZYjSBwBXgBkAEAmAGtAaABqgqqAQQwLjEwuAEDyAEA-AEBwgIKEAAYRxjWBBiwA8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsAPCAgsQABgWGB4Y8QQYCsICBRAhGKABwgIHEAAYgAQYDcICBhAAGB4YDcICBhAAGBYYHuIDBBgAIEGIBgGQBgo&sclient=gws-wiz-serp Urals oil price]
+'''Russia stuck in the middle-income trap:'''
+''See also:'' [[Middle-income trap]]
+Russia was a high-income country: Russia (2012–14, 2022), but now likely in the middle-income trap. [https://www.intellinews.com/moscow-blog-russia-is-stuck-in-the-middle-income-trap-134557/ MOSCOW BLOG: Russia is stuck in the middle-income trap], 2017, IntelliNews.  See: [https://www.conservapedia.com/User:Conservative/Culture#The_middle-income_trap Middle-income trap] and [https://www.conservapedia.com/User:Conservative/Culture#High-income_economies High-income economies]
+'''Putinomics and the middle-income trap'''
+'''Article:''' [https://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/insights/russias-economy-war-ukraine-and-hopes-post-putin-liberalization Russia’s Economy, War in Ukraine, and Hopes for Post-Putin Liberalization], economist [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Guriev Sergey Guriyev], video at: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lgf0Yp9PfQ&list=PLshhjXvNVYNP1gSQXsVzzK0air6RNBpAK&index=6 Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)"], Sergey Maratovich Guriyev is a Russian economist, who is provost and a professor of economics at the Institut d'études politiques in Paris. From 2016 to 2019, he was the chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
+"Guriev kicked off his keynote address at the Davis Center’s recent 75th anniversary event with a brief economic history of Putin’s Russia, going from growth to “Putinomics” to stagnation:
+Its first 10 years (1999-2008) marked one of the Russian economy’s best decades, “if not the best,” on record; a weak ruble made the country more competitive, unused production capacity created business opportunities, and rising oil prices accounted for about half of Russia’s GDP growth, which averaged 7% a year. The economy was likewise helped along by reforms that stimulated private-sector initiative — a simplified tax system, property rights for land, and modern bank regulation, among others.
+Then came the global economic crisis of 2008-2009, throwing into relief problems that had begun to accumulate earlier. Circa 2003-2004, Putin, rather than pushing through more reforms, had started introducing “Putinomics” — an economy increasingly “controlled by the state and friends of Putin,” Guriev said. Despite an initial recovery after the crisis, it was clear that “the growth model of Putin’s first decade was running out of steam,” in Guriev’s words; growth in 2010-2012 began slowing down, reaching a paltry 1% in 2013.
+Afterward, Russia’s economy entered an era of stagnation, akin to the 1970s and ’80s, with GDP growth in 2013-2019 averaging less than 1% a year. Unlike South Korea — which once had a growth trajectory similar to Russia’s halcyon years — Moscow failed to dismantle its system of crony capitalism. Today, Seoul presides over a competitive, post-industrial, knowledge-based economy, while Russia got stuck in the so-called middle-income trap, Guriev noted."
+'''Alternative view of Putinomics:''' [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5PC_2X3eks&t=1s Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia], Heritage Foundation: "When Vladimir Putin first took power in 1999, he was a little-known figure ruling a country that was reeling from a decade and a half of crisis. In the years since, he has reestablished Russia as a great power. How did he do it? What principles have guided Putin’s economic policies? What patterns can be discerned? In this new analysis of Putin’s Russia, Chris Miller examines its economic policy and the tools Russia’s elite have used to achieve its goals. Miller argues that despite Russia’s corruption, cronyism, and overdependence on oil as an economic driver, Putin’s economic strategy has been surprisingly successful."
+'''Will Russian assets be seized?'''
+*[https://www.google.com/search?q=seize+russian+assets&sca_esv=d635237b949d40bc&biw=1920&bih=927&tbm=nws&ei=HIYWZvipBLyx0PEP2MmjwAs&ved=0ahUKEwj4p-f-0reFAxW8GDQIHdjkCLgQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=seize+russian+assets&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiFHNlaXplIHJ1c3NpYW4gYXNzZXRzSJcgUPgLWNMZcAB4AJABAJgBcKABmgSqAQMwLjW4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgOgAtICwgIFEAAYgATCAgYQABgFGB7CAgYQABgIGB7CAggQABgIGAcYHsICCBAAGAUYBxgemAMAiAYBkgcDMC4zoAe3Cw&sclient=gws-wiz-news Seize Russian assets] - Google search
+*[https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-confiscate-assets-war-browder/32801482.html Interview: 'I Don't See How This Cannot Happen,' Bill Browder Says Of Seizing Russian Assets], Radio Free Europe, 2/2024
+*[https://www.voanews.com/a/momentum-builds-in-efforts-to-seize-russian-assets-for-ukraine-/7488319.html Momentum Builds in Efforts to Seize Russian Assets for Ukraine], Voice of America, 2/2024
+*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=d635237b949d40bc&q=bill+browder&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=invsmbtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi52cjO1reFAxUbMjQIHfLqCOAQ0pQJegQIDBAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Bill Browder]
+'''The limits of the Russian military:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9Vtck34kRs The Limits of Russia's War Machine], Peter Zeihan, 2024
+'''Sergei Guriev (Economist):'''
+*[https://www.google.com/search?q=Sergei+Guriev+russia&sca_esv=53a1e55b74b11b62&biw=1920&bih=927&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ACQVn08Y9Kgx1E4RZNsEhiLAyf6Pk-vXfw%3A1713042338779&ei=ovMaZsGUL9isptQPw7uuqAw&ved=0ahUKEwjB7dmAjMCFAxVYlokEHcOdC8UQ4dUDCA4&uact=5&oq=Sergei+Guriev+russia&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiFFNlcmdlaSBHdXJpZXYgcnVzc2lhMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAFIwBNQ7AhY2xBwAHgAkAEAmAHHAaABxgiqAQMwLji4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgigAokJwgIKEAAYgAQYigUYQ8ICBRAAGIAEmAMAiAYBkgcFMC43LjGgB6we&sclient=gws-wiz-news Sergei Guriev Russia] - Google search
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=sergei+Guriev+russia Sergei Guriev Russia] - YouTube
+'''Alexandra Prokopenko:'''
+Alexandra Prokopenko (Expert on Russian economic and monetary policy and the decision-making. From 2017 until early 2022 Alexandra worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti. She is a graduate of Moscow State University and holds an MA in Sociology from the University of Manchester:
+*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=b88df0ab1e94c6cb&sxsrf=ACQVn0-DpiZmIYDFrQ0PnZuvgXTnsjQg7w:1712461529286&q=Alexandra+Prokopenko&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=invsmbtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi54ZOpmK-FAxXJlokEHcBfBfAQ0pQJegQIDBAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Alexandra Prokopenko - Google News]
+*[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/author/alexandra-prokopenko Alexandra Prokopenko - Moscow Times]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Alexandra+Prokopenko Alexandra Prokopenko - YouTube]
+*[https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/experts/1606 Alexandra Prokopenko - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace]
+*[https://twitter.com/amenka Alexandra Prokopenko - Twitter]
+'''Jeffrey Sonnenfeld'''
+*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=f874127852d0764a&sxsrf=ADLYWILrCE_8oog6Qd0i33QU6H5qpgI-PA:1716717335886&q=Jeffrey+Sonnenfeld&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=nivsmbtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiWv_C3hquGAxUcLdAFHZkbBmIQ0pQJegQIFBAB&biw=1920&bih=927 Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - Google News] - Yale Researcher
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=+Jeffrey+Sonnenfeld&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - YouTube], YouTube
+<big>'''News:'''</big>
+*[https://russiapost.info/ Russia Post]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@csis/videos Center for Strategic & International Studies]
+*[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/ Moscow Times] (con)
+*[https://theins.ru/en/ The Insider]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@SiliconCurtain/videos Silicon Curtain]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@INSIDERUSSIA/videos Inside Russia] (Con)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/search?query=russia Peter Zeihan - Russia] (Con)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@JoeBlogs/search?query=russia Joe Blogs - Russia] (Con)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin+russia&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Stephen Kotkin - Russia] (Con)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin+Putin&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Stephen Kotin - Putin] (Con)
+<br />
+*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=mearsheimer&sp=EgIIBA%253D%253D John Mearsheimer] - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@DrSteveTurleyTV/search?query=Russia Steve Turley] - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq1VBFyhIuI Dmitry Orlov - YouTube] - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Orlov_(writer) Dmitry Orlov] is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)
+<br />
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran] (Pro)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@lenapetrova/videos Lena Petrova]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
+*[https://www.rt.com/ Russia Today] (Pro)
+*[https://sputnikglobe.com/ Sputnik International] (pro)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
+<br />
+<br />
+Blogs:
+*[https://www.russiamatters.org/blog Russia Matters] - Harvard's Kennedy Center for Science and International Affairs
+*[https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blogs/russia-file The Russia File] - Mixed bag
+*[https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/ In Moscow's Shadows]
+Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:
+*[https://archive.ph/RzRRI The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End]
+*[https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Future-of-Russian-Oil-Production-in-the-Short-Medium-and-Long-Term-Insight-57.pdf The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term], [https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/the-future-of-russian-oil-production-in-the-short-medium-and-long-term/ Abstract]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0LzuMUOO0k How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry?] - Video
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Gcl1dO2_0s Russian Oil's Vanishing Act] - video
+*[https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Analysts-Predict-42-Decline-In-Russian-Oil-Production-By-2035.html Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQRcvquXJ2Q Crumbling Infrastructure in the Russian Taiga] - video
+*[https://ogst.ifpenergiesnouvelles.fr/articles/ogst/full_html/2019/01/ogst190118/ogst190118.html A long-term outlook on Russian oil industry facing internal and external challenges]
+Economic problems:
+*[https://theins.ru/en/opinion/igor-lipsitz/267664 The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development]
+'''Russian culture overview:'''
+*Russian culture, traditions and art: [https://www.livescience.com/44154-russian-culture.html#:~:text=Russian%20culture%20has%20a%20long,to%20its%20ornate%20religious%20symbols. Russian Culture: Facts, Customs & Traditions] and [https://www.britannica.com/place/Russia/Cultural-life Russian Culture, Traditions, Arts - Britannica] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_of_Russia culture of Russia] and [https://culturalatlas.sbs.com.au/russian-culture/russian-culture-core-concepts Russian culture - Core Concepts] and [https://www.tota.world/article/1601 Russian Cultural Overview] and [https://www.advantour.com/russia/culture.htm Russian Culture] and [https://www.56thparallel.com/russian-traditions/ A guide to: Russian Traditions, Culture, Customs & Etiquette]
+*[https://greenhearttravel.org/blog/teach-in-a-homestay-russia/5-characteristics-of-russian-culture-i-have-learned-from-my-host-family 5 Characteristics of Russian Culture I Have Learned from My Host Family While Teaching English]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWo-PXvaXLAA35Je934wbfev6BMCGkK61 Contemporary Russia before the war in Ukraine and Russian history] - video playlist
+Other cultural overview:
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcFfQ3-2onM A brief history of Russia with Sergei Guriev]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVooyeCm_YM Plenary 1: Russia, Civilization, and Western Liberalism]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0Zv7MGPpIo Unwrapping The Enigma, Mystery And Riddle: Stephen Kotkin Explains Russia To Andrew Roberts]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@VladVexler/videos Vlad Vexler]
+*[https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-look-at-russian-civilization-power-truth-trust-and-war A LOOK AT RUSSIAN CIVILIZATION: POWER, TRUTH, TRUST, AND WAR]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1C8awu_d6Y The Russian Psyche | Konstantin Kisin]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVJ3Sn-t4yI U.S–Russia Relations, with Stephen Kotkin], August 2022
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Mm3hgc1hhg The Psychology of an Isolated Russia] - Stephen Kotkin
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCusFCg-z_0 Isaiah Berlin Memorial Lecture 2018: Stephen Kotkin] - Sir Isaiah Berlin was a Russian-British social and political theorist, philosopher, and historian of ideas
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylaC0MUleZs 5 More Questions For Stephen Kotkin: Ukraine Edition]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ghn1X7sRFs What is Eurasia? - Stephen Kotkin]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv4knd_Fgug Russia and the West: A Historical Perspective].
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_abuse_of_psychiatry_in_Russia Political abuse of psychiatry in Russia]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWz2deJZppE&t=670s Russian television excerpts - Russian imperialism]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou8mI_ce80s 'The borders of Russia do not end' says Putin at awards ceremony - November 24, 2016] (Russian Geographic Society in Moscow)
+Essay: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future|Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]] and [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0resswOds The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy ]
+Russia and fertility rate and demographics:
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuhgLlxJMkU Demographics of the Orthodox Christain world] by [[Peter Zeihan]]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-pdZSv7G10&t=23s Russia's Demographic Crisis Explained - TLDR News]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXHZ0IH2rOk&t=2s Updates on Russian Demographics]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1aFbmpE1wU (Russia is DONE) Russia's Catastrophic Demographics Collapse is Here.]
+Contemporary Russia:
+*[https://archive.ph/SJz3Y#selection-1225.0-1225.31 Russia is burning up its future], Foreign Affairs 2024 (archive) - War in Ukraine is hiring Russia's long term future
+'''Putin:'''
+*[https://sites.google.com/view/vlad-putin-101/home Vladimir Putin - history and analysis]
+*[https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/putin-the-planner/ Putin the planner]
+*[https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/reviews/1675147/lynch-lourie-putin-his-downfall-and-russias-coming-crash Lynch on Lourie, 'Putin: His Downfall and Russia's Coming Crash']
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEaDRnIFIzY The Putin Paradox: The Missed Opportunity of 1989 & Beyond | Feb. 12, 2020], video (Russia scholar [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Sakwa Richard Sakwa] was featured on [[The Duran]] on March, 11, 2024).[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaC2t-BdB20]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvOINAeRSMQ Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union], video, 2020 (Talks about stagnation in Russia)
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sB8_322qbM President Putin asks outgoing government to remain at work - Richard Sakwa], 2020
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvOINAeRSMQ Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union], 2014 (Achievements and downsides of Putin)
+*[https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-dismissed-us-warnings-days-before-moscow-concert-hall-attack-2024-3 Putin dismissed US warnings about a potential terror incident as 'blackmail' just 3 days before Moscow concert hall attack]
+'''Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?'''
+*[[Essay: Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?|Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?]]
+*[https://pagesix.com/2022/03/06/vladimir-putin-hiding-alina-kabaeva-kids-in-switzerland/ Vladimir Putin hiding lover Alina Kabaeva and their kids in Switzerland], 2022
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhI_sI0XyAA PUTIN & HIS LOVERS: RUSSIAN PARADOX], 2024
+Maps of Russia:
+*[https://www.alamy.com/political-map-of-russia-or-russian-federation-divided-by-types-of-federal-subjects-republics-krays-oblasts-cities-of-federal-significance-autonomous-oblasts-and-autonomous-okrugs-simple-flat-vector-map-with-labels-image396548344.html Political map of Russia, or Russian Federation divided by types of federal subjects - republics, krays, oblasts, cities of federal significance, autonomous oblasts and autonomous okrugs. Simple flat vector map with labels] - Unknown year
+*[https://www.worldometers.info/maps/russia-political-map/ Political map of Russia] - Unknown year
+*[https://www.worldometers.info/maps/russia-map/ Russia map - Physical/geographical] - Unknown year
+'''Ukraine:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEIFwLKlq1Q Kim Iversen: Former NATO Analyst & Top UN Official Says THIS Is The REAL Reason For War In Ukraine]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fTxHIVUjRc The Chris Hedges Report: The truth about Ukraine with Medea Benjamin] - History of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia (And U.S. involvement)
+*[https://baptistnews.com/article/why-its-wrong-to-assume-american-evangelicals-are-siding-with-russia-over-ukraine/ Why it’s wrong to assume American evangelicals are siding with Russia over Ukraine]
+Russians destroying churches and engaging in religious discrimination in Ukraine:
+*[https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2023/february/ukrainian-churches-damaged-russia-war-religious-freedom-irf.html Report: 500 Ukrainian Churches and Religious Sites Damaged by Russian Military], Christianity Today, 2023
+*[https://time.com/6969273/russias-war-against-evangelicals/ Russia’s War Against Evangelicals], Time, 2024
+==== Russia's fertility rate ====
+*[https://russiapost.info/economy/children Can Putin’s Russia Have More Children, Boost Growth and Reduce Poverty All at Once?], Russia Post, 2024
+==== Russian diaspora ====
+"A large Russian diaspora (sometimes including Russian-speaking non-Russians), estimated at 25 million people, has developed all over the world, with notable numbers in the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Canada."[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians] See also: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_diaspora Russian diaspora]
+'''Post Ukraine invasion Russian diaspora:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4tokJQlANE Wartime Emigration and the Russian Diaspora], 2024
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDNhZ-i2Tx4 The New Russian Diaspora: The New Emigres’ Impact on Putin’s Rule], 2023
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3nMWpN222w Ukrainian And Russian Refugees Fleeing War Set Up ''Whites Only'' Bars In Sri Lanka]
+'''Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:'''
+*[https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9 Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's], Business Insider, September 2023
+*[https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-massive-brain-drain-workforce-shortage-ukraine-war-sanctions-2023-6 Russia's economy faces a 'massive brain drain' as over 1 million young workers exit labor force], Markets Insider, 2023
+*[https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/08/19/the-great-russian-brain-drain-en The Great Russian Brain Drain], Novaya Gazeta Europe, 2023
+*[https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-immigration-kazakhstan-technology-c041eb0b7472668087bb94207de2f71d As Russia sees tech brain drain, other nations hope to gain], ''Associated Press'', 2022
+'''Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?'''
+*[https://themedialine.org/by-region/will-jews-continue-to-flee-russia-in-large-numbers/ Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?], 2023 (43,000 Jews fled Russia since the war in Ukraine)
+'''Many high-income people are fleeing Russia:'''
+*[https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2023/06/24/billionaire-oligarchs-jets-flee-moscow-as-putins-regime-plunges-into-crisis/?sh=b79ff372b8d8 Billionaire Oligarchs’ Jets Flee Moscow As Putin’s Regime Plunges Into Crisis], Forbes 2024
+*[https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/14/business/russia-millionaire-exodus/index.html Russia is ‘hemorrhaging’ millionaires], June 2022
+<br />
+[[File:The places that millionaires are leaving 2022 to 2023.png|thumbnail|center|600px|The places that millionares are leaving in 2023-2024. Russian is 4rth on the list.]]
+{{Clear}}
+'''American views of Putin and Russia:'''
+"Americans overwhelmingly rate Putin negatively: 88% say they do not have confidence in the Russian president to do the right thing regarding world affairs, with two-thirds saying they have no confidence in him at all. A similar share lacked confidence in him in 2023 (90%)." - Pew Research, May 8, 2024[https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/05/08/views-of-russia-and-putin/#:~:text=Americans%20overwhelmingly%20rate%20Putin%20negatively,him%20in%202023%20(90%25).]
+"As Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, Americans remain very negative toward Russia: 91% have an unfavorable view of the country, including 62% who say their views are very unfavorable. Just 7% in the U.S. have a favorable view of Russia. This is a similar level of negativity compared with last year’s survey, when 92% of Americans were negative toward Russia." - Pew Research, Pew Research, May 10, 2023[https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/05/10/americans-hold-positive-feelings-toward-nato-and-ukraine-see-russia-as-an-enemy/]
+=== Post Western World notion ===
+*[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-23/post-western-world-disturbing-interview-prof-harry-redner A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner - Part 1]
+*[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-14/post-western-world-disturbing-interview-prof-harry-redner-part-2 A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner - Part 2]
+Decline of nations:
+*[http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2011/11/decline-of-nations.html Decline of nations - Daniel Greenfield's blog]
+=== Map of world by population size ===
+*[https://twitter.com/epkaufm?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author Map of world by population size]
+==== Peter Zeihan's view ====
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos Peter Zeihan] is an American geopolitical analyst and author.
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH2YwhYOZxg Predicting the Future with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan]
+==== The historian Stephen Kotkin on 5 scenarios for Russia's future ====
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaJ9VZorgjM Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview], 5-2-2024
+*[https://archive.ph/182FP#selection-1241.0-1241.26 The Five Futures of Russia] by the historian [https://www.hoover.org/profiles/stephen-kotkin Steven Kotkin]
+==== Will Russia ever have good relations with Europe again? If so, will it happen relatively/somewhat soon or ever? ====
+*[https://archive.ph/182FP#selection-1241.0-1241.26 The Five Futures of Russia] by the historian [https://www.hoover.org/profiles/stephen-kotkin Steven Kotkin]
+===== Con view =====
+*[https://www.gotquestions.org/Russia-end-times.html Does the Bible say anything about Russia in relation to the end times?], Gotquestions.org
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrpzRGWahSk Putin's offensive capability will be gone 'within a decade' | Peter Zeihan]
+*[https://www.rt.com/russia/596646-west-rebuild-relations-scratch-kremlin/ West must rebuild relations with Russia from scratch – Kremlin], Russia Today, 2024
+Cultures tend to change slow.
+The website Cultural Front notes:
+{{Cquote|In chapter 6 of ''Outliers'', [[Malcolm Gladwell]] highlights cultural legacies. He opens with disturbing descriptions of how longstanding cultural patterns and beliefs influenced violent conflicts among generations of families in Kentucky during the 19th century.
+The compelling research findings concerning long-term and deeply held values led Gladwell to the conclusion that cultural legacies are powerful forces. They have deep roots and long lives. They persist, generation after generation, virtually intact, even as the economic and social demographic conditions that spawned them have vanished, and they play such a role in directing attitudes and behavior that we cannot make sense of our world without them. He goes on to note the possibilities of “taking cultural legacies seriously” in order to learn “why people succeed and how to make people better.”<ref>[http://www.culturalfront.org/2013/10/outliers-cultural-legacies.html Outliers & Cultural Legacies]</ref>}}
+===== Pro-view =====
+*[https://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/insights/russias-economy-war-ukraine-and-hopes-post-putin-liberalization Russia’s Economy, War in Ukraine, and Hopes for Post-Putin Liberalization], 2023
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lgf0Yp9PfQ&list=PLshhjXvNVYNP1gSQXsVzzK0air6RNBpAK&index=7 Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)"], 2023
+*[https://www.cidob.org/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/notes_internacionals/n1_213/will_russia_return_to_europe Will Russia Return to Europe?], 2019
+== International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts ==
+'''Geopolitics and Empire'''
+Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.):
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticsEmpire/videos Geopolitics & Empire]
+*[https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-empire/id1003465597 Geopolitics and Empire] - Apple Podcast
+*[https://soundcloud.com/geopoliticsandempire?_pxhc=1612166400404 Geopolitics and Empire] - Soundcloud
+'''Burning archive:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@theburningarchive/videos The Burning Archive] (Former government worker who has studied world history)
+'''Popular International relations and geopolitics:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos Zeihan on Geopolitics] - Pro-Western
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticalFuturesGPF/videos Geopolitical Futures] - George Friedman
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@CaspianReport/videos Caspian Report], Azerbaijan
+*[https://mearsheimer.substack.com/ John Mearsheimer's substack]
+'''Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)'''
+*[https://twitter.com/nikola_mikovic?lang=en Nikola Mikovic - Twitter]
+*[https://muckrack.com/nikola-mikovic/articles Nikola Mikovic] - Muckrack
+*[https://www.diplomaticourier.com/people/nikola-mikovic Nikola Mikovic] - Diplomaticourier.com
+*[https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/contributors/articles/nikola-mikovic Nikola Mikovic] - Lowy Institute
+*[https://www.arabnews.com/authors/nikola-mikovic Nikola Mikovic] - Arab News
+*[https://www.americanpurpose.com/authors/nikola-mikovic/ Nikola Mikovic], American Purpose
+'''Pro-Western YouTube channels:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@foreignaffairs/videos Foreign Affairs]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@TheEconomist/videos The Economist]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos Peter Zeihan]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@Network2020/videos Network 20/20]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@RANENetwork/videos RANE] (Related to Stratfor)
+*[https://worldview.stratfor.com/ Stratfor website]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@StratNewsGlobal/videos StratNewsGlobal]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticalFuturesGPF/videos Geopolitical Futures]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@CentreforGeopolitics/videos Centre for Geopolitics] - UK
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@gefirachannel9054/videos Gefira Channel] - Netherlands
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@FPRI/videos Foreign Policy Research Institute]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticsDaily247/videos Geopolitics Daily] - Greece, Very Pro-Western
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@FPA1918/videos Foreign Policy Association]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@Geo-Politico/videos Geopolitico] - Run by Infographics channel guy
+'''Pro-Western podcasts:'''
+*[https://www.csis.org/podcasts/truth-matter The Truth of the Matter] - Center for Strategic and International Studies
+*[https://www.brookings.edu/podcasts/ Brookings Institution Podcast] (Current affairs, tech news, economic news and Africa)
+*[https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/mark-leonards-world-in-30-minutes/id340460705 The World in 30 Minutes] -  European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
+*[https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ecfr-on-air/id1200798765  ECFR on Air]
+*[https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/economist-podcasts/id151230264 Economist Podcast]
+*[https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/first-person/ First Person] - Foreign Policy Podcast]
+'''India:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@amitsengupta01/videos Amit Sengupta]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@DEFTALKSbyAadi/videos DEF - TALKS by Aadi] - India focused
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@WorldAffairsUnacademy/videos World Affairs]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@WION/videos WION]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@CRUXnews/videos Crux]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@studyiqofficial/videos Study IQ]
+'''Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western or anti-Western'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@GDiesen1/videos Glen Diesen]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris/videos Alexander Mercouris]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@AlexChristoforou/videos Alex Christoforou]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies/videos Neutrality Studies]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/@TheNewAtlas/videos The New Atlas]
+== International relations websites - Pro-Western ==
+*[https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ Foreign Affairs]
+*[https://thediplomat.com/ The Diplomat] - Asia Pacific - Affiliated with the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Strategic_and_International_Studies Center for Strategic and International Studies]
+*[https://foreignpolicy.com/ Foreign Policy] (Founded by [[Samuel Huntington]], but endorsed [[Hillary Clinton]])
+*[https://www.fpri.org/ Foreign Policy Research Institute]
+== Israel ==
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEoVzKyD_IM Here’s THE TRUTH About the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (A Comprehensive History)] by Ben Shapiro
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fo77sTGpngQ Why Evangelical Christians Love Israel | VICE on HBO]
+*[https://www.JNS.org JNS] <small>(BTW, JNS is also critical on ADL's Greenblatt woke stuff)</small>, [https://www.Israelnationalnews.com INN], and at times center leaning [https://www.i24news.tv I24], or left leaning - [https://www.Ynetnews.com Ynet] or [https://www.timesofisrael.com TOI]. [https://www.israelhayom.com/ ILH] is center leaning. Note. ''JPost'' is usually center leaning when it states it's by "Jerusalem Post Staff," but it often posts pure ''Reuters'' stuff.
+=== Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdQ2KKj9Gec Jonathan Cahn: Seeing God's Guiding Hand Over Israel]
+Modern Israel fulfills biblical prophecy:
+Prophecies about the land of Israel fulfilled in our lifetime: [https://digitalcommons.liberty.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1023&context=pretrib_arch Is Modern Israel Fulfilling Prophecy?] and [https://www.chosenpeople.com/is-the-modern-state-of-israel-2/ Is the modern state of Israel the fullfillment of prophecy] and [https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/nov/30/unveiling-mysteries-of-israel-four-biblical-prophe/ Unveiling the mysteries of Israel: Four biblical prophecies being fulfilled right now].
+====  Miracles ====
+===== Six Day War =====
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wMIq6X4zi4 GOD'S HAND IN THE SIX DAY WAR]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8i3uIz7hoYs Six Days of Miracles]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR-8pmLBStA Did God Help Israel During The Six Day War?]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR-8pmLBStA Fmr Israeli Commander: God Protected us in Battle]
+== USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism ==
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change United States involvement in regime change]
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_United_States_military_operations Timeline of United States military operations]
+'''Trends:'''
+Pointless and costly wars such as the [[Iraq War]] and [[War in Afghanistan]] are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general [[Sun Tzu]] wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare."  Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more [[isolationism|isolationist]] sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: [[Essay: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?|Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?]]). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing.  The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful [[diplomacy]]. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: [[Just War Theory]]).
+Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ0IUCMpgEE Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector]).
+== NATO ==
+*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home NATO]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEoY7OT3xwE Why NATO may have to stop a Russian invasion - without the US], Daily Mail, 2023
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO%E2%80%93Russia_relations#:~:text=In%201991%2C%20as%20the%20Soviet,aim%20was%20to%20join%20NATO. NATO–Russia relations]
+*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home NATO and Russia]
+=== Expansion of NATO ===
+'''Pro-NATO expansion:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwe8l8to8pA Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion] - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion
+*"But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68359252]
+Historian Mary E. Sarotte on issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cTFk6MNUHQ&t=2576s Historian Mary E. Sarotte argues that there was no promised for NATO not to expand eastward]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TzhcIQs2Uo Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate], Hoover Institution
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lG3SeHuFke0 Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate], Washington History Seminar
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_4nAyW6crg MARY ELISE SAROTTE - Not One Inch: Nato's Eastward Expansion]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHj0K9PofCw Lecture of Mary Sarotte «Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqaHW3BRVBI Mary Sarotte, "Not One Inch"]
+*''Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate'' by Mary E. Sarotte. ‎Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)
+'''Middle of the road on NATO expansion:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVt-WXTLIZM Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO
+'''Anti-NATO expansion:'''
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mciLyG9iexE Stephen F. Cohen: NATO expansion and Russia], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFGEhtnUzJQ Gravitas Ukraine Direct: Did NATO betray Russia?]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io0QGDhbLvw Why NATO is a threat to Putin | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on1RrmspFIQ War in Ukraine is the fault of US and NATO | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwe8l8to8pA Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer] - Anti-NATO expansion
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xzeZ6nzECs Putin Tells Oliver Stone about his NATO Concerns]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRzhUO-Pz40 Part 1: Oliver Stone Interviews Putin on U.S.-Russia Relations, 2016 Election, Snowden & NATO]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x8zS1jT9JM Part 2: Oliver Stone Interviews Putin on U.S.-Russia Relations, 2016 Election, Snowden & NATO]
+=== NATO's soft underbellys ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAj6TjqK3Sk Russian MP’s Big Claim: Putin Planning to Attack NATO's Underbelly? | Vantage with Palki Sharma]
+*[https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/05/nato-must-contest-russian-moves-its-southern-underbelly/367335/ NATO Must Contest Russian Moves in Its Southern Underbelly]
+== China and Christianity ==
+*[https://www.businessinsider.com.au/new-religious-breakdown-in-china-14-2015-8 This fascinating map shows the new religious breakdown in China]
+== What would a post-communist China look like? ==
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV7PuqlMOzI What Comes After the Communist Party in China?]
+== World map ==
+*[https://geology.com/world/world-map.shtml World Map]
+=== World map by population ===
+*[https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-cartogram World map by population], 2018
+== Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future ==
+=== John Mearsheimer's view ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aNMOEQ0248 The 2022 Holberg Debate w/ John Mearsheimer and Carl Bildt: Ukraine, Russia, China and the West]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBiV1h7Dm5E John Mearsheimer: The West is playing Russian roulette]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcYGhBvyVoE Russians and NATO both feel that they cannot lose] - War could drag on at a lower level for years and this is a dangerous situation.
+==== Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine ====
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huDriv7IAa0 Does the US still have the Capacity for Global Dominance? | Prof. John Mearsheimer], 2024,  [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqQBVCfcMoQ Ukraine, Taiwan and The True Cause of War | John Mearsheimer], 2024. Mearsheimer says the war in Ukraine revealed shortcomings of US Defense policies. Mearsheimer believes USA will fix its industrial capacity problems and upgrade its drone capabilities so it can better fight a potential war with China. Mearsheimer says that the USA's unpreparedness is a vestigage of the former unipolar world and that major power politics has returned. [[Essay: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?|US populace embracing isolationism more in terms of young people, etc.]], but Mearsheimer argues that Washington/military industrial complex ignores what public wants.
+Mearsheimer argues that liberalism pulls a society apart due to disagreement on first principles and that is why it preaches tolerance, but nationalism is a glue that helps hold a society together.[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huDriv7IAa0]. Mearsheimer says liberals don't like realist school of politics because it goes against the grain of idealism and they like to pretend that liberal democracies never engage in [[realpolitik]] type behavior.[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huDriv7IAa0]
+Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems.
+=== Peter Zeihan's view ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRT7P-VKM0k The Old World Order Is About To Collapse - Peter Zeihan] - 2022
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVyf7xhzgTs Peter Zeihan Warns End Of Great Powers Will Bring Famine And Destruction For Smaller Nations] -2022
+=== Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio] -2022 (Ray Dahlio has some good ideas, but he is inconsistent when it comes to China[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1iv0q_SW3E])
+== Changing civilizational world order ==
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3PXFA1xaCk Civilizational World Order w/Dr. Steve Turley] - Listen to this
+== Globalization of trade ==
+*[https://www.cato.org/publications/globalization-isnt-going-anywhere Globalization of Trade Isn’t Going Anywhere. World trade in goods may have plateaued but did so at historically high levels], Meanwhile, other indicia of globalization—trade in services, digital trade, cross‐border investment and migration, and cultural exchange—continue to increase. CATO, 2023
+== Books ==
+*''[https://www.amazon.com/Guns-Germs-Steel-Fates-Societies/dp/0393061310/ref=sr_1_1?crid=HULJ4CBFYE78&keywords=guns+germs+and+steel+by+jared+diamond+hardcover&qid=1704377922&s=books&sprefix=guns+%2Cstripbooks%2C92&sr=1-1 Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies]'' by  Jared Diamond Ph.D.
+*''[https://www.amazon.com/End-World-Just-Beginning-Globalization/dp/B09CS8FRRD/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?crid=14MMYVFQO4WE0&keywords=peter+zeihan&qid=1704378502&s=books&sprefix=peter+zeihan+%2Cstripbooks%2C90&sr=1-1-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9hdGY&psc=1 The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization]'' by Peter Zeihan
+== Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda ==
+* [https://sites.google.com/view/peoplewhofallforpropaganda/home Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda]
+== Military, wars and mass murder ==
+[[File:WWII collage.JPG|thumbnail|right|300px|[[WWII]] photo montage]]
+"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to  1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History ([[Francis Fukuyama|Fukuyama]]) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor [[Eric Kaufmann]], Twitter/X.[https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1744338524994748831], See: [https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace War and Peace].
+=== How long do wars last? ===
+Wars start out as wars of maneuver. If a war a war of maneuver doesn't achieve victory in 6 months, then it most cases it turns into a war of attrition (Wars of attrition are more common than insurgencies after a war).[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6F7yqIMRdI]
+Wars are ended by removing an enemies will to fight and/or ability to fight (Productive capacity)[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6F7yqIMRdI]
+*"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - [[Sun Tzu]]
+*"What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations." - Sun Tzu
+*"There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu
+'''How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics:'''
+[[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a [[bipartisan]], nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.
+The Center for Strategic and International Studies article ''How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine''
+{{Cquote|Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>}}
+[[File:Georgetown 2.jpg|thumbnail|center|300px|[[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>]]
+{{Clear}}
+=== Just war vs. realist view of war ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=takl4fei1pQ War and International Politics ], John Mearsheimer (He discusses realist view of war vs. Just War doctrine of war)
+=== Winning the peace vs. winning a war ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wdo5VRuZd5k How Not to Win the War, but the Peace - Stephen Kotkin]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9ICLTWy-xg Stephen Kotkin: Winning the peace vs. winning a war] - short version
+=== Military ===
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxrfxN99snM US Army fails to meet annual recruitment target, again]
+*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tscfH9EAIkU US Military's Biggest Recruiting Crisis Is Here]
+=== Wars and warlike natures ===
+'''Studies:'''
+*[https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/democracies-more-prone-start-wars-except-when-theyre-not-82879 Democracies More Prone to Start Wars – Except When They're Not]
+==== Democratic peace theory and related matters ====
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory Democratic peace theory]
+=== Mass murder  ===
+*[[Atheism and Mass Murder|Atheism and mass murder]]
+*[https://www.conservapedia.com/Atheism_and_Mass_Murder#Explanatory_links_between_atheism_and_mass_murder Godless leftists with utopian visons are more mass murder prone than godless libertarians]
+=== Right-wing death squads vs. Left-wing murderous regimes ===
+*[https://voxday.net/2023/11/09/do-they-want-right-wing-death-squads/ Do they want right-wing death squads]
+=== Military concepts ===
+*[[Sun Tzu]]
+*[[Sun Tzu quotes]]
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_warfare Political warfare]
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth-generation_warfare Fifth-generation warfare]
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymmetric_warfare Asymmetric warfare]
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irregular_warfare Irregular warfare]
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawfare Lawfare]
+*[[Carl von Clausewitz]]
+*[[List of military strategies and concepts]]
+*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth-generation_warfare Fourth generation warfare]
+=== Military competence and incompetence ===
+==== Military competence ====
+*Deliberate Discomfort: How U.S. Special Operations Forces Overcome Fear and Dare to Win by Getting Comfortable Being Uncomfortable by Jason B.A. Van Camp and Andy Symonds. Ballast Books (February 18, 2020)
+==== Military incompetence ====
+*On the Psychology of Military Incompetence by Norman F Dixon. Basic Books; Illustrated edition (May 31, 2016)
+*Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)
+== Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences ==
+*[https://washingtondc.jhu.edu/news/do-sanctions-actually-work-experts-evaluate-the-efficacy-of-this-widely-used-foreign-policy-tool/ DO SANCTIONS ACTUALLY WORK? EXPERTS EVALUATE THE EFFICACY OF THIS WIDELY USED FOREIGN POLICY TOOL] (“What we found is that it works in ways that we don’t want it to work. And it doesn’t work in the ways that we want it to work,” said Middle East expert Vali Nasr, one of the book’s authors.)
+== International agreements ==
+==== International agreements often fail to achieve their intended results ====
+While international agreements certainly have their place and peace/peacemaking are always a good thing to pursue, research indicates that most international agreements fail to achieve their aims ([https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2122854119 International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects], PNAS, August 1, 2022, 119 (32) e2122854119 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2122854119). Given men's frequent cases of poor thinking/planning and the sinfulness of human nature, this is not entirely surprising.
+Also, as far as the Russian/Ukrainian peace negotiations, agreements are only as good as the trustworthiness of the people signing them. And unfortunately, Russia/Putin/Biden Administration are all corrupt and shown [https://www.conservapedia.com/Essay:_The_SPECIFIC_MONTH_OF_APRIL_2022_was_not_a_pivotal_point_in_politics_that_will_affect_politics_for_30_years#Analysis HERE as can be seen in points #1, #2 and #3].
+And when I look at the Minsk Agreements, former agreements and promises mentioned below, I see Russia/Ukraine/West breaking agreements/promises.  Also, as far as the Minsk Agreements, as can be seen below, Russia appears to be the biggest violaters of the Minsk Agreements, with Ukraine breaking the agreements also.
+'''Russia, West, Ukraine and the West all acting badly in terms of Minsk Agreements, agreements and promises:'''
+Russia acting badly:
+*[https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russia-not-ukraine-is-serial-violator-of-ceasefire-agreement/ Both Russia and Ukraine Were Violaters of Minks Agreements, but Russia was a bigger violater], 2017
+*[https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4443781-history-shows-that-no-ceasefire-or-treaty-with-russia-can-be-trusted/ History shows that no ceasefire or treaty with Russia can be trusted], The Hill, 2024
+TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 2016, U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations: "Russia has acted contrary to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Incidents at Sea Agreement. Russia has altered the human rights landscape within its own country, decreasing democracy and begging questions about the future of governance, not just in Moscow, but across the Federation. Moreover, Russia has joined the civil war in Syria and begun militarizing the Arctic."<ref>[https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-114shrg28077/html/CHRG-114shrg28077.htm#:~:text=While%20Russia%20is%20currently%20in,between%20500%20and%205%2C500%20kilometers. RUSSIAN VIOLATIONS OF BORDERS, TREATIES, AND HUMAN RIGHTS]</ref>
+West and Ukraine acting badly:
+*[https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-disappointed-merkels-words-minsk-140859136.html Merkel admits that West were not sincere about Minsk Agreements], Yahoo News, 2022
+*[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/15/west-promises-developing-countries-summit-paris-climate-vaccines-budgets The West has broken its promises to developing countries – and we’re all paying the price], The Guardian, 2023
+== Notes ==
+{{Reflist}}

Difference between revisions of "User:Conservative/International relations/geopolitics/news"

Revision as of 14:49, June 12, 2024

Contents

World economics and trends

GNP by country

2023

2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics

World News

Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history

Burning Archive

Stephen Kotkin lectures

World Politics Review

Emmanuel Todd

The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan

Current state of the world in terms of polarity and international relations

Polarity (International relations)

Western World

USA

Canada

Europe

India

China

US-China relations

Donald Trump and his China policy

China likely stuck in middle-income trap

China and debt

Chinese export strategy will not work this time

Biden hits China with steel tariffs

US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China

Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60%

US tariffs against China may spark China-EU Trade War

Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back

China and a potential balance sheet recession

Anti-China hawks

Pro-China doves

USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet

Taiwan

Japan

Russia

Russia's fertility rate

Russian diaspora

Post Western World notion

Map of world by population size

Peter Zeihan's view

The historian Stephen Kotkin on 5 scenarios for Russia's future

Will Russia ever have good relations with Europe again? If so, will it happen relatively/somewhat soon or ever?

Con view

Pro-view

International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts

International relations websites - Pro-Western

Israel

Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles

Miracles

Six Day War

USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism

NATO

Expansion of NATO

NATO's soft underbellys

China and Christianity

What would a post-communist China look like?

World map

World map by population

Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future

John Mearsheimer's view

Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine

Peter Zeihan's view

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

Changing civilizational world order

Globalization of trade

Books

Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda

Military, wars and mass murder

How long do wars last?

Just war vs. realist view of war

Winning the peace vs. winning a war

Military

Wars and warlike natures

Democratic peace theory and related matters

Mass murder