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→Strategic Summary Late October 2026
===Strategic Summary Late October 2026===
===Strategic Summary Late October - Early November 2026===
The [[Persian Gulf]] is Closed on [[Tehran]]’s Terms: With three more tankers burning and US unmanned reconnaissance systematically downed, [[Western]] [[naval]] presence has failed to reopen the [[Strait of Hormuz]] to hostile commerce.
The [[Persian Gulf]] is Closed on [[Tehran]]’s Terms: With three more tankers burning and US unmanned reconnaissance systematically downed, [[Western]] [[naval]] presence has failed to reopen the [[Strait of Hormuz]] to hostile commerce.
The most dangerous shift would occur in how countries view [[nuclear weapon]]s. [[Historical]]ly, [[deterrence]] works on the premise that the cost of attacking a country is too high. If Iran, a country on the threshold of nuclear development, is attacked in a conventional and tactical manner, the [[geopolitical]] message would first and foremost be one of encouragement to [[proliferate]].
The most dangerous shift would occur in how countries view [[nuclear weapon]]s. [[Historical]]ly, [[deterrence]] works on the premise that the cost of attacking a country is too high. If Iran, a country on the threshold of nuclear development, is attacked in a conventional and tactical manner, the [[geopolitical]] message would first and foremost be one of encouragement to [[proliferate]].
'''[[Joe Kent]]: [[America]] is no longer providing [[security guarantee]]s, that we're no longer capable of projecting power in the way that we once were. I think, you know, as dumb as the [[Iraq war]] was, [[Saddam Hussein]] had one of the bigger militaries at the time, especially in '91 when we went into [[Kuwait]] and expelled Saddam from there, we kept [[economic sanctions|sanctions]] on, we choked off [[Iraq]], and then in ' 03, we ran through the [[Iraq]]i [[army]] like a hot knife through butter and we just showed how muscular and powerful we were. We got humiliated because we didn't understand, you know, the [[insurgency]] factor. We didn't learn any of our lessons from [[Vietnam war|Vietnam]]. But we still had a lot of [[military]] might. We could still project power. We could still dominate the [[Persian Gulf]] with our [[aircraft carrier]]s. We dominated the skies. Like we never even thought other than like, some rockets and mortars here and there. We never thought about having to be threatened from the skies.
"But the world has changed and we're no longer going to be the guarantors of [[security]] for the entire [[Persian Gulf|Gulf]].
"I do think too, that we've shown a lot of our weakness, and that is going to affect the [[Petrodollar]], and that's pretty dangerous. So I think we should be trying to mitigate that as much as we possibly can. We've already basically shown the [[GCC|Gulf countries]] that we can't keep our word. Our part of the bargain was, 'you guys use the [[Petrodollar]], you cut us in on all the transactions by using the [[dollar]] that you're making with the [[oil]], and we'll provide you [[security guarantee]]s. Well, our security guarantees bought them a bunch of [[ballistic missile]]s and [[Shahid]] [[drone]]s that took out a lot of their [[infrastructure]].
"So that part's changing. But also like the ability, I think, of like any kind of [[Great Power]] to go and to conquer another country just with [[Air defense|ballistic missiles and drone defense]]. That's proven that it's almost a [[zero-sum]] game. And [[Russia]], to a certain extent, is running into this in [[Ukraine]]. Now, obviously, we're backing the [[Ukrainian]]s and accelerating that [[war]], and that's dangerous as well. But in terms of the old way that we thought where, like one of the [[Great Power]]s could just go smack around another country and accomplish whatever their objectives were. That has changed. Overall, in terms of more moving towards a [[planet]] that actually has less conflict, that's a good thing. Countries are going to see they really have a limited ability to go in and enforce their will in other countries. We do need to rely on [[diplomacy]] on mutually beneficial [[trade]] and [[commerce]] as opposed to the big country can go smack around the little country." [https://youtu.be/KrDogTjN9eQ?t=1526]
===Europe===
===Europe===
*[[Black Mountain Analysis]]: [https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/the-geopolitical-trap-structural The Geopolitical Trap: Structural Incentives Prolonging the War in Ukraine [i] ''The war in Ukraine that will not stop...''
*[[Black Mountain Analysis]]: [https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/the-geopolitical-trap-structural The Geopolitical Trap: Structural Incentives Prolonging the War in Ukraine [i] ''The war in Ukraine that will not stop...''