Difference between revisions of "Essay: Stavridis: Getting Pummeled in War Is a 200-Year Russian Tradition"

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-[[File:Flag of Russia.png|right|thumbnail|275px|Flag of Russia ]]
-Throughout its long history, from its formation as the medieval state Kievan Rus' in the 9th century to the Russian Federation as we know it today, Russia has seen some bitter military defeats. Some of these have had devastating consequences, resulting, for example, in the loss of large swathes of territory, and even threatening the country's very existence. So, what are Russia's greatest military thrashings?" (Source: [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russias-greatest-military-defeats/ss-AAXUJd9 Russia's greatest military defeats]).
-The article ''Getting Pummeled in War Is a 200-Year Russian Tradition'', indicates:
-{{Cquote|Despite President [[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian|Vladimir Putin]]’s bluster yesterday that “it is impossible to defeat Russia on the battlefield,” there’s no question the last twelve months have been  terrible for his nation. But frankly, Russia has had not just a disastrous year, but a couple of bad centuries.
-Just over 200 years ago, [[Napoleon]] invaded Russia, eventually occupying and burning Moscow before the Russian army, aided by a brutal winter, was able to eject the French Grande Armee at a cost of more than half a million casualties on both sides. In the middle of the 19th century, Russia lost the [[Crimean War]] against the combined forces of the UK, France and the Ottoman Empire, crippling the Imperial Russian Army (500,000 casualties in a two-year war), losing the Crimean Peninsula, and forfeiting the right to base warships in the Black Sea.
-The Russian Navy was essentially destroyed by [[Japan]] in the [[Russo-Japanese War]] of 1904-1905, suffering a humiliating loss of eight battleships in the lopsided Battle of Tsushima while inflicting virtually no damage to the Japanese Imperial Fleet. A dozen years later, as the Russian empire imploded after the Bolshevik revolution, Western armies invaded to pick up the spoils. All that occurred before [[Germany]] invaded and destroyed much of the Russian army in the early days of [[World War II]], notably at the battle of [[Stalingrad]], where Russia suffered close to a million casualties in a year of fighting, albeit ultimately achieving victory.
-A decade ago, as the supreme allied commander of the [[North Atlantic Treaty Organization]], I would meet occasionally with my counterpart in Russia, General Nikolai Makarov (not to be confused with General Vladimir Makarov, a failed Russian commander in Ukraine who committed suicide in Moscow this month). Makarov would remind me of those centuries of war and humiliation. “Too much history,” he once said. Russians have a lot of scar tissue from the last 200 years.<ref>[https://archive.md/ya4oV#selection-3471.0-3471.55 Getting Pummeled in War Is a 200-Year Russian Tradition] by James Stavridis, Bloomberg News, February 23, 2023</ref>}}
-Yaro Kurfyust, Ministry of Affairs of the [[Czech Republic]] wrote:
-{{Cquote|[[Soviet]] and Russian propaganda gave us a sense of the "invincibility" of Russian weapons and the unsurpassed strength of this geographically large and valuable Asian country. A Czechoslovak socialist upbringing instilled in us respect for the victorious Soviet army, which it mistakenly and purposefully identified with the Russians...
-We used a distorted image of victory in World War II - in cinema, mass culture and education.
-The remnants of the [[Socialism|socialist]] educational program have been preserved and teaching in schools still shows the need for an objective study of modern history.
-While not diminishing the number of casualties in the Second World War on the Russian side, we must not forget that the victory was also largely based on the casualties of Ukrainians, Belarusians, and a long list of other nations. And it was not only the victory of the [[Soviet Union]], but also the victory of the [[Allies]], including their own casualties.
-We also cannot forget the violent and imperial nature of [[Moscow]]'s policy during the Soviet campaign, which resulted in the creation of a colonial system of socialist satellites, which Moscow referred to as the "peace camp."
-...The Russian Empire fought a series of conflicts with the west, in what is now Ukraine and Belarus. Before the reign of [[Peter the Great]], they fought quite unsuccessfully against the Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Poles, and the Swedes. According to statistics compiled by Vladimir Solovyov, a great Russian historian of the late nineteenth century, Russia lost more than 70% of the 50 wars in the north and west from the thirteenth to the fifteenth century.
-With varying degrees of success, it tried to conquer Ukraine, consolidate its position on the Black Sea coast and penetrate the Persian southern coast of the Caspian Sea. After clashes with the Turks and Persians, the Russians were forced to retreat. Later, Catherine the Great succeeded on these fronts. Her aggressive policy was detrimental to Ukrainian and Polish statehood, as well as to the peoples of Crimea.
-At the beginning of the XIX century, the campaign of Russian Emperor Paul I in [[India]] ended in complete failure, and in a few decades, Russia was defeated in the Crimean War (1853-1856). At that time, European powers were firmly united against Russia. Thanks to the unity of Europeans and the plight of Russia after the war, it was defeated in the Berlin Congress of 1878.
-After these defeats, the Russian leadership was forced to turn away from Europe and begin expansion into Asia.
-By the end of the 19th century, Russia already controlled the Pacific coast, so it turned its attention to the Korean Peninsula and Manchuria. Russia's subsequent defeat in the Russo-Japanese War was one of the causes of the end of the Russian Empire.
-Russia played a significant role in inciting the First World War. The military leaders in Russia claimed the conflict would lead to control over the Black Sea Straits and Constantinople - today's Istanbul, then in the eyes of the Russians - "the second Rome".
-After numerous military setbacks, the Russian Empire completely collapsed from within. The Brest- Litovsk peace, concluded as a result of negotiations between the new Bolshevik government and the German Empire, briefly resulted in a long-awaited statehood for Ukrainians and Belarusians.
-Attempts by the [[Bolsheviks]] to spread the communist revolution around the globe were unsuccessful...
-The collapse of the colonial system and Soviet Russia's false confidence led to territorial greed. Afghanistan fell victim to it in 1979. The Russian invasion of Afghanistan, like the Russo-Japanese War, was a prelude to the end of the empire. Then the Soviet Union disintegrated, becoming one of the great geopolitical blessings of the bloody twentieth century...
-In 1996, Russia launched a war against [[Chechnya]]. However, the bloodshed in little Chechnya in the North Caucasus proved fatal to the Russian army. In 1999, Russia launched a second Chechen war, choosing a different tactic. Chechnya was ruthlessly defeated, and Moscow appointed a brutal puppet dictator at the head of a "useful republic" within the Russian Federation.
-Even Russia's aggression against [[Republic of Georgia|Georgia]] in 2008 cannot be called a pure victory.
-The Russian forces were uncoordinated, and the army movement did not meet modern standards of warfare. Even the Russian leadership was so disappointed by the inefficiency of its armed forces that they initiated a large-scale reform of the army.<ref>[Russia used to lose wars, says history. Don't buy the opposite myth, and don't write off Ukraine!] by Yaro Kurfyust, Ministry of Affairs of the Czech Republic, European Pravda, 2022</ref>}}
-'''Wars Russia lost, Russian military defeats and other defeats:'''
-*[https://247wallst.com/special-report/2023/08/05/19-wars-russia-has-lost-from-ivan-the-terrible-to-vladimir-putin/ 19 Russian Wars Ending in Defeat, From Ivan the Terrible to Vladimir Putin]
-*[https://listverse.com/2014/02/02/10-epic-russian-military-disasters/ 10 Epic Russian Military Disasters]
-*[https://www.jpost.com/international/article-700969 A history of Russia's spectacular defeats]
-*[https://www.rbth.com/history/326680-5-worst-russians-defeats 5 worst military defeats in Russian history]
-*[https://markgelbart.wordpress.com/2022/03/02/list-of-wars-russia-lost-over-the-past-150-years/ List of Wars Russia Lost over the Past 150 Years]
-'''War in Ukraine:'''
-Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse|Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]]). In a [[pyrrhic victory]] a country can "win" a war, but still get pummeled.
-*[[Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes|How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes]]
-'''Other articles on Russia:'''
-*[[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]
-*[[User:Conservative's essays#Russia|Other articles on Russia]]
-== How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes ==
-''See also:'' [[Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes|How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes]]
-[[File:Flag of Ukraine.png|thumbnail|right|275px|The flag of Ukraine.]]
-[[John Joseph Mearsheimer]], is an American political scientist and [[international relations]] scholar, who belongs to the [[realist school of international relations]] and teaches at the [[University of Chicago]].
-Mearsheimer predicted the [[war]] in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wi_0oiZ7vU Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War])
-Although I would like the war in Ukraine to end soon, I suspect that Professor [[John Joseph Mearsheimer]] is correct and that the war will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine]). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time.
-Also, any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state. In addition, I predict that American/NATO taxpayers will continue to pay for this boondoggle with their tax money for several more years.
-On August 23, 2023, ''Axios'' reported: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."<ref>[https://www.axios.com/2023/08/23/white-house-ukraine-war-aid-congress-support White House tells Ukraine, allies that Congress will back more war aid], Axios, 2023</ref>
-While I would love for the [[Republican Party|Republicans]] to honor the wishes of its Republican base and cut aid to Ukraine and would like to be pleasantly surprised if they do, Professor Mearsheimer has correctly pointed out several times that the Republican Party doesn't listen to its base when it comes to foreign wars and the elites that are warhawks usually get their way.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7EOKBF1nbQ Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer | SpectatorTV]</ref> The military/industrial complex and its lobbyists usually prevail despite the wishes of the American public.  Furthermore, for various reasons, such as Donald Trump arming the Ukrainians before the war in Ukraine (Stinger missiles, etc.), Meaersheimer is highly skeptical that if [[Donald Trump]] were to win the presidency in 2024 that he would end the war quickly (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7EOKBF1nbQ Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer]). I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.
-If Donald Trump (or some other Republican) is elected in 2024, maybe Donald Trump (or that Republican) will surprise me and strike a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as early as 2024 or 2025 (Long-shot events do sometimes happen as evidenced by anyone who has ever seen a black swan). But even if such a thing were accomplished, things it will be difficult to maintain and/or have flare up to some degree afterward.
-Although I can potentially see the war in Ukraine ending in 2025 if Trump or another Republican is elected (Ukraine is not of vital national interest of the USA), it seems unlikely given the animosity between Russia/Ukraine now and other factors mentioned in the video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine].
-Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). Once again, I agree with him on this point. He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZ_DZSHHRMc Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18]</ref> I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.
-Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.
-=== How long do post WWII wars last? Some relevant statistics. ===
-[[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a [[bipartisan]], nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.
-The Center for Strategic and International Studies article ''How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine''
-{{Cquote|Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>}}
-[[File:Georgetown 2.jpg|thumbnail|center|300px|[[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>]]
-{{Clear}}
-=== Russian defector reveals that a 'majority' of people inside the Kremlin are unhappy with the war in Ukraine ===
-''See also:'' [[Essay: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?|Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?]]
-*[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-26/russia-defector-reveals-many-kremlin-members-unhappy-war-730/102526452 Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine], Australian Broadcasting Corporation, June 2023
-*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmeZRN6YrN0 Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine], ABC News video, July 2023
-<br />
-[[File:Moscow Grand Kremlin Palace3.jpg|center|thumbnail|400px|The Grand Kremlin Palace is a building in the Moscow Kremlin.
-<br />
-<br />
-The Moscow Kremlin is a fortified complex in the center of Moscow. The Moscow Kremlin now serves as the official residence of the Russian president and as a museum.]]
-{{Clear}}
-=== Alcoholism in Russia and the war in Ukraine ===
-''See also:'' [[User:Conservative/Alcoholism in Russia]]
-*[https://nypost.com/2023/06/14/putins-staff-start-each-day-with-bottle-of-vodka-report/ Putin’s ‘stressed’ administration staff start each day with bottle of vodka: report], NY Post, 2023
-*[https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12193309/Putins-administration-staff-starting-day-bottle-vodka.html Putin's administration staff 'are starting the day with a bottle of vodka and Security Council's Dmitry Medvedev is often drunk when he writes his apocalyptic threats of nuclear war'], Daily Mail, June 2023
-=== Russia soldiers, alcoholism and the war in Ukraine ===
-*[https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4088951-russia-is-losing-in-ukraine-because-of-its-army-of-addicts/ Russian troops are battling high and drunk: It’s nothing new], The Hill, July 2023
-In 2023, Business Insider reported: "Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows."<ref>[https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-vodka-historian-sees-parallels-between-now-and-past-wars-2023-4 Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows.], Business Insider, 2023</ref>
-<br />
-<br />
-[[File:04656 market in Sanok.JPG|thumbnail|1000px|center|In 2023, Russia had the second highest alcoholism rate in the world as far as it being a problem with both genders.<ref>[https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/alcoholism-by-country Alcoholism by country]</ref> In addition, in 2023 Russia had the highest alcoholism rate for males.<ref>[https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/alcoholism-by-country Alcoholism by country]</ref>
-<br />
-<br />
-In 2019, it was reported that every year 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.<ref>''[https://www.obserwatorfinansowy.pl/in-english/macroeconomics/demographic-crisis-in-russia/ Demographic crisis in Russia]'' by Adam Gwiazda, 2019</ref>
-<br />
-<br />
-In 2023, Business Insider reported: "Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows."<ref>[https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-vodka-historian-sees-parallels-between-now-and-past-wars-2023-4 Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows.], Business Insider, 2023</ref>
-<br />
-<br />
-''Jerusalem Post'': [https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-736145 Many Russian troop deaths tied to alcohol, gun accidents, hypothermia -UK], 2023]]
-<big>'''This essay is a work in progress'''</big>
-== Notes ==
-{{reflist|2}}
-[[Category: Russia]]
-[[Category: Essays]]

Difference between revisions of "Essay: Stavridis: Getting Pummeled in War Is a 200-Year Russian Tradition"

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