American Government Lecture One

To enroll, see Conservapedia:American Government Fall 2012.

Welcome to this course in American Government & Politics! The full title is "Government" and "Politics" because it is impossible to understand one without the other. Government policies are dictated by elected officials, and they care most about being reelected. To understand why government acts in certain ways, it is necessary to understand elections first.

Tonight, September 6, 2012, President Barack Obama will accept the nomination by the Democratic Party for his candidacy to be reelected as president of the United States. As is customary, he will deliver an acceptance speech that tries to persuade millions of Americans to reelect him. A week earlier, on August 30th, Mitt Romney accepted the nomination by the Republican Party to be elected to this same position. In every year divisible by four, including this 2012, the United States elects (or reelects) a president. At the same time, officially the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November ("Election Day"), American voters also elect the entire House of Representatives (435 officers) and one-third of the U.S. Senate. (One third of the U.S. Senate is elected every two years, such that by every six years the entire Senate has been elected.) Many state offices are also on the ballot on Election Day.

Unlike most nations, American government is run by persons who stand for election or reelection on fixed days determined by law, and every political leader focuses on that election the way that sports stars and fans focus on the Super Bowl, the World Series, or the Olympics. Billions of dollars are spent in political advertisements on television, radio and the internet, and in mailings sent to nearly every household in American. in attempts by political campaigns to win. This is more exciting than sports contests, and the outcomes of political struggles make an enormous difference in which direction our Nation goes in the future.

There are three branches of government, and at the national ("federal") level only the first two stand for election:

• Executive branch (president, the military, and nearly all federal government agencies)
• Legislative branch (Congress and its staff)
• Judicial branch (federal courts, including hundreds of federal judges and their staff and the U.S. Supreme Court)

In addition, there is state government, which is completely independent of the federal government in our unique system of dual sovereigns. There is also free enterprise (the free market), which is regulated by government but has an independent influence on Elections, as the economy has good times and bad and thereby affects how people vote.

Difference Between Politics and History

History is about the past; politics is about the future. Unlike history, politics is constantly changing. In some ways, politics is similar to a game in sports: what happened on the last football play or baseball pitch is not likely to be copied for the next play or pitch. Instead, the way the game is played is constantly changing. How an election was won two or four years ago is probably not how it will be won next time.

But history can be a guide in predicting the future, and the presidential election between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama is being compared to two prior presidential elections:

• the 1980 presidential election between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter
• the 1948 presidential election between Tom Dewey and Harry Truman

In both 1980 and 1948, the economy was doing terribly, as it is now. In both 1980 and 1948, an unpopular incumbent president was running for reelection, just as Barack Obama has low approval ratings today. In 1980, the Republican challenger Ronald Reagan won by a landslide. But in 1948, the Republican challenger Tom Dewey lost to the incumbent Harry Truman. Will this year's election be more like 1980, or more like 1948? What do you think?

Politics as a Team Sport

Politics is not easy to understand, even by people who have studied it for decades. Many predictions by the greatest experts turn out to be completely wrong.

A first step to understanding politics is to recognize that it is a team sport, and it is never fair to individuals. You might be the greatest wide receiver to play the game of football, but if the running back on your team repeatedly fumbles the ball, then you will lose. If you play in a game where the referees are against you on every play, then you will also lose no matter how good your team is. If there is a massive snowstorm in the middle of the game, then that can cause you to lose also even though your team was better.

In American politics, the two biggest "teams" are the Republicans and the Democrats. Problems with one member of the team affect the ability of other members of the team to win. The "referees" are the media, and they have a big impact also. So does "weather" conditions like the state of the economy, or foreign relations.

This model for politics as a team sport goes far beyond Republicans versus Democrats. Within each political party there are also alliances and teams that form to help candidates win nominations by the party. The team backing John McCain to win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona on August 24th included Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and many other prominent Republicans. The team backing McCain's opponent, J.D. Hayworth, included Tea Party groups, anti-illegal immigration groups, the Gun Owners of America, and other conservative groups. Which team proved to be stronger on August 24th, when the primary election was held?

Elections are called "campaigns" because there are many contributing forces that determine the outcome. There are campaign contributions to the candidate for his use in printing materials, paying workers, and buying ads. There are volunteer efforts such as "phone-banking" (calling voters on lists), "door-to-door" (walking up to houses and knocking on doors in support of a candidate), "literature drops" (such as handing out campaign literature at a subway station or bus stop), passing out bumper stickers, and attending public meetings to discuss issues relating to the election. There are also "independent expenditures," by which other groups buy advertisements without any approval or coordination with the candidate.

When a candidate wins or loses, it is really his team that wins or loses. His opponent may have put together a stronger team, or had better strategy, or the "referee" (media) may have been biased, or events outside of the control of the candidate (such as the economy) may have determined the outcome. Often, but not always, the candidate who spends the most money wins, because he is able to get his message out to voters the best.

Why Participate?

Many Americans fail to participate in the political process; they do not help any "team". They are too lazy, or fail to understand the process, or fail to see the beneits in participating. They are making a mistake.

There is no "free lunch." Participation in the political process is like exercise or other forms of self-improvement. One needs to find a way to enjoy it.

Participating in the political process by "playing on a team" is beneficial both to the individual and to the nation:

• like winning at sports, it's important to play offense (e.g., participating in the March for Life) as well as defense (e.g., abiding by the Ten Commandments)
• like playing on a sports team, it's a healthy activity that instills a spirit of camaraderie, competitiveness and achievement
• like playing on a sports team, the strategy is fascinating and is helpful to understanding the game
• one side will win, and it's important to work against the triumph of bad ideas and hurtful policies
• contacts are created in political activities that are helpful in making new friends and meeting people; often volunteering for political activities leads to good job offers, as when one congressman recently offered a job to a volunteer he saw attending a conference
• skills learned in politics, such as dealing with people, are invaluable in other walks of life
• George Orwell said that "all issues are political issues"; political changes affect how many people become or remain Christians
• the political process decides pro-life issues; Poland reduced its number of abortions by 99% when it changed its political system away from communism in the 1990s
• the alternatives to participating in politics can be hurtful, such as getting fat, becoming addicted to video games, or mental decline

"Midterm" Elections

On November 2nd, all 435 House seats are up for election, and at least 33 out of 100 (U.S.) Senate seats are likewise on the ballot. (Sometimes more Senate seats are on the ballot due to special elections to fill vacancies; without vacancies the number would be 33 one year, 33 two years later, and 34 two years after that.) The president is not on the ballot because this year, 2010, is not divisible by 4; the presidential term is 4 years and Barack Obama was elected to that position in 2008.

There are two vacancies in the House as of August 1st, and of the remaining 433 House seats, the Democrats hold a 38-vote majority. Stated another way, the Republicans can win a vote only if 38 Democrats cross over to their side on the issue (and no Republicans cross to the Democratic side on the issue). From this information you can figure out the answer to Question 2 below: how many House seats are Democratic, and how many are Republican. In the Senate, the Democrats hold a 9-vote majority, but because the Vice President is also a Democrat and his job is to cast a vote if there is a tie, the Democrats essentially hold a 10-vote majority there.

Due to gerrymandering, however, fewer than 100 out of the 435 House seats are "in play," such that either party could win it. Gerrymandering is one many new terms you will learn as part of this course. Its name comes from a cartoon making fun of Governor Eldridge Gerry of Massachusetts in 1812, who signed into law a redistricting for state that used odd shapes in order to help his political party be elected. This is possible because voting patterns become predictable over time: many neighborhoods are known to vote heavily Democratic or heavily Republican based on prior elections.

For example, San Francisco is a heavily Democratic area, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi represents a "safe seat" there. Indeed, more than 335 out of the 435 House seats represent districts that are safely Republican or safely Democratic. In those districts, the only way to defeat an incumbent (the person in office running for reelection) is to defeat him in the primary.

With the advent of the internet, there is up-to-the minute analysis of the likely outcomes in every election. One site, "RealClearPolitics"(you might consider that website name to be an "oxymoron", or self-contradictory term, because politics is rarely "clear") provided this analysis on August 1:

• U.S. House of Representatives: 202 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats in the election, 201 seats likely to be retained or won by Republicans in the election, and 32 "toss-up" seats that can be won by either side.

• U.S. Senate: 49 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats, 43 likely to be retained or won by Republicans, and 8 "toss-up" seats. Note that in the U.S. Senate there are two "Independents", but they vote for Democratic control so they are treated as Democratic.

• State Governors: 14 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats, 24 likely to be retained or won by Republicans, and 11 seats are "toss-ups". (Note that the election of the governor of New Jersey occurs only every four years in an odd-numbered year, not this year; Governor Chris Christie was elected in November 2009.)

In 1994, when Democratic President Bill Clinton had approval ratings of 46%, his party (the Democratic Party) lost the following in the "midterm elections": 54 seats in the House, 8 seats in the Senate, 9 state governor seats, and 514 state legislator seats. It was considered a landslide loss for the Democratic Party, one of its worst ever. How will it do in two months?

Homework

List the different factors that affect the outcome of an election, such as the status of the economy (consumer confidence), the extent of media bias in favoring one side, the strength of the candidates with respect to electability, special world or national events that may sway the public more to one side than the other, and so on. Ponder how much "weight" or emphasis to give each consideration (with the totals adding up to 100%, as in 30% to the economy, 35% to media bias, etc.). Then answer these questions:

1. List what you think are the top factors (e.g., jobs, handling of the wars, Tea Parties, media bias, government spending, education, or anything else) affecting the outcome of the election this November 2nd, and give relative "weights" to each according to your opinion.

2. Identify the total numbers by political party in the House and Senate, before the election (e.g., the House consists of __ Democrats and __ Republicans, for a total of 435). Include the Independents in the Senate in the Democratic totals because they vote for the Democratic leadership.

3. Is the President on the ballot this November? If not, then why not?

4. Using your answers questions 1 and 2 above and any other information, make a prediction of composition by political party of the House and Senate after Election Day. Explain briefly the basis of your predictions.

Extra credit:

5. What tactical change by either party between now and the election would cause you to change your prediction significantly?

Post your answers at American Government Homework One.