Difference between revisions of "Essay: December 2021 was a pivotal moment in the future of global politics for decades to come"

Revision as of 12:10, March 28, 2024

China is no longer set to eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation’s confidence slump becomes more entrenched.

That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind.”

Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.^[1]

See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

Newsweek's 2024 article China's Economic Slump Wipes 155 Billionaires off Global Rich List reported "The signs of trouble for the Chinese economy have been flashing red since troubles for real estate giant Evergrande began in 2021." On September 22, 2021, CBS News reported: Struggling Evergrande Group says it will make bond payment this week.

China has been in the midst of a real estate crisis (See: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)). Since 2021, China’s stock markets have lost about $7 trillion in value (See: Chinese stock markets).^[2] On February 17, 2024, the South China Morning Post reported that China’s young adults choose to be ‘full-time children’, paid by their parents to do chores amid record-high youth unemployment.^[3][4] The Chinese phrase "full-time children" refers to young people who give up working and just live off their parents (See: Youth unemployment in China).^[5][6]

On February 6, 2024, Yahoo Finance said concerning the Chinese real estate crisis:

We live in a bipolar world where the second leading power China is financially struggling

See also: The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?

As far as the field of international relations, the education website Unacademy.com defines a unipolar world thusly, "A unipolar world is when the majority of the world is dominated by a single state or nation's military and economic power, and social and cultural influence." A bipolar world is when two countries are global superpowers. And a multipolar world is when three or more countries have major influence over the world.

A strong case can be made that we live in a bipolar world, where the second leading power is economically struggling.

Previously, I wrote the related essays:

• The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

• Skepticism about China remaining a global power

• Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

The material below argues that the world is not presently multipolar.

• The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?

• The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, April 18, 2023

• The multipolarity thesis: the verdict of Unhedged and Chartbook, Financial Times, October 12, 2023

• No, the World Is Not Multipolar, Foreign Affairs, September 22, 2023

• Multipolarity: What Is It Good For? (Discussion of the above Foreign Affairs article The Myth of Multipolarity, 2023)

"The United States and China are undoubtedly the two most powerful countries, but at least one more country must be roughly in their league for multipolarity to exist. This is where claims of multipolarity fall apart. Every country that could plausibly rank third—France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom—is in no way a rough peer of the United States or China." -The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, 2023

However, a number of leading geopolitical analysts are skeptical about China remaining a global power as it faces a number of serious intractable problems (See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power).

I do agree with Donald Trump that America should not get into "endless wars" that do not serve America's vital interests.^[8] I also agree with Trump's policy of not using the American military to "solve ancient conflicts in faraway lands".^[9]

Chart of the growth of U.S. GNP from January 1947 to January 2023.

A great strength of the United States is its very consistent growth of its GNP over decades and its quick recovery the few times its GNP has gone down.^[10]

In addition, research indicates that in the long-term, non-authoritarian countries are more likely to experience greater economic growth. See: Time Under Authoritarian Rule and Economic Growth, CORI Working Paper No. 2007-02

For more information on this topic, please see:

*Should You Be Bullish on America?

Why is America so rich?

*Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world

*Slow and steady growth over the long term via capitalism and the rule of law versus short-sighted authoritarian economic growth that is costly to the long term economy

Investopedia says about the importance of labor productivity to an economy, "Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity is directly linked to improved standards of living in the form of higher consumption."^[11]

According the Yahoo Finance: "According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country... The United States has one of the strongest economies in the world. The country hosts some of the largest companies in the world, which contributes to the high GDP per capita in the country."^[12]

As can be seen in the map above, the USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world and it is significantly higher than both China and Russia.^[13]

The USA was among the most 10 most diverse economies in 2018 according to the Word Atlas website.^[14]

Read the articles: The Importance Of A Diversified Economy and Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification

In August of 2023, the USA was outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production.^[15]. The best is yet to come!^[16][17]

The U.S. Energy Information System reported in 2023: "Strong continuing international demand for petroleum and other liquids will sustain U.S. production above 2022 levels through 2050, according to most of the cases we examined in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023). We project that the United States will continue to be an integral part of global oil markets and a significant source of supply in these cases, as increased exports of finished products support U.S. production."^[18]

For more information, please see: The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come

References