Difference between revisions of "User:Conservative/International relations and geopolitics"

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=== Russia ===
 
=== Russia ===
  
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*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home Russia and Russian economy]
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*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home Russia and Russian economy] (Putin's trilemna, Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar)
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*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/indicators Russia's leading economic indicators] (Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar)
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*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/indicators Russia's leading economic indicators]  
 
*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/crude-oil-production Russia crude oil production]
 
*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/crude-oil-production Russia crude oil production]
 
*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=587356145&sxsrf=AM9HkKn4XkQNN8kJGanSmYTMf2cpIHTbmg:1701557801049&q=russian+economy&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiTiq_i7PGCAxUoIDQIHXcgASIQ0pQJegQIDBAB&biw=1920&bih=941&dpr=1 Russia - economy]
 
*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=587356145&sxsrf=AM9HkKn4XkQNN8kJGanSmYTMf2cpIHTbmg:1701557801049&q=russian+economy&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiTiq_i7PGCAxUoIDQIHXcgASIQ0pQJegQIDBAB&biw=1920&bih=941&dpr=1 Russia - economy]

Revision as of 16:28, April 22, 2024

Politics

Contents

World economics and trends

2023

World News

World news Western perspective:

World News - NonWestern perspective:

Non-Western international politics YouTube channels :

World news. Data-driven UK YouTube video channel:

Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history

Burning Archive

Stephen Kotkin lectures

Emmanuel Todd

  • Emmanuel Todd - Contrarian French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris.

The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan

Polarity (International relations)

Bipolar:

Middle Ground:

Multiple views discussed:

Multipolar:

Focuses on the rise of non-state actors and the state having less power:

Western World

USA

Europe

According to a September 2022 Ipsos poll, 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline.[1]

As the HMS United Kingdom was going down, Britons could be heard saying, "We shouldn't have put Charles Darwin on our currency. God is not mocked. We are reaping what we sowed."

European News:

  • The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) - The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) is the research division of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Europe, a leading American graduate school offering advanced degrees in international relations, international affairs and global risk.

Other:

Europe's anti-Americanism post start of Russia vs. Ukraine War:

Classical liberalism view:

Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent:

The deindustrialization of Germany/Europe (Europe's economic engine):

India

Websites:

YouTube:

China

China:

China, leading economic indicators:

Length of modern, authoritarian/communist regimes:

China likely stuck in middle-income trap

Chinese export strategy will not work this time

In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards.

Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time, Forbes, April 15, 2024).

Biden hits China with steel tariffs
= US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China
Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60%

In 2023, China's exports made up around 18.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

According to World's Top Exports, the United States is one of China's top trading partners, accounting for 14.8% of China's total exports in 2023.

If USA starts decoupling from China, it could spur other countries to as well (Like a contagion). Plus, it would give other countries more bargaining power.

China's economy is already showing "economic cracks".

Video: Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ?

Japan

Japan YouTube channels:

Russia

Russia stuck in the middle-income trap:

See also: Middle-income trap

Russia was a high-income country: Russia (2012–14, 2022), but now likely in the middle-income trap. MOSCOW BLOG: Russia is stuck in the middle-income trap, 2017, IntelliNews. See: Middle-income trap and High-income economies

Putinomics and the middle-income trap

Article: Russia’s Economy, War in Ukraine, and Hopes for Post-Putin Liberalization, economist Sergey Guriyev, video at: Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)", Sergey Maratovich Guriyev is a Russian economist, who is provost and a professor of economics at the Institut d'études politiques in Paris. From 2016 to 2019, he was the chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

"Guriev kicked off his keynote address at the Davis Center’s recent 75th anniversary event with a brief economic history of Putin’s Russia, going from growth to “Putinomics” to stagnation:

Its first 10 years (1999-2008) marked one of the Russian economy’s best decades, “if not the best,” on record; a weak ruble made the country more competitive, unused production capacity created business opportunities, and rising oil prices accounted for about half of Russia’s GDP growth, which averaged 7% a year. The economy was likewise helped along by reforms that stimulated private-sector initiative — a simplified tax system, property rights for land, and modern bank regulation, among others.

Then came the global economic crisis of 2008-2009, throwing into relief problems that had begun to accumulate earlier. Circa 2003-2004, Putin, rather than pushing through more reforms, had started introducing “Putinomics” — an economy increasingly “controlled by the state and friends of Putin,” Guriev said. Despite an initial recovery after the crisis, it was clear that “the growth model of Putin’s first decade was running out of steam,” in Guriev’s words; growth in 2010-2012 began slowing down, reaching a paltry 1% in 2013. Afterward, Russia’s economy entered an era of stagnation, akin to the 1970s and ’80s, with GDP growth in 2013-2019 averaging less than 1% a year. Unlike South Korea — which once had a growth trajectory similar to Russia’s halcyon years — Moscow failed to dismantle its system of crony capitalism. Today, Seoul presides over a competitive, post-industrial, knowledge-based economy, while Russia got stuck in the so-called middle-income trap, Guriev noted."

Alternative view of Putinomics: Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia, Heritage Foundation: "When Vladimir Putin first took power in 1999, he was a little-known figure ruling a country that was reeling from a decade and a half of crisis. In the years since, he has reestablished Russia as a great power. How did he do it? What principles have guided Putin’s economic policies? What patterns can be discerned? In this new analysis of Putin’s Russia, Chris Miller examines its economic policy and the tools Russia’s elite have used to achieve its goals. Miller argues that despite Russia’s corruption, cronyism, and overdependence on oil as an economic driver, Putin’s economic strategy has been surprisingly successful."

Will Russian assets be seized?

The limits of the Russian military:

Sergei Guriev (Economist):

Alexandra Prokopenko:

Alexandra Prokopenko (Expert on Russian economic and monetary policy and the decision-making. From 2017 until early 2022 Alexandra worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti. She is a graduate of Moscow State University and holds an MA in Sociology from the University of Manchester:

News:


  • John Mearsheimer - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
  • Steve Turley - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
  • Dmitry Orlov - YouTube - Dmitry Orlov is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)




Blogs:

Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:

Economic problems:

Russian culture overview:

Other cultural overview:

Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future and The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy

Russia and fertility rate and demographics:

Contemporary Russia:

Putin:

Maps of Russia:


Ukraine:

Post Western World notion

Decline of nations:

Map of world by population size

Peter Zeihan's view

International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels and websites

Geopolitics and Empire

Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.):

Burning archive:

Popular International relations and geopolitics:

Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)

Pro-Western YouTube channels:

  • RANE (Related to Stratfor)

India:

Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western or anti-Western

International relations websites - Pro-Western

Israel

  • JNS (BTW, JNS is also critical on ADL's Greenblatt woke stuff), INN, and at times center leaning I24, or left leaning - Ynet or TOI. ILH is center leaning. Note. JPost is usually center leaning when it states it's by "Jerusalem Post Staff," but it often posts pure Reuters stuff.

Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles

Modern Israel fulfills biblical prophecy:

Prophecies about the land of Israel fulfilled in our lifetime: Is Modern Israel Fulfilling Prophecy? and Is the modern state of Israel the fullfillment of prophecy and Unveiling the mysteries of Israel: Four biblical prophecies being fulfilled right now.

Miracles

Six Day War

USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism

Trends:

Pointless and costly wars such as the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more isolationist sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful diplomacy. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: Just War Theory).

Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector).

NATO

Expansion of NATO

Pro-NATO expansion:

  • Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion
  • "But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[2]

Historian Mary E. Sarotte on issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:

  • Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by Mary E. Sarotte. ‎Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)


Middle of the road on NATO expansion:

Anti-NATO expansion:

NATO's soft underbellys

China and Christianity

What would a post-communist China look like?

World map

World map by population

Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future

John Mearsheimer's view

Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine

Mearsheimer argues that liberalism pulls a society apart due to disagreement on first principles and that is why it preaches tolerance, but nationalism is a glue that helps hold a society together.[3]. Mearsheimer says liberals don't like realist school of politics because it goes against the grain of idealism and they like to pretend that liberal democracies never engage in realpolitik type behavior.[4]

Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems.

Peter Zeihan's view

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

Changing civilizational world order

Globalization of trade

War

"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History (Fukuyama) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor Eric Kaufmann, Twitter/X.[6], See: War and Peace.

Books

Notes

  1. ↑ 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline, 2022 Ipsos poll
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