Labor shortages and desecularization projected to be faster in New Zealand in the 21st century

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Smrithi Kamtikar performing at Rhythm and Rhapsody, Auckland, NZ.

On December 28, 2018, the New Zealand Herald reported, "New data obtained by the Herald from the Department of Internal Affairs reveals that people born in India top the list of new citizens living in Auckland."[1]

According to the 2012 WIN-Gallup Global Index of Religion and Atheism report, 81% of Indians were religious, 13% were non-religious and merely 3% were convinced atheist.[2]

In the latter part of the 21st century or sooner, New Zealand will experience a significant trend of desecularization and become a postsecular society (see: Postsecularism and New Zealand in the 21st century).

Jens Köhrsen, a professor for religion and economics at the Centre for Religion, Economy and Politics (ZRWP)[3], wrote:

“ [ Jürgen Habermas ] ...argues that a new age, the age of post-secularity, has begun. Previously vastly secularized societies, like the highly developed countries of Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, would experience a new awareness of religion and attribute a new public role to religion. From now on, religion would constitute a relevant dialogue partner in the public debates of these societies (Habermas, 2008). Moreover, Habermas presents a normative argument about public religion: he recommends that post-secular societies should facilitate religious contributions to the public sphere. Religious reasoning could contribute to public debates about the ethical values of contemporaneous and future societies. Habermas believes that modern societies might find some answers to the moral questions of our time by listening to religion in public debates (Habermas, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008). A similar position to that of Habermas is proposed by Leclerc (2001) and French sociologist Willaime (2004a, 2004b, 2005[1995]: 76-78, 2008). Willaime observes that even the highly secularized public and political sphere of France is exhibiting a new, more open attitude towards religion. The hypersecularity of France would stimulate a restructuration process of religion. According to Willaime, religion can form an important resource for public debates and be engaged in the identity construction process of individuals and collectives.[4] ”

New Zealand's desperate shortage of labor in many sectors, religious immigrants and desecularization happening faster in New Zealand in the 21st century

New Zealand is increasing facing a hyper-aging population in its towns and cities (See: New Zealand, its growing problem of hyper-aging areas and desecularization).

Professor Paul Spooney is a sociologist and Distinguished Emeritus Professor at Massey University. He is the author of the book The New New Zealand. Facing Demographic Disruption.[5]

According to Professor Spooney:

“ As we look to re-invigorate the New Zealand economy, there is a lot of finger-pointing and a reluctance to accept that responsibility lies as much with employers and communities as it does with government. Take immigration.

Like the rest of the developed world, we are desperately short of labour in many sectors. Our demography has not helped.

Declining fertility rates will add to labour shortages over time, but the most recent factor has been the “Great Retirement”. There was a spike in most countries of what is referred to as “excess retirements” – the numbers retiring from the workforce at a higher rate than expected – during Covid. In the USA, the number was a rather staggering 2.6 million excess retirements.

Developed countries, as they emerge from the first stage of the pandemic, are discovering how significant the crunch in labour availability is...

Attention has swung to sourcing labour offshore as a way of making up the deficit...

At this point, we certainly need government to tweak our immigration policy settings and to provide the resources to recruit and approve applications.[6]

”

The 2022 article Real change to the New Zealand immigration system states:

“ “New Zealand businesses are suffering from workforce shortages caused by an inflexible and illogical immigration system, we need real change to ensure employers can access the workers they need and hard working immigrants can contribute to New Zealand society,” says ACT’s Immigration spokesperson Dr James McDowall.

“The New Zealand economy is facing a labour crisis that’s reducing production and pushing up costs. ACT is calling on the Government to remove restrictions that may have made sense when we were short of jobs, but make no sense in a labour crisis,” says ACT’s Immigration spokesperson Dr James McDowall.

“To ease the cost of living crisis, the Government should dump the labour market test, industry specific wage requirements, and transfer restrictions. Foreign workers should be able to work for accredited employers so long as they are employed consistent with New Zealand law.

“Employers across New Zealand are facing the same problem, they need workers but it is near impossible to bring them in from overseas.

“The Government’s new residency scheme ‘Green List’ leaves far too many professions out in the cold and Kiwi business owners shaking their heads.

“The few professions that are eligible for residency are held back by leisurely visa processing times.

“Other countries can see there’s a war for talent and they’re taking steps to raid New Zealand’s. For example, the UK recently extended the working holiday visa for Kiwis to 35 years of age. In stark contrast Immigration NZ is acting like a security guard at the border.

“In short, the whole system is a mess. It inflicts costs on struggling businesses which are then passed on to consumers as well. Our productivity levels are tanking as orchards can’t get fruit pickers. Building sites can’t get builders. Hospitals can’t get nurses. Farms can’t get milkers. There are shortages of essential workers that are creating a wage-price spiral.[7]

”

New Zealand has an ageing population due to a declining fertility rate, the ageing of the baby boom generation and an increase in average life expectancy.[8]

Professor Eric Kaufmann, who teaches at Birkbeck College, University of London, specializes in the academic area of how demographic changes affect religion/irreligion and politics. Kaufmann is an agnostic.

Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern, an agnostic, spoke during centenary celebrations at Rātana Church in November. She gifted her Bible to the movement, saying it was a symbol of her promise to lead a government that was kind and compassionate.[9]

On December 23, 2012, Kaufmann wrote:

“ I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.[10] [11]

”

Concerning the future of religion/secularism in Europe, Professor Eric Kaufmann wrote:

“ We have performed these unprecedented analyses on several cases. Austria offers us a window into what the future holds. Its census question on religious affiliation permits us to perform cohort component projections, which show the secular population plateauing by 2050, or as early as 2021 if secularism fails to attract lapsed Christians and new Muslim immigrants at the same rate as it has in the past. (Goujon, Skirbekk et al. 2006).

This task will arguably become far more difficult as the supply of nominal Christians dries up while more secularisation-resistant Muslims and committed rump Christians comprise an increasing share of the population.[12]

”

A study conducted by the Washington-based Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life says that Africans are among the most religious people on Earth.[13] Africa has a high fertility rate and it is seeing a big population boom. According to the Institute For Security Studies: "Africa's population is the fastest growing in the world. It is expected to increase by roughly 50% over the next 18 years, growing from 1.2 billion people today to over 1.8 billion in 2035. In fact, Africa will account for nearly half of global population growth over the next two decades."[14] See: Religion and Africa

At a conference Kaufmann said of religious demographic projections concerning the 21st century:

“ Part of the reason I think demography is very important, at least if we are going to speak about the future, is that it is the most predictable of the social sciences.

...if you look at a population and its age structure now. You can tell a lot about the future. ...So by looking at the relative age structure of different populations you can already say a lot about the future...

...Religious fundamentalism is going to be on the increase in the future and not just out there in the developing world..., but in the developed world as well.[15]

”

See also: Religion and migration and Growth of religious fundamentalism

See also

Essay:

Notes

  1. ↑ Indians top list of Auckland's new NZ citizens, New Zealand Herald, December 28, 2018
  2. ↑ Global Index Of Religion And Atheism" (PDF). WIN-Gallup. Archived from the original (PDF) on 16 October 2012. Retrieved 3 September 2013.
  3. ↑ Prof. Dr. Jens Köhrsen, University website faculty page
  4. ↑ How religious is the public sphere? – A critical stance on the debate about public religion and post-secularity, Draft Version, Jens Koehrsen (Köhrsen). Bielefeld Graduate School in History and Sociology, Germany. École des hautes études en sciences socials, France. Published in: Acta Sociologica 55 (3), S. 273-288.
  5. ↑ There's a labour shortage, but where will we get our workers from? by Paul Spooney
  6. ↑ There's a labour shortage, but where will we get our workers from? by Paul Spooney
  7. ↑ Real change to the New Zealand immigration system
  8. ↑ IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING IN NEW ZEALAND ON THE DEMAND FOR HEALTH AND DISABILITY SUPPORT SERVICES, AND WORKFORCE IMPLICATIONS
  9. ↑ Godless NZ? Not entirely - we're actually becoming a more Christian nation
  10. ↑ London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  11. ↑ 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious, Tuesday, April 30, 2013
  12. ↑ Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann
  13. ↑ Why so many Africans are religious: Leo Igwe
  14. ↑ Africa’s population boom: burden or opportunity?, Institute For Security Studies
  15. ↑ Eric Kaufmann - Religion, Demography and Politics in the 21st Century
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