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| − | '''Swing states''' are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support prior to a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the election results in either direction. They are also known as "battleground states" because they are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. Since states that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic of Republican candidate are usually referred to as [[blue state|blue states]] and [[red state|red states]], repectively, these states are also called "purple states" in order to highlight their mixed demographical nature. | + | '''Swing states''' are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support prior to a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the election results in either direction. They are also known as "battleground states" because they are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. Since states that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic of Republican candidate are usually referred to as [[blue state|blue states]] and [[red state|red states]], respectively, these states are also called "purple states" in order to highlight their mixed demographical nature. '''It is expected that hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by [[Super PAC]]s will be spent in these swing states in the fall of 2012'''. |
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| − | '''It is expected that hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by [[Super PAC]]s will be spent in these swing states in the fall of 2012'''.
| + | Here are the key swing states for the [[Presidential Election 2012]]: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.<ref>http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/05/26/national/a080145D80.DTL#ixzz1w1roz7XG</ref> Assuming that Republicans win Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire -- Romney has a home in New Hampshire and Virginia is now solidly Republican -- '''''the entire election could be decided in only Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio'''''. |
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| − | Swing state politics is having an enormous influence on policy: [[Obama]]'s abrupt change in [[deportation]] policy was probably due to how [[Mitt Romney]] has erased Obama's lead in the key swing state of [[Colorado]], and narrowed the lead in [[Nevada]] and [[Virginia]], all of which have large [[Hispanic]] populations.<ref>http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/233037-obama-takes-action-on-deportations-as-romney-closes-gap-in-swing-states</ref>
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| − | Here are the key swing states for the [[Presidential Election 2012]], ranked by likelihood that [[Barack Obama]] will lose them despite winning them in 2008. These eight swing states will have a total of 122 [[Electoral College]] votes in 2012. ('''''In 2008 Obama won by a margin of only six of these states'''''.) | |
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| − | News reports list these seven states as the key swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.<ref>http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/05/26/national/a080145D80.DTL#ixzz1w1roz7XG</ref> Assuming that Republicans win Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire -- Romney has a home in New Hampshire and Virginia is now solidly Republican -- '''''the entire election could be decided in only Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio'''''. Romney is strong in Nevada, and it is far from clear that Democrats will win their strongholds of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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| | {| class="wikitable" | | {| class="wikitable" |
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| | !Electoral Votes in 2012 | | !Electoral Votes in 2012 |
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| − | |Easy Republican win this time | + | |Toss-up |
| − | |Indiana
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| − | |1%
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| − | |Indiana was a red state from 1964 to 2004, and when Obama took the state in 2008 it was by an extremely narrow margin. Obama is currently very unpopular in the state. '''Obama has no chance of winning this state in 2012 and may not even try'''.
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| − | |11
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| − | |-
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| − | |Very likely Republican win this time
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| | |Virginia | | |Virginia |
| | |6% | | |6% |
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| | |29 | | |29 |
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| − | | | + | |Toss-up |
| | |Iowa | | |Iowa |
| | |9.5% | | |9.5% |
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| | |12.5% | | |12.5% |
| | |A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for [[Republican]] [[Mark Amodei]]. [[Harry Reid]] won reelection in 2010 despite [[Tea Party]] opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. | | |A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for [[Republican]] [[Mark Amodei]]. [[Harry Reid]] won reelection in 2010 despite [[Tea Party]] opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. |
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| | + | |Obama favored, but Romney has some roots here and was governor of nearby Massachusetts |
| | + | |New Hampshire |
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| | + | |4 |
| | |6 | | |6 |
| | |} | | |} |
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| | + | == Affect on Policy == |
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| | + | Swing state politics is having an enormous influence on policy: [[Obama]]'s abrupt change in [[deportation]] policy was probably due to how [[Mitt Romney]] has erased Obama's lead in the key swing state of [[Colorado]], and narrowed the lead in [[Nevada]] and [[Virginia]], all of which have large [[Hispanic]] populations.<ref>http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/233037-obama-takes-action-on-deportations-as-romney-closes-gap-in-swing-states</ref> |
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| | ==2008 Swing States== | | ==2008 Swing States== |