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Revision as of 07:09, January 20, 2016
, 07:09, January 20, 2016→A Trump-Cruz race?: I meant that Cruz is more threatening to the Democrats because he is more electable,
== A Trump-Cruz race? ==
== A Trump-Cruz race? ==
The campaign buzz for the last couple of days has been that the Great Winnowing is finally in progress, and that the Republican field will soon be narrowed to Trump vs Cruz. This of course inevitable and predictable, but also seems a little early given that no one has actually caste any votes yet. [https://soopermexican.com/2016/01/14/wsj-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-ted-cruz-as-candidates-drop-out/ This poll] shows Cruz beating Trump by 8 points in a two-man race. Of course, it is possible Trump will bring people to the polls who don't ordinarily vote. Faced with the choice of Cruz or Trump, the establishment is going with Trump.[http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/01/19/gop-establishment-leaning-toward-trump-over-cruz.html] It seems that they consistently prefer the candidate who is less threatening to the Democrats. [[User:PeterKa|PeterKa]] ([[User talk:PeterKa|talk]]) 21:20, 19 January 2016 (EST)
The campaign buzz for the last couple of days has been that the Great Winnowing is finally in progress, and that the Republican field will soon be narrowed to Trump vs Cruz. This is of course inevitable and predictable, but also seems a little early given that no one has actually caste any votes yet. [https://soopermexican.com/2016/01/14/wsj-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-ted-cruz-as-candidates-drop-out/ This poll] shows Cruz beating Trump by 8 points in a two-man race. Of course, it is possible Trump will bring people to the polls who don't ordinarily vote. Faced with the choice of Cruz or Trump, the establishment is going with Trump.[http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/01/19/gop-establishment-leaning-toward-trump-over-cruz.html] It seems that they consistently prefer the candidate who is less threatening to the Democrats. [[User:PeterKa|PeterKa]] ([[User talk:PeterKa|talk]]) 21:20, 19 January 2016 (EST)
:Trump's immigration law enforcement and border security efforts would prevent other states from turning into California, so the Democrats shouldn't feel too copacetic about that. And Cruz may not even ''be'' in the race, which will encourage Rubio, Carson and Bush to neither drop out nor endorse Cruz. The spread between Cruz and Trump should depend a lot on endorsements, as Andy predicted, and Palin's endorsement of Trump today certainly didn't help Cruz. [[User:VargasMilan|VargasMilan]] ([[User talk:VargasMilan|talk]]) 01:29, 20 January 2016 (EST)
:Trump's immigration law enforcement and border security efforts would prevent other states from turning into California, so the Democrats shouldn't feel too copacetic about that. And Cruz may not even ''be'' in the race, which will encourage Rubio, Carson and Bush to neither drop out nor endorse Cruz. The spread between Cruz and Trump should depend a lot on endorsements, as Andy predicted, and Palin's endorsement of Trump today certainly didn't help Cruz. [[User:VargasMilan|VargasMilan]] ([[User talk:VargasMilan|talk]]) 01:29, 20 January 2016 (EST)
::I meant that Cruz is more threatening to the Democrats because he is more electable, for the reasons Nate Silver outlined in the article I linked to above. Over at ''National Review'', they have "[http://www.nationalreview.com/article/429952/ted-cruz-donald-trump-gop-establishment-prefers-trump What’s Driving the Establishment’s Preference for Trump over Cruz?]" They don't really answer the question though. Jeb Bush was the establishment's favorite until recently. As far as Democrats and independents go, the Bush name is poison. So whatever motivates the establishment to back a particular candidate, it's not electability. [[User:PeterKa|PeterKa]] ([[User talk:PeterKa|talk]]) 02:09, 20 January 2016 (EST)