Changes

[[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction]] is a 2016 book about [[forecasting]] written by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.

[[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction]] is a 2016 book about [[forecasting]] written by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.

The book reports on a wealth of data coming from the [https://goodjudgment.com/ The Good Judgment Project] (started in 2011) which indicates that well-chosen selected amateur forecasters who demonstrated their ability to accurately forecast were often more accurate than subject matter experts.<ref>"[https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21666098-forecasting-talent-luckily-it-can-be-learned-unclouded-vision Unclouded vision]". ''The Economist''. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.</ref>

The book reports on a wealth of data coming from the [https://goodjudgment.com/ The Good Judgment Project] (started in 2011) which indicates that well-chosen selected amateur forecasters who demonstrate their ability to accurately forecast are often more accurate than subject matter experts.<ref>"[https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21666098-forecasting-talent-luckily-it-can-be-learned-unclouded-vision Unclouded vision]". ''The Economist''. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.</ref>

Characteristics of "superforecasters":<ref>[https://jaknguyen.medium.com/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-summary-7d2bb0eea2e1 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary]</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20180719205012/https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=em&document_id=1053681521&serialid=gRAGx5o9KjpeAGBLPq7bpyJRa6r6fj06KjHB6PGBbGU%3D Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills], Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock</ref>

Characteristics of "superforecasters":<ref>[https://jaknguyen.medium.com/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-summary-7d2bb0eea2e1 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary]</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20180719205012/https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=em&document_id=1053681521&serialid=gRAGx5o9KjpeAGBLPq7bpyJRa6r6fj06KjHB6PGBbGU%3D Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills], Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock</ref>

- Cognition: [[Openness|Open-Minded]] (Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected), Intelligent, Curious (Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges), Reflective ([[Introversion|Introspective]] and self-critical), Numerate.

- Cognition: [[Openness|Open-Minded]] (Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected), Intelligent, Curious (Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges), Reflective ([[Introversion|Introspective]] and self-critical), Numerate.

- Analytical: Pragmatic (Not wedded to any idea or agenda), [https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27015-dragonfly-eyes-see-the-world-in-ultra-multicolour/ Dragonfly-Eyed] (Value diverse views and synthesize them into your own), Probabilistic, Thoughtful Updaters (When facts change, they change their minds), Intuitive Psychologist Intuitive (Aware of the value of checking thinking for [[cognitive bias]]es and [[emotional bias]]es)

- [[Analytical thinking|Analytical]]: Pragmatic (Not wedded to any idea or agenda), [https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27015-dragonfly-eyes-see-the-world-in-ultra-multicolour/ Dragonfly-Eyed] (Value diverse views and synthesize them into your own), Probabilistic, Thoughtful Updaters (When facts change, they change their minds), Intuitive Psychologist Intuitive (Aware of the value of checking thinking for [[cognitive bias]]es and [[emotional bias]]es)

- Work Ethic: [[Growth mindset|Growth Mindset]], [[Grit (personality trait)|Grit]] (Determined to keep at it however long it takes)

- Work Ethic: [[Growth mindset|Growth Mindset]], [[Grit (personality trait)|Grit]] (Determined to keep at it however long it takes)

[[File:Mind of a superforecaster.png|thumbnail|center|500px|The mind of a superforecaster<ref>[https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/06/05/The-Superforecasters.html The Superforecasters]</ref>]]

[[File:Mind of a superforecaster.png|thumbnail|center|500px|The mind of a superforecaster<ref>[https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/06/05/The-Superforecasters.html The Superforecasters]</ref>]]

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=== Mindset of superforecasters ===

=== Mindset of superforecasters ===

[[Category:Meteorology]]

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