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| | ''See [[early voting]] for an analysis of voting in swing states''. | | ''See [[early voting]] for an analysis of voting in swing states''. |
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| − | '''Swing states''', also called "'''battleground states'''," are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support prior to a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the presidential election outcome in either direction. These states are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. In 2024 the top swing states are [[Arizona]], [[Georgia]], and [[Wisconsin]], and the Republican can win nationally by capturing all three. [[Michigan]] has become a swing state for 2024 due to [[Biden]]'s push for job-eliminating [[electric vehicles]], and [[Nevada]] is also considered a swing state this cycle.<ref>https://www.aol.com/news/four-swing-states-determine-2024-172546726.html</ref> According to [[CNN]] as of September 4, 2023: | + | '''Swing states''', also called "'''battleground states'''," are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support before a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the presidential election outcome in either direction. These states are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. In 2024 the top swing states are [[Arizona]], [[Georgia]], and [[Wisconsin]], and the Republican can win nationally by capturing all three. [[Michigan]] has become a swing state for 2024 due to [[Biden]]'s push for job-eliminating [[electric vehicles]], and [[Nevada]] is also considered a swing state this cycle.<ref>https://www.aol.com/news/four-swing-states-determine-2024-172546726.html</ref> According to [[CNN]] as of September 4, 2023: |
| | {{cquote|all the analysts agree that Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, three states that flipped from [[Trump]] in 2016 to [[Biden]] in 2020, remain toss ups. They also agree that [[Michigan]], [[Nevada]], and [[Pennsylvania]], which Biden won, and [[North Carolina]], which backed Trump, are likely to remain at least somewhat competitive.<ref>https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/04/politics/2024-presidential-race-labor-day/index.html</ref>}} | | {{cquote|all the analysts agree that Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, three states that flipped from [[Trump]] in 2016 to [[Biden]] in 2020, remain toss ups. They also agree that [[Michigan]], [[Nevada]], and [[Pennsylvania]], which Biden won, and [[North Carolina]], which backed Trump, are likely to remain at least somewhat competitive.<ref>https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/04/politics/2024-presidential-race-labor-day/index.html</ref>}} |
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| − | States that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic or Republican candidate are usually referred to as [[blue state]]s and [[red state]]s, respectively, while swing states are called "[[purple state]]s" in order to highlight their mixed demographic nature. Hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by [[Super PAC]]s are spent almost entirely in swing states, where the presidential election outcome is expected to be decided. | + | States that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic or Republican candidate are usually referred to as [[blue state]]s and [[red state]]s, respectively, while swing states are called "[[purple state]]s" to highlight their mixed demographic nature. Hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by [[Super PAC]]s are spent almost entirely in swing states, where the presidential election outcome is expected to be decided. |
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| − | A notable example of a swing state from 2000-2016 is [[Florida]], where the southern portion of the state is solidly Democratic (excluding areas with large Cuban populations which historically vote Republican), the central portion leans Democratic, while the northern (especially among the many military bases, but excluding the Tallahassee area) and southwestern portions are solidly Republican. The swing state phenomenon was most notable in the 2000 Presidential Election, where the [[mainstream media]] called the state for Al Gore (before polls had closed in the Florida panhandle; as that area is solidly Republican some believe this was done intentionally to suppress the vote), only to have to walk their initial predictions back, then the country had to wait weeks before the winner was declared (George W. Bush, by a mere 537 votes). Because of that, and the normally warm weather during the campaign season (where the weather is cold in many other swing states) Florida is a popular place for Presidential campaigning. | + | A notable example of a swing state from 2000-2016 is [[Florida]], where the southern portion of the state is solidly Democratic (excluding areas with large Cuban populations that historically vote Republican), the central portion leans Democratic, while the northern (especially among the many military bases, but excluding the Tallahassee area) and southwestern portions are solidly Republican. The swing state phenomenon was most notable in the 2000 Presidential Election, where the [[mainstream media]] called the state for Al Gore (before polls had closed in the Florida panhandle; as that area is solidly Republican some believe this was done intentionally to suppress the vote), only to have to walk their initial predictions back, then the country had to wait weeks before the winner was declared (George W. Bush, by a mere 537 votes). Because of that, and the normally warm weather during the campaign season (where the weather is cold in many other swing states) Florida is a popular place for Presidential campaigning. |
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| | ==Background== | | ==Background== |
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| | {{see also|2020 Presidential election#Predictions and polls}} | | {{see also|2020 Presidential election#Predictions and polls}} |
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| − | In 2020, the seven closest swing states are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. The additional states of Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire are considered potential swing states, and [[Trump]] has campaigned there in September 2020 also. | + | In 2020, the seven closest swing states are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. The additional states of Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire are considered potential swing states, and [[Trump]] campaigned there in September 2020 also. |
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| | ===Arizona=== | | ===Arizona=== |
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| | ===Michigan=== | | ===Michigan=== |
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| − | Trump won [[Michigan]] by an extremely narrow margin in 2016, and polling had showed Biden in the lead, but by a margin that reduced during the course of summer, until August 28, 2020, when a poll released by Trafalgar Group gave Trump a one and a half point lead.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html RealClearPolitics Michigan], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-0820/ Trafalgar Poll August Michigan], retrieved August 29, 2020</ref> Trafalgar's early November poll showed Trump slightly ahead of Biden.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-1120/ Trafalgar Poll November Michigan], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> | + | Trump won [[Michigan]] by an extremely narrow margin in 2016, and polling had showed Biden in the lead, but by a margin that reduced during summer, until August 28, 2020, when a poll released by Trafalgar Group gave Trump a one and a half point lead.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html RealClearPolitics Michigan], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-0820/ Trafalgar Poll August Michigan], retrieved August 29, 2020</ref> Trafalgar's early November poll showed Trump slightly ahead of Biden.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-1120/ Trafalgar Poll November Michigan], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> |
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| | No excuse is required for an absentee ballot in the state.<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020/ FiveThirtyEight Project: How to Vote 2020], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> | | No excuse is required for an absentee ballot in the state.<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020/ FiveThirtyEight Project: How to Vote 2020], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> |
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| | |Leaning to Romney. | | |Leaning to Romney. |
| | |6% | | |6% |
| − | |Elected a Republican governor, [[Bob McDonnell]], in 2009. In the 2011 elections the Republican party took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature. A Rasmussen Reports survey of Virginia taken September 14 gave Obama a 1-point lead, 49% to 48%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president Election 2012: Virginia President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Elected a Republican governor, [[Bob McDonnell]], in 2009. In the 2011 elections the [[Republican Party]] took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature. A Rasmussen Reports survey of Virginia taken September 14 gave Obama a 1-point lead, 49% to 48%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president Election 2012: Virginia President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
| | |13 | | |13 |
| | |- | | |- |
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| | |Likely Romney | | |Likely Romney |
| | |2.8% | | |2.8% |
| − | |Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor [[Rick Scott]] is currently (August 2012) very unpopular in the state. Obama's approval in the state is below 50%. Florida is a must win for Romney;<ref>http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/sept-11-florida-a-true-must-win-for-romney/</ref> however, as of September 13, 2012, Obama held a 2-point lead, 48% to 46%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president Election 2012: Florida President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor [[Rick Scott]] is currently (August 2012) very unpopular in the state. Obama's approval in the state is below 50%. Florida is a must-win for Romney;<ref>http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/sept-11-florida-a-true-must-win-for-romney/</ref> however, as of September 13, 2012, Obama held a 2-point lead, 48% to 46%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president Election 2012: Florida President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
| | |29 | | |29 |
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| | |Leaning to Obama. | | |Leaning to Obama. |
| | |9.6% | | |9.6% |
| − | |Romney has some roots here and was governor of nearby Massachusetts. He holds a 3-point lead (48% to 45%) over Obama, as of September 19, 2012<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president Election 2012: New Hampshire President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Romney has some roots here and was governor of nearby Massachusetts. He holds a 3-point lead (48% to 45%) over Obama, as of September 19, 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president Election 2012: New Hampshire President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
| | |4 | | |4 |
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| | |Likely Romney, due to Obama's support of [[same-sex marriage]]. | | |Likely Romney, due to Obama's support of [[same-sex marriage]]. |
| | |0.3% | | |0.3% |
| − | |The current [[Democratic]] governor, [[Bev Perdue]], is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. Rasmussen's poll on September 14, 2012 had Romney at 51% to Obama's 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president Election 2012: North Carolina President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |The current [[Democratic]] governor, [[Bev Perdue]], is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. Rasmussen's poll on September 14, 2012, had Romney at 51% to Obama's 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president Election 2012: North Carolina President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
| | |15 | | |15 |
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| | |Toss-up | | |Toss-up |
| | |13.9% | | |13.9% |
| − | |Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their [[labor union]] allies, they failed to recall enough republican legislators for a majority, failed to defeat Justice David Prosser in the Supreme Court election. The final blow that put Wisconsin in play for the 2012 election was when Governor Scott Walker defeated his recall election by a wider margin than he was originally elected in 2010. The selection of Wisconsin Congressman [[Paul Ryan]] as Romney's running mate may also help him in Wisconsin and vie-presidential nominees tend to boost the ticket in their home state. While Romney did receive a bump after his choice of Ryan, as of September 2012, he was slightly trailing Obama, 46% to 49%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president Election 2012: Wisconsin President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their [[labor union]] allies, they failed to recall enough republican legislators for a majority, and failed to defeat Justice David Prosser in the Supreme Court election. The final blow that put Wisconsin in play for the 2012 election was when Governor Scott Walker defeated his recall election by a wider margin than he was originally elected in 2010. The selection of Wisconsin Congressman [[Paul Ryan]] as Romney's running mate may also help him in Wisconsin and vie-presidential nominees tend to boost the ticket in their home state. While Romney did receive a bump after his choice of Ryan, as of September 2012, he was slightly trailing Obama, 46% to 49%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president Election 2012: Wisconsin President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
| | |10 | | |10 |
| | |} | | |} |
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| | === Effect on Policy === | | === Effect on Policy === |
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| − | Swing state politics is having an enormous influence on policy: [[Obama]]'s abrupt change in [[deportation]] policy was probably the reason [[Mitt Romney]] reduced Obama's lead in the swing state of [[Colorado]], and narrowed the lead in [[Nevada]] and [[Virginia]], all of which have large [[Hispanic]] populations.<ref>https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/233037-obama-takes-action-on-deportations-as-romney-closes-gap-in-swing-states</ref> | + | Swing state politics has an enormous influence on policy: [[Obama]]'s abrupt change in [[deportation]] policy was probably the reason [[Mitt Romney]] reduced Obama's lead in the swing state of [[Colorado]], and narrowed the lead in [[Nevada]] and [[Virginia]], all of which have large [[Hispanic]] populations.<ref>https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/233037-obama-takes-action-on-deportations-as-romney-closes-gap-in-swing-states</ref> |
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| | ==2008 Swing States== | | ==2008 Swing States== |