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| | {{See also|2024 swing states}} | | {{See also|2024 swing states}} |
| | ''See [[early voting]] for an analysis of voting in swing states''. | | ''See [[early voting]] for an analysis of voting in swing states''. |
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| | '''Swing states''', also called "'''battleground states'''," are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support before a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the presidential election outcome in either direction. These states are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. In 2024 the top swing states are [[Arizona]], [[Georgia]], and [[Wisconsin]], and the Republican can win nationally by capturing all three. [[Michigan]] has become a swing state for 2024 due to [[Biden]]'s push for job-eliminating [[electric vehicles]], and [[Nevada]] is also considered a swing state this cycle.<ref>https://www.aol.com/news/four-swing-states-determine-2024-172546726.html</ref> According to [[CNN]] as of September 4, 2023: | | '''Swing states''', also called "'''battleground states'''," are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support before a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the presidential election outcome in either direction. These states are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. In 2024 the top swing states are [[Arizona]], [[Georgia]], and [[Wisconsin]], and the Republican can win nationally by capturing all three. [[Michigan]] has become a swing state for 2024 due to [[Biden]]'s push for job-eliminating [[electric vehicles]], and [[Nevada]] is also considered a swing state this cycle.<ref>https://www.aol.com/news/four-swing-states-determine-2024-172546726.html</ref> According to [[CNN]] as of September 4, 2023: |
| | {{cquote|all the analysts agree that Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, three states that flipped from [[Trump]] in 2016 to [[Biden]] in 2020, remain toss ups. They also agree that [[Michigan]], [[Nevada]], and [[Pennsylvania]], which Biden won, and [[North Carolina]], which backed Trump, are likely to remain at least somewhat competitive.<ref>https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/04/politics/2024-presidential-race-labor-day/index.html</ref>}} | | {{cquote|all the analysts agree that Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, three states that flipped from [[Trump]] in 2016 to [[Biden]] in 2020, remain toss ups. They also agree that [[Michigan]], [[Nevada]], and [[Pennsylvania]], which Biden won, and [[North Carolina]], which backed Trump, are likely to remain at least somewhat competitive.<ref>https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/04/politics/2024-presidential-race-labor-day/index.html</ref>}} |
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| | In the 2018 mid-terms, Florida voters replaced a Democratic Senator (Bill Nelson) with a Republican one (the term-limited Governor, [[Rick Scott]]), and maintained the Governor's office for the Republicans ([[Ron DeSantis]]). | | In the 2018 mid-terms, Florida voters replaced a Democratic Senator (Bill Nelson) with a Republican one (the term-limited Governor, [[Rick Scott]]), and maintained the Governor's office for the Republicans ([[Ron DeSantis]]). |
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| − | [[Florida]] was crucial to Trump's victory in 2016, when he won by just 1% of the vote.<ref>[https://www.270towin.com/states/Florida 270towin Florida], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Polling as of early November 2020 showed Joe Biden leading in the state by approximately one point, within the margin of error, as Fox 35, Trafalgar, and Susquehanna showed small leads for Trump compared to Rasmussen showing a small lead for Biden.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html RealClearPolitics Florida], retrieved November 3, 2020</ref> Ultimately Trump won the state of Florida by more than three points; his increase from 2016 was largely due to an increase in support among Cuban-Americans, enabling him to receive 46% of the vote in [[Miami]]-Dade County and helping bring his overall vote total to 51%.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-florida.html New York Times election results 2020 Florida], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/03/florida-election-results-president-analysis-trump-biden-impact/6085513002/ "Trump wins Florida: Gets boost by strong turnout by Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County"], Palm Beach Post, retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> | + | [[Florida]] was crucial to Trump's victory in 2016, when he won by just 1% of the vote.<ref>[https://www.270towin.com/states/Florida 270towin Florida], retrieved August 28, 2020.</ref> Polling as of early November 2020 showed Joe Biden leading in the state by approximately one point, within the margin of error, as Fox 35, Trafalgar, and Susquehanna showed small leads for Trump compared to Rasmussen showing a small lead for Biden.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html RealClearPolitics Florida], retrieved November 3, 2020</ref> Ultimately Trump won the state of Florida by more than three points; his increase from 2016 was largely due to an increase in support among Cuban-Americans, enabling him to receive 46% of the vote in [[Miami]]-Dade County and helping bring his overall vote total to 51%.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-florida.html New York Times election results 2020 Florida], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/03/florida-election-results-president-analysis-trump-biden-impact/6085513002/ "Trump wins Florida: Gets boost by strong turnout by Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County"], Palm Beach Post, retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> |
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| | ===Michigan=== | | ===Michigan=== |
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| | No excuse is required for an absentee ballot in the state.<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020/ FiveThirtyEight Project: How to Vote 2020], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> | | No excuse is required for an absentee ballot in the state.<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020/ FiveThirtyEight Project: How to Vote 2020], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> |
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| − | Results proved to be highly controversial as Biden received 51% of the vote according to official results.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-michigan.html New York Times Michigan Election Results 2020], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> Investigations conducted by [[The Federalist]], among others, indicated that voter fraud had taken place in the Democratic Party stronghold of Wayne County.<ref>[https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/05/reports-of-election-fraud-keep-piling-up-in-michigan-whats-going-on/ Reports Of Election Fraud Keep Piling Up In Michigan. What’s Going On?], The Federalist, November 8, 2020</ref> American [[Mainstream Media]] outlets called the race for Biden despite these claims as Twitter censored President Trump's voicing of concerns.<ref>[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325067488695099397 "People were screaming STOP THE COUNT & WE DEMAND TRANSPARENCY"], Donald Trump Twitter, retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> | + | Results proved to be highly controversial as Biden received 51% of the vote according to official results.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-michigan.html New York Times Michigan Election Results 2020], retrieved November 8, 2020.</ref> Investigations conducted by [[The Federalist]], among others, indicated that voter fraud had taken place in the Democratic Party stronghold of Wayne County.<ref>[https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/05/reports-of-election-fraud-keep-piling-up-in-michigan-whats-going-on/ Reports Of Election Fraud Keep Piling Up In Michigan. What’s Going On?], The Federalist, November 8, 2020.</ref> American [[Mainstream Media]] outlets called the race for Biden despite these claims as Twitter censored President Trump's voicing of concerns.<ref>[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325067488695099397 "People were screaming STOP THE COUNT & WE DEMAND TRANSPARENCY"], Donald Trump Twitter, retrieved November 8, 2020.</ref> |
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| | ===[[North Carolina]]=== | | ===[[North Carolina]]=== |
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| | Change Research has shown a close race in [[Pennsylvania]] since mid-July.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html RealClearPolitics Pennsylvania], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Center for Politics wrote an article about the political situation of the state, emphasizing the state's shift to Trump in 2016. The article referred to Trump's "new coalition," comprising largely of small towns and cities outside of [[Philadelphia]]'s metropolitan area, which had leaned Democrat in the past but where Republicans have been making significant gains. The article claimed that Biden may be more appealing to those Democrat/former Democrat voters than Hillary Clinton.<ref>[http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-pennsylvania/ Cook, Rhodes. "States of Play: Pennsylvania"] ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> | | Change Research has shown a close race in [[Pennsylvania]] since mid-July.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html RealClearPolitics Pennsylvania], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Center for Politics wrote an article about the political situation of the state, emphasizing the state's shift to Trump in 2016. The article referred to Trump's "new coalition," comprising largely of small towns and cities outside of [[Philadelphia]]'s metropolitan area, which had leaned Democrat in the past but where Republicans have been making significant gains. The article claimed that Biden may be more appealing to those Democrat/former Democrat voters than Hillary Clinton.<ref>[http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-pennsylvania/ Cook, Rhodes. "States of Play: Pennsylvania"] ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> |
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| − | A [[Rasmussen Reports]] poll conducted August 25-27 of 2020 showed Trump and Biden at 46 points each in the state.<ref>[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46 "Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 46%"] ''Rasmussen Reports'', retrieved September 7, 2020</ref> A poll conducted in early November by Trafalgar showed Trump and Biden with a point of each other in the state.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-1102/ Trafalgar Poll November], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> | + | A [[Rasmussen Reports]] poll conducted August 25-27 of 2020 showed Trump and Biden at 46 points each in the state.<ref>[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46 "Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 46%"] ''Rasmussen Reports'', retrieved September 7, 2020.</ref> A poll conducted in early November by Trafalgar showed Trump and Biden with a point of each other in the state.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-1102/ Trafalgar Poll November], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> |
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| | ===Wisconsin=== | | ===Wisconsin=== |
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| | In a statewide judicial election in early 2020, Republican Daniel Kelly lost by 11 points to Democrat Jill Karofsky.<ref name="States of Play Wisconsin" /> | | In a statewide judicial election in early 2020, Republican Daniel Kelly lost by 11 points to Democrat Jill Karofsky.<ref name="States of Play Wisconsin" /> |
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| − | [[Center for Politics]] has called Wisconsin "2020’s most vital state" and highlighted the importance of the cancellation of the live [[Democratic National Convention]], which was scheduled to take place in the state.<ref name="States of Play Wisconsin">[http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-wisconsin/ Coleman, J. Miles. "States of Play: Wisconsin"] Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Trafalgar Group showed Trump leading Biden by one point in [[Wisconsin]] in a poll conducted from August 14-23.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html RealClearPolitics Wisconsin], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/wi-pres-0820/ Trafalgar Poll], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 1st and 2nd showed Joe Biden ahead of Trump by eight points, 51-43, in the state.<ref>[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/wisconsin_biden_51_trump_43 Rasmussen Reports September 1-2 Wisconsin] retrieved September 7, 2020</ref> At the time this gave Biden a lead approximately four points higher than that of the RealClearPolitics average.<ref>[https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1302971498492317696 Rasmussen Reports Twitter], retrieved September 7, 2020</ref> | + | [[Center for Politics]] has called Wisconsin "2020’s most vital state" and highlighted the importance of the cancellation of the live [[Democratic National Convention]], which was scheduled to take place in the state.<ref name="States of Play Wisconsin">[http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-wisconsin/ Coleman, J. Miles. "States of Play: Wisconsin"] Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, retrieved August 28, 2020.</ref> Trafalgar Group showed Trump leading Biden by one point in [[Wisconsin]] in a poll conducted from August 14-23.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html RealClearPolitics Wisconsin], retrieved August 28, 2020.</ref><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/wi-pres-0820/ Trafalgar Poll], retrieved August 28, 2020.</ref> A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 1st and 2nd showed Joe Biden ahead of Trump by eight points, 51-43, in the state.<ref>[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/wisconsin_biden_51_trump_43 Rasmussen Reports September 1-2 Wisconsin] retrieved September 7, 2020</ref> At the time this gave Biden a lead approximately four points higher than that of the RealClearPolitics average.<ref>[https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1302971498492317696 Rasmussen Reports Twitter], retrieved September 7, 2020</ref> |
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| | ===Other states=== | | ===Other states=== |
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| | |Leaning to Obama. | | |Leaning to Obama. |
| | |4.6% | | |4.6% |
| − | |Ohio voted Republican in the 2010 elections, but the public unions repealed the collective bargaining reforms by popular vote. This indicates heavy union influence, a plus for Obama as unions vote heavily Democratic. As of September 13, 2012, Romney (46%) and Obama (47%) were virtually tied.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president Election 2012: Ohio President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Ohio voted Republican in the 2010 elections, but the public unions repealed the collective bargaining reforms by popular vote. This indicates heavy union influence, a plus for Obama as unions vote heavily Democratic. As of September 13, 2012, Romney (46%) and Obama (47%) were virtually tied.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president Election 2012: Ohio President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
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| | |Leaning to Obama. | | |Leaning to Obama. |
| | |9.5% | | |9.5% |
| − | |Mitt Romney leads Obama 47% to 44% as of September 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/election_2012_iowa_president Election 2012: Iowa President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Mitt Romney leads Obama 47% to 44% as of September 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/election_2012_iowa_president Election 2012: Iowa President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
| | |6 | | |6 |
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| | |Toss-up | | |Toss-up |
| | |9% | | |9% |
| − | |[[Pro-life]], pro-[[Christian]] [[Tim Tebow]]'s phenomenal success for the Denver Broncos helped improve the culture there. As of September 2012, Romney leads Obama, 47% to 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/colorado/election_2012_colorado_president Election 2012: Colorado President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |[[Pro-life]], pro-[[Christian]] [[Tim Tebow]]'s phenomenal success for the Denver Broncos helped improve the culture there. As of September 2012, Romney leads Obama, 47% to 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/colorado/election_2012_colorado_president Election 2012: Colorado President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
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| | |Leaning to Romney. | | |Leaning to Romney. |
| | |6% | | |6% |
| − | |Elected a Republican governor, [[Bob McDonnell]], in 2009. In the 2011 elections the [[Republican Party]] took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature. A Rasmussen Reports survey of Virginia taken September 14 gave Obama a 1-point lead, 49% to 48%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president Election 2012: Virginia President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Elected a Republican governor, [[Bob McDonnell]], in 2009. In the 2011 elections, the [[Republican Party]] took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature. A Rasmussen Reports survey of Virginia taken September 14 gave Obama a 1-point lead, 49% to 48%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president Election 2012: Virginia President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
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| | |Likely Romney | | |Likely Romney |
| | |2.8% | | |2.8% |
| − | |Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor [[Rick Scott]] is currently (August 2012) very unpopular in the state. Obama's approval in the state is below 50%. Florida is a must-win for Romney;<ref>http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/sept-11-florida-a-true-must-win-for-romney/</ref> however, as of September 13, 2012, Obama held a 2-point lead, 48% to 46%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president Election 2012: Florida President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor [[Rick Scott]] is currently (August 2012) very unpopular in the state. Obama's approval in the state is below 50%. Florida is a must-win for Romney;<ref>http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/sept-11-florida-a-true-must-win-for-romney/</ref> however, as of September 13, 2012, Obama held a 2-point lead, 48% to 46%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president Election 2012: Florida President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
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| | |Leaning to Obama. | | |Leaning to Obama. |
| | |9.6% | | |9.6% |
| − | |Romney has some roots here and was governor of nearby Massachusetts. He holds a 3-point lead (48% to 45%) over Obama, as of September 19, 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president Election 2012: New Hampshire President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Romney has some roots here and was governor of nearby Massachusetts. He holds a 3-point lead (48% to 45%) over Obama, as of September 19, 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president Election 2012: New Hampshire President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
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| | |Likely Romney, due to Obama's support of [[same-sex marriage]]. | | |Likely Romney, due to Obama's support of [[same-sex marriage]]. |
| | |0.3% | | |0.3% |
| − | |The current [[Democratic]] governor, [[Bev Perdue]], is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. Rasmussen's poll on September 14, 2012, had Romney at 51% to Obama's 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president Election 2012: North Carolina President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |The current [[Democratic]] governor, [[Bev Perdue]], is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. Rasmussen's poll on September 14, 2012, had Romney at 51% to Obama's 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president Election 2012: North Carolina President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
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| | |Leaning to Obama. | | |Leaning to Obama. |
| | |12.5% | | |12.5% |
| − | |A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for [[Republican]] [[Mark Amodei]]. [[Harry Reid]] won reelection in 2010 despite [[Tea Party]] opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. As of September 20, 2012, Obama leads Romney 47% to 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/nevada/election_2012_nevada_president Election 2012: Nevada President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for [[Republican]] [[Mark Amodei]]. [[Harry Reid]] won reelection in 2010 despite [[Tea Party]] opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. As of September 20, 2012, Obama leads Romney 47% to 45%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/nevada/election_2012_nevada_president Election 2012: Nevada President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
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| | |Toss-up | | |Toss-up |
| | |13.9% | | |13.9% |
| − | |Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their [[labor union]] allies, they failed to recall enough republican legislators for a majority, and failed to defeat Justice David Prosser in the Supreme Court election. The final blow that put Wisconsin in play for the 2012 election was when Governor Scott Walker defeated his recall election by a wider margin than he was originally elected in 2010. The selection of Wisconsin Congressman [[Paul Ryan]] as Romney's running mate may also help him in Wisconsin and vie-presidential nominees tend to boost the ticket in their home state. While Romney did receive a bump after his choice of Ryan, as of September 2012, he was slightly trailing Obama, 46% to 49%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president Election 2012: Wisconsin President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their [[labor union]] allies, they failed to recall enough republican legislators for a majority, and failed to defeat Justice David Prosser in the Supreme Court election. The final blow that put Wisconsin in play for the 2012 election was when Governor Scott Walker defeated his recall election by a wider margin than he was originally elected in 2010. The selection of Wisconsin Congressman [[Paul Ryan]] as Romney's running mate may also help him in Wisconsin and vie-presidential nominees tend to boost the ticket in their home state. While Romney did receive a bump after he chose Ryan, as of September 2012, he was slightly trailing Obama, 46% to 49%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president Election 2012: Wisconsin President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
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| | |} | | |} |
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| | |Michigan | | |Michigan |
| | |16% | | |16% |
| − | |Mitt Romney, though not ideal for the average conservative, grew up in Michigan and could put it into play. His father, [[George Romney]], served as governor of the state. Obama is ahead of Romney 48% to 42%, as of Rasmussen's last poll, taken in July 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/michigan/election_2012_michigan_president Election 2012: Michigan President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | |Mitt Romney, though not ideal for the average conservative, grew up in Michigan and could put it into play. His father, [[George Romney]], served as the governor of the state. Obama is ahead of Romney 48% to 42%, as of Rasmussen's last poll, taken in July 2012.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/michigan/election_2012_michigan_president Election 2012: Michigan President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
| | |16 | | |16 |
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| | |Pennsylvania | | |Pennsylvania |
| | |10% | | |10% |
| − | |Obama's has had high disapproval ratings here: 54%, and [[Republicans]] swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against [[Hillary Clinton]].<ref>[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1653 Quinnipiac poll done late September 2011]</ref> As of September 21, 2012, Obama leads Romney by a 51% to 39% margin.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president Election 2012: Pennsylvania President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> | + | | Obama has had high disapproval ratings here: 54%, and [[Republicans]] swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against [[Hillary Clinton]].<ref>[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1653 Quinnipiac poll done late September 2011]</ref> As of September 21, 2012, Obama leads Romney by a 51% to 39% margin.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president Election 2012: Pennsylvania President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref> |
| | |20 | | |20 |
| | |} | | |} |