Changes

Sen. [[Thom Tillis]] (R-NC) has declined to run for reelection in the [[swing state]] of [[North Carolina]] to avoid a likely defeat.  Trump won this state by 50.9% to 47.7%.

Sen. [[Thom Tillis]] (R-NC) has declined to run for reelection in the [[swing state]] of [[North Carolina]] to avoid a likely defeat.  Trump won this state by 50.9% to 47.7%.

In Texas incumbent Senator [[John Cornyn]] was defeated in a primary runoff by Texas Attorney General [[Ken Paxton]].  Early polls have Paxton in a tight race with Democrat [[James Talarico]].  A [[Libertarian Party]] candidate, Ted Brown, is also running; polls have him between 1-4% of the vote.  Talarico's chances of flipping the seat blue depend on whether Cornyn's voters decide to vote for Paxton or sit the race out.

In Texas incumbent Senator [[John Cornyn]] was defeated in a primary runoff by Texas Attorney General [[Ken Paxton]].  Early polls have Paxton in a tight race with Democrat [[James Talarico]].  A [[Libertarian Party]] candidate, Ted Brown, is also running; polls have him between 1-4% of the vote.  Talarico's chances of flipping the seat blue depend on whether Cornyn's voters decide to vote for Paxton, vote for Talarico or Brown, or sit the race out.

The widely cited [[Cook Political Report]] stated as of October 2025 that there are only 4 tossup seats, 2 held by [[Dem]]s ([[Georgia]] and [[Michigan]]) and 2 held by [[Republican]]s ([[Maine]] and [[North Carolina]]).<ref>https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings</ref>

The widely cited [[Cook Political Report]] stated as of October 2025 that there are only 4 tossup seats, 2 held by [[Dem]]s ([[Georgia]] and [[Michigan]]) and 2 held by [[Republican]]s ([[Maine]] and [[North Carolina]]).<ref>https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings</ref>