Talk:Postsecularism and New Zealand in the 21st century

Mr. New Zealander who sent me a message: What happened in Europe will happen in NZ. The lukewarm liberal Christianity will bleed out, while the resilient conservative Christianity will make steady gains due to their higher fertility rate and retention rates. Protestant Europe and France hit peak secular about a decade ago.

Frankly, you are being very illogical.

Here is my logic and it is very simple:

1. The fertility rate in NZ is below replacement level of 2.1 births per woman and dropping and was 1.87 births per woman (2016).

2. Historically, it is very hard to reverse below replacement levels of births without a religious resurgence.

3. Countries with below replacement levels of births eventually have to have immigration and invariably do.

4. The world is becoming more religious and less atheistic/nonreligious and even Wikipedia now recognizes this.

5. If NZ has immigration and the world is becoming more religious and not less, the liberal Christianity largely bleeds out and the resilient religion keeps making gains, the net effect in the 21st century is that NZ will become postsecular.

6. Look at the title of the article. Postsecularism in the 21st century. Last time I checked, the century is not over. Kaufmann believes the secular population of Europe will plateau sometime between 2021 and 2050. I believe the same about NZ and so does the scholarship I cited. On top of this, biblical/pentecostal Christianity generally surges in tough economic times and the world's developed nations have record amounts of debt. Eventually, this economic balloon will pop and the toughest economic times of our lifetime will invariably occur. If history is any guide, biblical/pentecostal Christianity will see more rapid growth.

7. You have yet to tell me how secular NZ is going to last past 2050. Until you do that, I will remain unimpressed. You have yet to show me a single iota of scholarship indicating that NZ will stay secular beyond 2050. I doubt you ever will. And in the unlikely event you do, it will probably be junk scholarship. By the way, "No religion" or Nones are not atheist.

I hope this clarifies things for you.Wikignome72 (talk) 01:52, 26 September 2019 (EDT)

Further explanation

This is what will happen to NZ

Concerning the future of religion/secularism in Europe, professor Eric Kaufmann wrote: "We have performed these unprecedented analyses on several cases. Austria offers us a window into what the future holds. Its census question on religious affiliation permits us to perform cohort component projections, which show the secular population plateauing by 2050, or as early as 2021 if secularism fails to attract lapsed Christians and new Muslim immigrants at the same rate as it has in the past. (Goujon, Skirbekk et al. 2006).

This task will arguably become far more difficult as the supply of nominal Christians dries up while more secularisation-resistant Muslims and committed rump Christians comprise an increasing share of the population."

My commentary: The "rump"/tougher Christians are the evangelical/conservatives/pentecostal Christians in Europe/NZ who are growing and have been for some time. They have above replacement level of births. They also evangelize liberal Christians to conservative Christians but obviously less and less of that will happen as liberal Christianity dies out. Obviously, the secular and conservative christianity populations cannot recruit people out of a dying liberal christianity population forever.

On the other hand, you are arguing (either directly or indirectly out of not thinking things through or willfully refusing to see it) for some strange reason that the liberal Christianity will die out forever. But things don't die forever. Eventually, things that are dying disappear or became very rare but stabilize.

Below is the population that is likely to also grow and become part of the NZ population as the below level of replacement level of fertility among irreligious/nonreligious/liberal Christianity in NZ virtually guarantees it:

On December 23, 2012, Professor Eric Kaufmann who teaches at Birbeck College, University of London wrote: "I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British." "Wikignome72 (talk) 09:22, 26 September 2019 (EDT)

My additional commentary:

Just like London and other big cities is a bellwhether on what will likely happen to Britain in the future in terms of religion vs. irreligion/nonreligion, Auckland is a bellwhether on what will happen in NZ as Auckland is a magnet for immigrants. Here is what is happening in Auckland demographically: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Auckland

Now obviously, there are going to be some differences on the rate of future desecularization in Europe vs. NZ. So the secular population in Europe vs. NZ may happen at different times. But both are going to peak in the 21st century and then we will see an overall trend of desecularization.Wikignome72 (talk) 10:00, 26 September 2019 (EDT)

Further commentary:

Here is the future of NZ in terms of the forseeable future population growth:

"New Zealand’s population change is a result of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration (international migrant arrivals minus departures).

“Net migration has been the main driver of population growth in recent years, reaching a peak of 72,400 migrants in the July 2017 year,” population insights senior manager Brooke Theyers said.

“However, natural increase continues to contribute around 30,000 people a year.”"[1]

And recall this info:

On December 23, 2012, Professor Eric Kaufmann who teaches at Birbeck College, University of London wrote: "I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British." Wikignome72 (talk)

Further commentary:

Mr. New Zealander Mr. New Zealander, you wrote: "You say I don't see the growth of evangelical/conservative Christianity in NZ slowing anytime soon. What growth? It has clearly and unambiguously been shrinking consistently. It hasn't grown at all."

You are absolutely wrong and maybe you are reading the stats from right to left and assuming the more recent stats are on the right, but that is not the case here as the most recent stats are on the left at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_New_Zealand#Religious_affiliation_statistics

Clearly, these groups are growing as time has gone on: evangelicals/born again/fundamentalists, pentecostals, Hindus, Sihks and Muslims. These groups have shown a trend of growth due to above average fertility rates, immigration and evangelism (evangelism when it comes to evangelicals/born again/fundamentalists, pentecostals and perhaps Muslims). Wikignome72 (talk) 10:41, 26 September 2019 (EDT)

Read each stat from 2001 to 2018 in their associated boxes for evangelicals/born again/fundamentalists, pentecostals, Hindus, Sihks and Muslims at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_New_Zealand#Religious_affiliation_statistics .Wikignome72 (talk) 11:13, 26 September 2019 (EDT)

Future of world and NZ

According to the leading and most knowledgeable scholars/thinktanks/etc., below is the future of the world projected out to 2100 and hence NZ because of immigration because immigration will likely have a significant effect on NZ in the future given its below replacement level of fertility. However, Muslim fertility rates have been dropping in the world and there is growing anti-Muslim in Europe/West (maybe Reconquista 2.0 may happen in Europe in terms of the Muslims. In other words, they may be asked to voluntarily leave and/or be driven out. Europe has had a bloody past when it comes to Muslims/Jews and both groups had incidences where they were driven out (or killed) in the past. Right now, anti-semitism is unfortunately growing in Europe due to Muslims, anti-semitism growing in the world, etc. And the economic future of Europe is not exactly great and when the economic chips are down, violence can certainly occur towards European Muslims in the future) so I will add those caveats.

In 2012, the W. Edwards Deming Institute published a report by the World Future Society which indicated:

“

In 2100, however, the world will likely be only 9% unaffiliated — more religious than in 2012. The peak of the unaffiliated was in 1970 at around 20%, largely due to the influence of European communism. Since communism’s collapse, religion has been experiencing resurgence that will likely continue beyond 2100. All the world’s religions are poised to have enormous numeric growth (with the exceptions of tribal religions and Chinese folk religion), as well as geographic spread with the continuation of migration trends. Adherents of the world’s religions—perhaps particularly Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists—will continue to settle in the formerly Christian and ever-expanding cities of Europe and North America, causing increases of religious pluralism in these areas. Christians and Muslims together will encompass two-thirds of the global population—more than 7 billion individuals. In 2100, the majority of the world’s 11.6 billion residents will be adherents of religious traditions.

”

Pew Research indicates: "By 2055 to 2060, just 9% of all babies will be born to religiously unaffiliated women, while more than seven-in-ten will be born to either Muslims (36%) or Christians (35%)."

The prominent historian Sir Diarmaid MacCulloch, professor of the History of the Church at Oxford University, indicates that he believes Christianity faces a "bright future" worldwide (See also: Global Christianity).

According to MacCulloch, "Christianity, the world's largest religion, is rapidly expanding – by all indications, its future is very bright."

The prominent historian Sir Diarmaid MacCulloch, professor of the History of the Church at Oxford University, indicates that he believes Christianity faces a "bright future" worldwide (See also: Global Christianity).

According to MacCulloch, "Christianity, the world's largest religion, is rapidly expanding – by all indications, its future is very bright."

In 2012, the Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary (GCTS) reported that every day there are 83,000 more people professing to be Christians per day, 800 less atheists per day, 1,100 less non-religious (agnostic) people per day.

Phillip Jenkins published the book The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity.

Chuck Colson, citing the work of Jenkins, writes:

“

As Penn State professor Philip Jenkins writes in The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity, predictions like Huntingtons betray an ignorance of the explosive growth of Christianity outside of the West. For instance, in 1900, there were approximately 10 million Christians in Africa. By 2000, there were 360 million. By 2025, conservative estimates see that number rising to 633 million. Those same estimates put the number of Christians in Latin America in 2025 at 640 million and in Asia at 460 million. According to Jenkins, the percentage of the worlds population that is, at least by name, Christian will be roughly the same in 2050 as it was in 1900. By the middle of this century, there will be three billion Christians in the world -- one and a half times the number of Muslims. In fact, by 2050 there will be nearly as many Pentecostal Christians in the world as there are Muslims today.

”

Christianity: World's most geographically diverse religion

In terms of its geographic distribution, Christianity is the most globally diverse religion. Christianity has recently seen explosive growth outside the Western World.

In 2000, there were twice as many non-Western Christians as Western Christians. In 2005, there were four times as many non-Western Christians as there were Western World Christians. There are now more non-Western missionaries than Western missionaries. See also: Global scope of indigenous evangelical Christianity evangelism

Global scope of indigenous evangelical Christianity evangelism

Peter L. Berger in his book The Desecularization of the World: Resurgent Religion and World Politics wrote:

“

The origins of this worldwide Evangelical upsurge are in the United States from which the missionaries first went out. But it is very important to understand that, virtually everywhere and emphatically in Latin America, this new Evangelicalism is thoroughly indigenous and no longer dependent on support from U.S. fellow believers-indeed, Latin American Evangelicals have been sending missionaries to the Hispanic communiry in this country where there has been a comparable flurry of conversions. Needless to say, the religious contents of the Islamic and Evangelical revivals are totally different. So are the social and political conscquences (of which I will say more later). But the two developments also differ in another very important respect: The Islamic movement is occurring primarily in countries that are already Muslim or among Muslim emigrants (as in Europe), while the Evangelical movement is growing dramatically throughout the world in countries where this type of religion was previously unknown or very marginal.

”

Rapid growth of evangelical Christianity and pentecostalism

Mexican Pentecostal church service.

See also: Growth of global desecularization and Global Christianity

The American Spectator, writing in 2011 about research published in the International Bulletin of Missionary Research, declared:

“

The report estimates about 80,000 new Christians every day, 79,000 new Muslims every day, and 300 fewer atheists every day. These atheists are presumably disproportionately represented in the West, while religion is thriving in the Global South, where charismatic Christianity is exploding."

”

The World Christian Database estimates the number of Evangelicals at 300 million individuals, Pentecostals and Charismatics at 600 million individuals and "Great Commission" Christians at 700 million individuals. These Christian groups are not mutually exclusive. Operation World estimates the number of Evangelicals at 550 million individuals.

High growth of pentecostalism

The American sociologist and author Peter L. Berger introduced the concept of desecularization in 1999. According to Berger, "One can say with some confidence that modern Pentecostalism must be the fastest growing religion in human history."

Pentecostalism has experienced explosive growth for the past half-century. The membership is young and fast-growing.

In 2011, a Pew Forum study of worldwide Christianity found that there were about 279 million classical Pentecostals, making 4 percent of the total world population and 12.8 percent of global Christendom Pentecostal.Wikignome72 (talk) 11:34, 26 September 2019 (EDT)

Quick key point for emphasis

I will comment on this recent/new info I gave you.

I cited this:

"New Zealand’s population change is a result of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration (international migrant arrivals minus departures).

“Net migration has been the main driver of population growth in recent years, reaching a peak of 72,400 migrants in the July 2017 year,” population insights senior manager Brooke Theyers said.

“However, natural increase continues to contribute around 30,000 people a year.”"[2]

Most of the population growth in NZ is obviously occuring via immigration which is not surprising given NZ's below replacement level of births.

Even Wikipedia recognizes that globally the irreligious/nonreligious population is dropping as a percentage of the world.

Given that you have not given me any scholarship, etc. showing that the secular population will not plateau before 2050 in NZ and will certainly not plateau before 2100 and you have not shown me the existence of any storks that are delivering irreligious/nonreligious babies to NZ resdients who have below replacement levels of fertility, your stubborn refusal to admit the obvious is certainly due to pride and willful ignorance. Now please feel free to prattle on about your alleged good looks or other irrelevant information as a means to salvage your overinflated ego.Wikignome72 (talk) 12:45, 26 September 2019 (EDT)

Another key point

Mr. New Zealander

Mr. New Zealander, you wrote: "Christianity has been dying in NZ consistently for 50 years."

Liberal Christianity is faux Christianity and is dying throughout the world. Why is it fake? For example, a man was made an Anglican bishop in Britain who denied the resurrection of Jesus. Denying the resurrection of Jesus obviously makes you a faux Christian.

From The Guardian concerning Britain:

"I knew David Jenkins a bit, and liked him. I am friends with two of his children. But the point is that I don’t think I’ve ever known anyone whose public image was more at variance with their private self. What is interesting in this context is not the real man, but the unreal one – the Bishop Who Didn’t Believe a Word of It.

In the mid to late 1980s the bishop of Durham was a public figure in the way no church figure has quite managed since. He had been a wholly unknown theology lecturer when he went on a scarcely watched television programme to say that he didn’t believe in the literal truth of the virgin birth. He also said that the resurrection “was not just a conjuring trick with bones”. This was reported, with a dishonesty that is still astonishing, as “comparing the resurrection to a conjuring trick with bones”.

I should probably explain that “the resurrection” refers to the central Christian belief that Jesus was raised from the dead. A prime minister saying on the eve of the World Cup that football was extremely boring and they hoped England would lose quickly might carry the same emotional charge of treachery.

In Jenkins’ case, an Essex vicar raised £2,000 from his scandalised congregation to mount a campaign against Jenkins getting the job; the archbishop of York, John Habgood, went ahead and consecrated him a bishop anyway – and three days later York Minster was struck by lightning."[3]

If I am not mistaken, the insurance company did not pay out in terms of damage to this Anglican church due to it being an "act of God" - namely lightning.

There you have it. God himself believes liberal Christianity is non-Christian!

But feel free to crow on about the non-victory of NZ atheists over NZ Christendom. Evangelical/born again/pentecostal Christianity continues to grow in NZ and I provided sound evidence of this matter (see: Irreligion in New Zealand ) and on this talk page.Wikignome72 (talk) 13:09, 26 September 2019 (EDT)

I do recognize that there are conservative Christian congregrations with Anglicanism, but at least in the Western World, I believe they are in the minority.Wikignome72 (talk) 13:13, 26 September 2019 (EDT)

New Zealand, other aging populations in the developed world and desecularization

The article Developed countries may become more religious in 20 years indicates:

“

Researchers from HSE University and RANEPA found that in high-income countries, age, rather than the cohort effect, has more impact on religiosity. They predict that this may have an impact on societal structure in the future. The study was published in Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion. It has long been observed that older people tend to be more religious than younger people. However, it is still disputable whether this fact should be attributed to people generally becoming more religious with age per se (age effect), or to the process of secularization, wherein earlier cohorts (to which the now older people belong) used to be more religious than those that appeared later, i.e. younger cohorts (cohort effect). HSE University scholars decided to analyze this issue using data from six waves of the World Values Survey (2016) in high-income OECD countries. A total of 16 countries were studied, including Australia, the USA, Canada, Great Britain, Israel, New Zealand, Japan, Germany, as well as other European countries. The researchers used logistic models and multiple linear regression to determine that the age effect has a higher impact on religiosity than the cohort effect. Older people are more inclined to believe in God, attend church, and believe it is important to instill religion in children.. The cohort effect impacts other factors analyzed by the scholars, such as church attendance and a belief in religion's importance in life, but the age effect still strongly prevails over the cohort effect... The transition from religious to secular values may slow by 2040 in high-income OECD countries and, probably, there will be a resurgence of religiosity, the symptoms of which can be observed in Japan. On the other hand, widely divergent socio-cultural settings in different countries have an impact on religious behavior and attitude, and this must be taken into account in further research.

”

2023: Stats NZ boss explains why this year's census survey could be the last

• Stats NZ boss explains why this year's census survey could be the last

This not a tragedy in terms of data collection. In the latter part of the 21st century or sooner, the steady or even explosive growth of religion in New Zealand will be so apparent that denialism will be impossible. See: Essay: Will New Zealand's secular population peak before or after 2050?. Conservative (talk) 00:32, June 1, 2024 (EDT)