Difference between revisions of "Essay: Why narcissists are terrible forecasters who can't improve their forecasting ability"
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Revision as of 04:08, February 25, 2024
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a 2016 book about forecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
The book reports on a wealth of data coming from the The Good Judgment Project (started in 2011) which indicates that well-chosen selected amateur forecasters who demonstrate their ability to accurately forecast are often more accurate than subject matter experts.[2]
The Harvard Business Review likened the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction to the book How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg.[3]
Narcissism is excessive love of oneself. The word is based on the Greek myth of Narcissus, who resisted the advances of a nymph and was consequently made to fall in love with his own reflection. In psychology, extreme narcissism is a symptom of Narcissistic personality disorder, in which a person overestimates his own abilities and attractiveness, at the expense of concern for the needs and feelings of others.
Question: Why are narcissists such terrible forecasters?
Personal characteristics of superforecasters according to the research from the Good Judgment Project
See also: Forecasting
Characteristics of "superforecasters":[4][5]
- Temperament: Cautious (Many things are uncertain), Humble (Reality is infinitely complex), Non-Determinist.
- Cognition: Open-Minded (Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected), Intelligent, Curious (Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges), Reflective (Introspective and self-critical), Numerate (Comfortable with numbers).
- Analytical: Pragmatic (Not wedded to any idea or agenda), Dragonfly-Eyed (Value diverse views and synthesize them into your own), Probabilistic, Thoughtful Updaters (When facts change, they change their minds), Intuitive Psychologist (Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive biases and emotional biases).
- Work Ethic: Growth Mindset, Grit (Determined to keep at it however long it takes)- ↑ "Unclouded vision". The Economist. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
- ↑ "Unclouded vision". The Economist. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
- ↑ Frick, Walter. "Question Certainty". Harvard Business Review. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
- ↑ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary
- ↑ Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills, Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock
