Difference between revisions of "Electoral College simulations"
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
(FiveThirtyEight predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. But while Biden leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three as he needs to prevail.) |
|||
| Line 4: | Line 4: | ||
{{cquote|Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. | {{cquote|Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. | ||
Biden wins 49 times out of 100. | Biden wins 49 times out of 100. | ||
| − | <br>There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/</ref>}} | + | <br>There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no [[Electoral College]] winner.<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/</ref>}} |
| − | Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in [[Wisconsin]], [[Michigan]], or [[Pennsylvania]]. But while [[Biden]] leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three as he needs to prevail. | + | Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in [[Wisconsin]], [[Michigan]], or [[Pennsylvania]]. But while [[Biden]] leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three [[swing state]]s as he needs to prevail. |
== References == | == References == | ||
{{reflist}} | {{reflist}} | ||
[[category:elections]] | [[category:elections]] | ||
[[category:politics]] | [[category:politics]] | ||
Revision as of 02:50, June 16, 2024
Electoral College simulations is the forecasting methodology used by FiveThirtyEight and The Hill for predicting the outcome of an upcoming election, such as the 2024 presidential election.
As of June 15, 2024, FiveThirtyEight said that:
| “ | Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Biden wins 49 times out of 100.
|
” |
Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. But while Biden leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three swing states as he needs to prevail.