Difference between revisions of "Electoral College simulations"
(The Hill gives Trump a 56% chance of winning the presidency, as of June 15, 2024, and predicts an Electoral College result of 279 votes for Trump and only 259 for Biden.) |
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'''Electoral College simulations''' is the forecasting methodology used by ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'' and ''[[The Hill]]'' for predicting the outcome of an upcoming election, such as the [[2024 presidential election]]. | '''Electoral College simulations''' is the forecasting methodology used by ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'' and ''[[The Hill]]'' for predicting the outcome of an upcoming election, such as the [[2024 presidential election]]. | ||
| + | == FiveThirtyEight == | ||
As of June 15, 2024, ''FiveThirtyEight'' said that: | As of June 15, 2024, ''FiveThirtyEight'' said that: | ||
{{cquote|Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. | {{cquote|Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. | ||
Biden wins 49 times out of 100. | Biden wins 49 times out of 100. | ||
<br>There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no [[Electoral College]] winner.<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/</ref>}} | <br>There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no [[Electoral College]] winner.<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/</ref>}} | ||
| − | Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in [[Wisconsin]], [[Michigan]], or [[Pennsylvania]]. But while [[Biden]] leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three [[swing state]]s as he needs to prevail. | + | Interestingly, ''FiveThirtyEight'' predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in [[Wisconsin]], [[Michigan]], or [[Pennsylvania]]. But while [[Biden]] leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three [[swing state]]s as he needs to prevail. |
| + | |||
| + | == The Hill == | ||
| + | ''The Hill'' runs its own Electoral College predictive simulations: | ||
| + | {{cquote|These graphs represent the distribution of outcomes from 14,000,605 simulations of the Electoral College vote for Joe Biden and Donald Trump.<ref>https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/president/</ref>}} | ||
| + | ''The Hill'' gives Trump a 56% chance of winning the presidency, as of June 15, 2024, and predicts an Electoral College result of 279 votes for Trump and only 259 for Biden. | ||
== References == | == References == | ||
{{reflist}} | {{reflist}} | ||
[[category:elections]] | [[category:elections]] | ||
[[category:politics]] | [[category:politics]] | ||
Revision as of 03:02, June 16, 2024
Electoral College simulations is the forecasting methodology used by FiveThirtyEight and The Hill for predicting the outcome of an upcoming election, such as the 2024 presidential election.
FiveThirtyEight
As of June 15, 2024, FiveThirtyEight said that:
| “ | Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Biden wins 49 times out of 100.
|
” |
Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. But while Biden leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three swing states as he needs to prevail.
The Hill
The Hill runs its own Electoral College predictive simulations:
| “ | These graphs represent the distribution of outcomes from 14,000,605 simulations of the Electoral College vote for Joe Biden and Donald Trump.[2] | ” |
The Hill gives Trump a 56% chance of winning the presidency, as of June 15, 2024, and predicts an Electoral College result of 279 votes for Trump and only 259 for Biden.