Difference between revisions of "Financial Crisis of 2008"

Revision as of 03:25, October 13, 2008

The Financial Crisis of 2008 is an ongoing financial crisis centered in the United States and Western Europe, with reverberations around the world. Banks and financial companies have reported real losses of over one trillion dollars, and Paper losses of many trillions.^[1] Paper losses for owners of stock in major financial institution have been over 50%, and owners of some have lost 99% as major banks closed down. The stock market has declined 30%-50% in major countries and pension funds have large paper losses. Paper losses in real estate have been in the trillions; the average price of American houses fell 20%, with 30% and higher declines in California and Florida. However, thus far ordinary depositors with cash in the bank have suffered no losses. Owners of stocks in the 5000 largest U.S. corporations have paper losses of %8.4 trillion dollars in 2008, dropping to $12 trillion in October from $20 trillion in January 2008. In late September the crisis focused on liquidity--financial companies owned hundreds of billions of dollars of "toxic" securities, mostly based on U.S. mortgages; they could not sell the toxic securities because no one knew how much they were worth, and large scale loans between major institutions stopped flowing as the system lost liquidity and froze up. A $800 billion rescue plan became law in the U.S. October 3, but its impact will not be clear for a while. Meanwhile Europe's economic crisis continues to deteriorate, as trillions of dollars in losses accumulate there and in Russia, China and India.

Although an American presidential election is in its last month, candidates have not focused on the crisis. Both major parties blame the other for neglecting adequate regulation. Both the major party candidates have expressed anger at the crisis, and have promised extensive new regulations of the financial industry.

Causes

In The Trillion-Dollar Bank Shakedown That Bodes Ill for Cities, Howard Husock describes how the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 and the expansion in 1995 contributed to the Financial Crisis of 2008. ^[2]

In the early 2000s, U.S. interest rates were low and demand for housing was high, as housing prices soared, especially in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Mortgage companies and banks were very eager to lend at low rates, especially to people with mediocre credit who would not previously have been eligible for mortgages. The expectation was that rising house prices would cover the mortgage payments through refinancing. In addition, hundreds of billions of dollars poured into the U.S. from abroad, and financiers looked for imaginative ways to make a profit. They turned to real estate.

Americans owed some $10 trillion on their mortgages, most of which were sound with payments made on time. However financiers bundled the mortgages into very complicated packages called "collateralized debt obligations'^[3] or CDOs. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of CDO's were sold to banks, pension funds and financiers in the U.S. and Europe. Generally they borrowed cash to buy the CDOs. The risk was that if the CDO's declines in value, they would not be able to repay those loans. To minimize the risk, companies sold insurance called "credit default swaps" (CDS) to guarantee payment of the CDOs. The largest seller was American International Group (AIG), the world's largest insurance company. The CDOs and CDS were especially attractive because they were not regulated by the government; experts are not sure how many trillions of dollars are involved.

Many mortgages were held by mortgage companies like Countrywide and Washington Mutual, as well as investment banks such as Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, as well as commercial banking chains like Wachovia and Bank of America, which have thousands of local offices.

Bubble bursts

The housing "bubble" burst in 2006-07, as prices plunged downward in the Sunbelt. Many homeowners could not meet their payments, especially those who had "sub-prime" mortgages because their income was low, or who had adjustable rate mortgages where the monthly payments started small then escalated. Foreclosures skyrocketed. With housing prices falling few people risked buying a new house (because it would soon be worth less than they paid for it). Construction firms had built millions of new houses that could not be sold but which glutted the market.

The problem was that no one could figure out what CDOs were now worth, so very few were willing to buy them. One major investment bank, Merrill Lynch, sold its CDOs for 22 cents on the dollar--a "fire sale" price that was less than they were worth in the long run, because in the long run the great majority of people will make their scheduled mortgage payments.

2008 crises

Multiple crises started pulling down major financial players. Countrywide, which originated 20% of all American mortgages in 2006, collapsed and was bought up by Bank of America. Bear Stearns, a large investment bank, went under; the government arranged a sale to JPMorgan Chase; stock holders lost about 90% of their investment, and the confidence in other banks was undermined.

On September 7, 2008, the government took control of the two largest mortgage holders, "Fannie Mae"^[4] and "Freddie Mac"^[5]. The two had lost $15 billion on the $5.4 trillion in mortgages they owned, and their notes were widely held in China and many other countries. The fear was that if the Treasury did not act the world's confidence in the US financial system would collapse. However the rest of the world was in trouble too. The stock markets in China and Russia plunged 50%, and the British Treasury had to take over its largest mortgage company, Northern Rock. Vast sums of money flowed into the US because it was safer there than anywhere else.

By September the major banks were no longer lending money and most reported huge losses as they wrote down the value of the CDOs and other assets. Short sellers sold large amounts of stock in threatened companies, causing further panic and driving down share prices.^[6] Lehman Brothers, one of the oldest and largest banks in New York, went bankrupt on Sept. 15 with no one to rescue it. The collapse of Lehman had a multiplier effect worldwide, severely weakening other big banks and sharly increasing the level of fear and distrust inside the system that caused bankers to sharply reduce their lending. Merrill Lynch was sold to Bank of America for $50 billion, about half its value a few months before. Investors realized that AIG could no longer honor the insurance policies it wrote. It lost $13 billion in the first half of 2008 and its shares fell 95% in value. AIG was "too big" to be allowed to fail, so it was given an $85 billion loan from the government; in return the government received 80% of its stock. The government had to add another $38 billion to the AIG rescue in October.^[7] In effect AIG, along with Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac were nationalized. The Federal Reserve, with $800 billion in assets, was assisted by the Treasury, which gave it more funds.^[8]

European crises

Heavy borrowing by European banks meant the crisis immediately affected Britain and other countries as well, as the British housing bubble burst about the same time as the U.S. The British government had to take over major mortgage lenders, including Northern Rock in February, 2008. Northern Rock's loans (£25 billion) and guarantees (£30 billion) extended by the Bank of England, together with the value of the company's mortgages (£55 billion), or £100 billion in all, were added to the British national debt. Bradford & Bingley, half the size of Northern Rock, held £40 billion in toxic mortgages, and was nationalized in late September.

In late September, the Fortis bank, the world's 20th largest business, was partially nationalized by three governments who injected $16 billion in emergency funds. In 2007 Fortis borrowed heavily for its $100 billion takeover of rival bank ABN Amro; the deal came at the market’s peak, and Fortis now cannot pay its debts. The Belgian, Dutch and Luxembourg governments tried to inject capital but as consumer confidence plunged, Netherlands nationalized the Dutch wing of the company and the rest was sold in early October to the French bank BNP Paribas for €14.5 billion euros ($19 billion dollars).

In Germany Hypo Real Estate was given €50 billion euros ($68 billion dollars) bailout by the government. The government of Iceland took over its large banks, as the entire island economy verged on bankruptcy because it depended so much on large foreign loans. Most of the European countries hurriedly announced guarantees of personal bank deposits to avert further drop in consumer confidence and runs on the banks. Stock markets around the world continue to decline as pessimism worsens.

The European Central Bank aggressively lent money to banks trying to ensure that banks would have adequate cash. The moves have not reassured savers or investors, and European stock markets have fallen even further than the American stock markets, as have the stock markets in China and Russia. The leaders of France, Germany and Italy vowed to prevent a Lehman Brothers-style failure in Europe but they did not offer an American-style bailout package.^[9]

Britain on October 8 announced a gigantic £400 billion ($680 billion) rescue plan for its banks; the government would partially own them. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said banks would still be run by their old managers, but that the government would have to be "satisfied" on matters of salaries, dividends and lending activities. The money involved is about a third of Britain's annual GDP (comparable to $5 trillion in the U.S. economy.)

On October 13, Britain announced it would spend £50 ($85 billion) to nationalize two of the five largest banks, HBOS (Halifax Bank of Scotland) and RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland), while taking partial ownership of a third, Lloyds TSB. A fourth, Barclays will remain private if it can raise an additional £7 billion. The fifth, HSBC is based in Hong Kong and will remain private.^[10]

$700 billion bailout proposed

"We're in the midst of a serious financial crisis," President Bush warned the nation on Sept. 25, 2008.:

Major financial institutions have teetered on the edge of collapse, and some have failed. As uncertainty has grown, many banks have restricted lending. Credit markets have frozen. And families and businesses have found it harder to borrow money....without immediate action by Congress, America could slip into a financial panic, and a distressing scenario would unfold: More banks could fail, including some in your community. The stock market would drop even more, which would reduce the value of your retirement account. The value of your home could plummet. Foreclosures would rise dramatically. And if you own a business or a farm, you would find it harder and more expensive to get credit. More businesses would close their doors, and millions of Americans could lose their jobs. Even if you have good credit history, it would be more difficult for you to get the loans you need to buy a car or send your children to college. And ultimately, our country could experience a long and painful recession.^[11]

On September 19, 2008, the Treasury and Federal Reserve proposed a major rescue plan--the largest government intervention in the economy since World War II. The key was for the Treasury to purchase $700 billion of the CDOs. The assumption was that the underlying mortgages were mostly perfectly good in the long run, but that a short-run panic had destroyed the market for them and frozen the financial system. The bailout was needed, Bush said, to avert a major disaster for the economy. Democrats signed on to the bailout plan, adding provisions for Congressional oversight and caps on CEO compensation; but at the last moment on Sept 25, 2008 House Republicans said no, and GOP presidential nominee John McCain held off endorsement.

Conservatives were split on what to do. Many agreed with Bush that the bailout proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson was urgently needed. Large banks and corporations strongly endorsed the bailout. The American Bankers Association and the Mortgage Bankers Association are fighting against any amendment that would reduce mortgage obligations for people in bankruptcy, while directing all the government funds to the banking industry.The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, normally an outspoken advocate of big corporate interests, instead stressed the crisis's impact on small and midsize businesses. "We're looking at an economy that was slipping toward recession even before this crisis culminated in a market lockup last week," said Chamber economist Martin Regalia. The debate in Congress, he said, "is costing every American taxpayer money, directly."^[12] Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama endorsed the plan, as amended by Congressional Democrats. On the other hand, ordinary taxpayers and "Main Street", that is businessmen who operated at the local level, were highly suspicious of Wall Street. McCain, blaming the crisis on "the corruption and manipulation of our home mortgage system", rejected the bailout as a favor for Wall Street and little help to Main Street. Believers in the market economy insisted that the market should run its course, and opposed the bailout.^[13]

A compromise bailout was agreed to by leaders of both parties but the "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008" (EESA) was voted down in the House on Sept. 29. Democrats favored the Bush bill 60%-40%, but Republicans voted no by 65-35%. The stock market lost a trillion dollars in value in one day as uncertainty reigned. Finally a large majority passed an expanded bailout bill, that includes the $700 million to buy toxic securities, plus tax breaks and a rise in FDIC insurance to $250,000 from $100,000, designed to reassure ordinary depositors. As the Treasury starts operation of the actual bailout, no one is sure how it will operate or whether it will succeed.

Collapse of #6 and #4 largest banks

O)n Sept. 25, Washington Mutual, the 6th largest bank in the US with $310 billion in assets, went bankrupt after a run in which depositors withdrew $17 billion in a few days. Its stockholders lost all their money, the US government took it over (through the FDIC, which insures ordinary bank deposits), and resold it the same day to the biggest New York bank, JPMorgan Chase. It was the largest commercial bank failure in American history, by far.^[14]

Meanwhile the #4 U.S. bank, Wachovia, burdened by $120 billion in toxic securities,^[15] was bought out by Citigroup on Sept. 29 in a deal engineered by the FDIC. However Wachovia then broke its deal and merged into Wells Fargo. The result is that four major banks now dominate the American economy (Bank of America, Citibank, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo), along with dozens of regional chains and thousands of small local banks.

In early October, Bank of America, the new owner of Countrywide, reached a settlement with 11 states that sued it over fraudulent practices. The state of Illinois accused Countrywide of relaxing underwriting standards, structuring loans with risky features, and misleading consumers with hidden fees and fake marketing claims, like a false promise of a "no closing costs loan." Countrywide gave special incentives to its brokers for selling impossible loans by paying higher commissions on them. In reviewing one Illinois mortgage broker’s sales, the Illinois complaint said the "vast majority of the loans had inflated income, almost all without the borrower’s knowledge." Bank of America did not deny the charges and instead agreed to pay out $8.4 billion to 400,000 Countrywide customers. Countrywide will reduce principal balances for some people and cut interest rates for others. Rates for some people could decline to as low as 2.5% and remain at that level for five years. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and IndyMac, now all owned by the federal government, have begun their own programs to modify mortgage terms for some hard-pressed borrowers. ^[16]

See also

Henry M. Paulson Paper loss

notes

1. ↑ For most people the loss is a "paper" loss. If they bought stock in 2003 for $1000, watched it go to $1500 in 2008, then drop to $1000 again in 2008, their "paper loss" is $500 but their real loss is zero since they are back where they started. People who bought at $800 still have made a $200 paper profit. People who bought at $1200, say, have a paper loss of $200. The paper loss or gain becomes real when they finally sell the stock. See Paper loss for more details
2. ↑ The Trillion-Dollar Bank Shakedown That Bodes Ill for Cities, Howard Husock, City Journal, Winter 2000
3. ↑ That is, homeowners were obligated to pay the debts and the collateral behind them was the physical house.
4. ↑ Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA)
5. ↑ Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC)
6. ↑ The short sellers did not own the shares; the practice was stopped on Sept. 19, 2008, by the Securities and Exchange Commission because it destabilized markets.
7. ↑ Barry Meier and Mary Williams Walsh, "A.I.G. to get Additional $37.8 Billion," New York Times, Oct. 8, 2008
8. ↑ See Joe Nocera, "36 Hours of Alarm and Action as Crisis Spiraled," New York Times (Oct. 1, 2008)
9. ↑ Carter Dougherty, Nelson Schwartz and Floyd Norris, "Financial Crises Spread in Europe," New York Times, Oct 6, 2008
10. ↑ "Financial crisis: HBOS and RBS 'to be nationalised' in £50 billion state intervention," London Telegraph Oct 13, 2008 The existing stockholders were not bought out. They will continue to hold shares in the banks, but they will be outvoted by the new stock owned by the government.
11. ↑ see Bush speech online
12. ↑ Elizabeth Williamson, "Big Business Wants Deal, Setbacks and All," Wall Street Journal Sept. 26, 2008
13. ↑ See comments from a range of economists at Peter S. Goodman, "Credit Enters a Lockdown," New York Times Sept. 25, 2008
14. ↑ In the Great Depression, no major banks failed in any major cities, although over 6000 small neighborhood and rural banks went under; depositors eventually received on average 85% of their deposits.
15. ↑ At the height of the bubble in 2006 Wachovia purchased Golden West Financial, a California lender specializing in so-called pay-option mortgages that enabled people to buy houses for a much higher price than they could afford, hoping that rising house prices would allow them to refinance later.
16. ↑ Gretchen Morgenson, "Countrywide to Set Aside $8.4 Billion in Loan Aid," New York Times Oct. 6, 2008