User:Conservative/Forecasting

.

How much better are superforecasters than pundits, scholars and thinktanks? How can being a superforecaster increase stock returns? How much training is involved?

• How much better are superforecasters than thinktanks, scholars and pundits? What characteristics makes them better?

GDP Growth Forecasts by Country in 2024

• GDP Growth Forecasts by Country in 2024

Forecasts for various countries

• FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards 2023

• Focus Economics - Top economic forecast company, lots of data

Leading economic indicators for the USA

• Leading economic indicators for the USA, TradingEconomics.com

Economics

• Economics

What’s the relationship between the stock market and the economy?

• What’s the relationship between the stock market and the economy? - "There has never been a consistent relationship between the stock market and the economy. While the two tend to loosely move in the same direction, they often act in widely different ways – particularly over shorter time periods... The stock market is forward looking. The price you are willing to pay for a stock today is based on how well you and other investors expect the company to do in the future. By contrast, some economic data looks back at what has already happened."

• The stock market is not the economy and the economy is not the stock market.[1]

General forecasting

See also: Forecasting

• Philip Tetlock on forecasting and expert opinions

• Superforecasting - Philip Tetlock - Playlist

• Superforecasting Summary and Review by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

• The Peculiar Blindness of Experts - Key points: Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.

• Professor Philip Tetlock on His Groundbreaking Research About 'Expert Judgment' - video

Book

• Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Crown; F First Edition (September 29, 2015)

Economic forecasting

• Economic calendar

• The Austrian indictor

• Gross output

Yield curve

• What You Need to Know About the Inverted Yield Curve

• US Treasury yield curve

• Yield curve - Google search

• Inverted yield curve - Google search

Best economic forecasters

• Who are the best economic forecasters in terms of accuracy in terms of organizations and individuals? Has the Good Judgment Project ranked economic forecasters? If so, which are the best? Rank each economic forecaster organization on a score from 1 to 100 where 100 are the very best.

Best stock forecasters

• Which organizations, people and websites are the best stock forecasters in terms of accuracy? Rank them from 1 to 100 where 100 is the very best. Have the list put the top forecasters at the top of the list and use descending order, Grok 2025

The difficulty of long term economic forecasting for various companies/sectors/countries

• Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming - Warren Buffett

Difficulty of short term economic forecasting due to various factors

• Nobody Knows How Long Inflation Will Last. That’s Life., Niall Ferguson, 2022
• Has the War in Ukraine Destroyed Russia’s Economy?, Russia Matters, 2024 (Failed predictions: "All this goes to show how important it is to exercise caution and take a long view when making predictions of a country’s economic and financial fall (or rise, or stagnation), especially with so many variables at play, as is currently the case with a Top 10 economy, such as Russia’s.")

Economic forecasts and political forecasts

• Predicting the Future with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan

Forecasts for various years

2024

• Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2024, Visual capitalist
• Kiplinger Letter Forecast for 2024

Videos/podcast, investing/business/trends

• Investing, business, trends
• Valuetainment
• Motley Fool - Investing

Stock investing: Good opportunities

MOAT:

• MOAT: Nothing Better Than A Sustainable Competitive Advantage (The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF has outperformed the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF over the past 10 years.)

Investing in blue chip art:

• Investing in blue-chip art

• Masterworks on Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Books:

• Understanding Art by Lois Fichner-Rathus, Cengage Learning; 11th edition (January 1, 2016)
• How To Understand Art (Art Essentials) by Janetta Rebold Benton, Thames & Hudson (October 26, 2021)
• Foundations of Art and Design by Lois Fichner-Rathus, Wadsworth Publishing; 1st edition (February 16, 2007)

Angel investing study - 27% return - Kaufman study:

• Angel investing Kaufman study
• Historical returns in angel markets

Stock investing experts

Mark Lipias

Mark Lipacis: Out of more than 8,000 total analysts in the TipRanks database, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis is rated No. 1 based on his stock-picking track record over the past 10 years. Lipacis has an impressive 73% success rate on his stock ratings, and his 498 stock picks generated an average return of 30.3%.[2]

• Mark Lipacis's Stock Forecasts

• Mark Lipias - Stocks

• Mark Lipias

• Mark Lipias

Eric Fry

• Eric Fry
• Eric Fry - Global trends

Other Notable stock investment specialists

• Motley Fool, Zacks, Morningstar, Seeking Alpha – Which is the best investment service for you?

• The Motley Fool – Best Stock-Picking Service

• Seeking Alpha – Best Investment Research Website for Experienced Investors

• Morningstar – Best Data-Driven Investment Research Platform (especially for mutual funds and ETFs)

• Zacks – Best Supplementary Rating System

Motley Fool:

• Motley Fool

• Motley Fool Stock Advisory service

• Motly Fool premium services

Growth investor:

Louis Navellier:

• Louis Navellier - review

• Louis Navellier website

• Louis Navellier - Investor place

Tech investors:

• Produced in partnership with TrueBridge Capital Partners, the Midas List has long tracked venture capital’s ebbs and flows as the definitive ranking of the top 100 tech investors."- Forbes, 2023[3]

• The Midas list

• Brownstone Research and Investing Legend Jeff Brown Reveals Revolutionary "G.T.E." Technology and Jeff Brown - review

Quants: What They Do and How They've Evolved

• Quants: What They Do and How They've Evolved

Stock market direction indicators

Employment, Inflation, Consumer Activity and investor activity

• 4 Key Indicators That Move The Markets

St. Louis Federal Reserve's Financial Stress Index and Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index

• Two indicators on market direction

• St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index

• Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index (CFNAI} - Current Data

• Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index

VIX

• The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market. When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.

The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) creates and tracks an index know as the Volatility Index (VIX), which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index options.

• The Vix Index - Investopedia - The VIX is used as a contrary market indicator, how institutional sentiment can be measured by VIX, and why an understanding of the VIX tends to favor long and short puts.

KEY TAKEAWAYs

• The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market.
• When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.
• Buying when the VIX is high and selling when it is low is a strategy, but one that needs to be considered against other factors and indicators.

• VIX Chart

• Determining market direction with VIX

Cat Beats Professional Investment Managers Over Stock Picks

• Cat Picks Stocks Better Than Experts, 2013

• Cat Beats Professional Investment Managers Over Stock Picks, ABC News, 2013

General economic trend forecasting related info

Sources:

• Barron's online

• Mishtalk

• Global economic analysis

• Seeking Alpha

• Seeking Alpha - Macro View

• Jim Rogers blog

• Bill McBride - Calculated Risk - Google News

• Business Insider

• Economic Cycle Research Institute - reports

• Free advice - Robert Murphy blog

• Mises Media - YouTube

Economics mixed with right-wing political ideology:

• Daily Reckoning

America will suffer a great depression in 2030:

• ITR Economics

• ITR Economics - YouTube

• Leading Forecaster Predicts 2030 Global Depression Dr. Alan Beaulieu

Semi doom and gloomers:

Jim Rogers:

• Jim Rogers

Marc Faber:

• Gloom Boom and Doom - Marc Faber - Swiss investor based in Thailand

• Marc Faber - YouTube

Nouriel Roubini:

• Nouriel Roubini

Gary Shilling:

• Gary Shilling

Doom and gloomers:

• Economic collapse blog

Prediction markets

• Election betting odds

• Polymarket

• Predictit

• Insight Prediction

• 20 prediction markets

Great book on forecasting

Question: Did you know that is very doable to be a better forecaster in terms of politics, economics and other future events? There is a great book on this matter by the political science writer and political science professor Philip E. Tetlock entitled Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction which has some fascinating information. And the book has received a lot of positive reviews by various people involved in forecasting.

Political forecasting

1. Political expert forecasts

• Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip Tetlock - video (Critical thinkers did the best. They tried to falsify their notions/forecast)

• Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006)

2. Arthur C. Brooks wrote in his article Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being: "A 2012 survey conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University asked a sample of Americans about their news-consumption habits, and quizzed them about U.S. and international political and economic events. They found that those watching the most partisan television news sources—on both the left and the right—were often less knowledgeable about world events than those who consumed no news at all."

• At Least Bias Is Bipartisan: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Partisan Bias in Liberals and Conservatives - Perspectives on Psychological Science

• Psychological Features of Extreme Political Ideologies

3. Political betting markets have better accuracy than polls and pundits.

The Good Judgment Project (started in 2011) indicates that well-chosen selected amateur forecasters who demonstrate their ability to accurately forecast are often more accurate than subject matter experts.

Good forecasters vs. bad ones

International politics forecasters and their general accuracy

• When it comes to geopolitics predictions, how accurate are the predictions of thinktanks? Scholars? Pundits? Give me the probabilities that there forecacast will come true? Also, for big play forecasts, like predictions that will have big consequences, how accurate are those?, Grok, 2025