|
|
| Line 1: |
Line 1: |
| − | [[File:Flag of Ukraine.png|thumbnail|right|276px|The flag of Ukraine.]]
| + | ==Use the Minor edit button and do not clog up Recent Changes== |
| − | [[John Joseph Mearsheimer]], is an American political scientist and [[international relations]] scholar, who belongs to the [[realist school of international relations]] and teaches at the [[University of Chicago]].
| + | |
| | | | |
| − | Mearsheimer predicted the [[war]] in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wi_0oiZ7vU Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War])
| + | [[File:Use the button.PNG|1050px|]] |
| − | | + | |
| − | In July of 2023, Professor [[John Joseph Mearsheimer]] indicates that he believes that the will drag on for a considerable amount of time (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine]). Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out he has been wrong before about his predictions about world events, but points out that most of the international scholars agree with him on this point as far as the duration of this war lasting a significant amount of time.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | On August 23, 2023, ''Axios'' reported: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."<ref>[https://www.axios.com/2023/08/23/white-house-ukraine-war-aid-congress-support White House tells Ukraine, allies that Congress will back more war aid], Axios, 2023</ref>
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Also, any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]] and [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state. In addition, I predict that American/NATO taxpayers will continue to pay for this boondoggle with their tax money for several more years.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | While I would love for the [[Republican Party|Republicans]] to honor the wishes of its Republican base and cut aid to Ukraine and would like to be pleasantly surprised if they do, Professor Mearsheimer has correctly pointed out several times that the Republican Party doesn't listen to its base when it comes to foreign wars and the elites that are warhawks usually get their way.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7EOKBF1nbQ Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer | SpectatorTV]</ref> The military/industrial complex and its lobbyists usually prevail despite the wishes of the American public. Furthermore, for various reasons, such as Donald Trump arming the Ukrainians before the war in Ukraine (Stinger missiles, etc.), Meaersheimer is highly skeptical that if [[Donald Trump]] were to win the presidency in 2024 that he would end the war quickly (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7EOKBF1nbQ Would Trump really pull out of Ukraine? With John Mearsheimer]). I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.
| + | |
| − | [[File:Flag of Russia.png|right|thumbnail|275px|Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a [[pyrrhic victory]] (See: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]). ]] | + | |
| − | If Donald Trump (or some other Republican) is elected in 2024, maybe Donald Trump (or that Republican) will surprise me and strike a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as early as 2024 or 2025 (Long-shot events do sometimes happen as evidenced by anyone who has ever seen a black swan). But even if such a thing were accomplished, things it will be difficult to maintain and/or have flare up to some degree afterward.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Although I can potentially see the war in Ukraine ending in 2025 if Trump or another Republican is elected (Ukraine is not of vital national interest of the USA), it seems unlikely given the animosity between Russia/Ukraine now and other factors mentioned in the video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCLPxJ0wNhU INTERVIEW: John Mearsheimer On US Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine].
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer]). Once again, I agree with him on this point. He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZ_DZSHHRMc Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18]</ref> I also agree with Mearsheimer on this point.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.
| + | |
| − | == How long do post WWII wars last? Some relevant statistics. ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a [[bipartisan]], nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | The Center for Strategic and International Studies article ''How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine''
| + | |
| − | {{Cquote|Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>}}
| + | |
| − | [[File:Georgetown 2.jpg|thumbnail|center|300px|[[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>]]
| + | |
| − | {{Clear}}
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Russian defector reveals that a 'majority' of people inside the Kremlin are unhappy with the war in Ukraine ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ''See also:'' [[Essay: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?|Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-26/russia-defector-reveals-many-kremlin-members-unhappy-war-730/102526452 Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine], Australian Broadcasting Corporation, June 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmeZRN6YrN0 Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine], ABC News video, July 2023
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | [[File:Moscow Grand Kremlin Palace3.jpg|center|thumbnail|400px|The Grand Kremlin Palace is a building in the Moscow Kremlin.
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | The Moscow Kremlin is a fortified complex in the center of Moscow. The Moscow Kremlin now serves as the official residence of the Russian president and as a museum.]]
| + | |
| − | {{Clear}}
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31187/w31187.pdf Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy] by Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin, National Burea of Economic Research, Working Paper 31187, April 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Endgame for the Ukrainian War ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUHKa3JNkBQ An Endgame for the Ukrainian War w/ John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen], 9-9-2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | See: [[Essay: Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about|Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == The specific month of April 2022 was not a pivotal point in international politics that will affect international politics for 30 years ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years|The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in politics that will affect politics for 30 years]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Economic effects of the war on Russia ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ''See also:'' [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future|Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Russian oil and gas revenue is down ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Russia's economy is not highly diversified. It is too dependent on oil and gas. See: [[Essay: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines|Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas. China's economy is having significant problems compared to its past. If China's economy gets worse (And there is some evidence that China's future economy will may worse this decade and beyond), that is going to hurt the Russian economy.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | "Even the act of diverting supplies to Asia entails a significant reduction in Russian companies’ profit margins. It costs a lot more to transport oil to Asian markets than to Europe, and there is not much spare transport capacity, which pushes up the cost of freight, reducing the profit made by Russian companies, whatever the amount at which the price is capped.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | The price cap also enables Asian buyers to obtain big discounts on Russian oil. China and India may not officially be enforcing the cap, but it’s hard to imagine that companies from those countries will not use it to barter the price down. Indeed, this is already happening: some shipments to China due to be loaded onto tankers in January were sold at $5–6 cheaper per barrel than usual."<ref>[https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88639 Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?]</ref>
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-gas-budget-revenues-almost-halved-january-june-2023-07-05/ Russian oil and gas budget revenues almost halved in the first half of 2023], Reuters, 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [[File:Oil-barrel-black-hi.png|thumbnail|225px|center|Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy.
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas.<ref>[https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88639 Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?]</ref> ]]
| + | |
| − | {{Clear}}
| + | |
| − | [[File:Russian Monthly Oil Revenue from 2022 to July 2023.jpg|thumbnail|1000px|center|Russian monthly oil revenues from January 2022 to July 2023 (International Energy Agency estimates)<ref>[https://archive.md/ax8Sp#selection-4547.0-4547.60 Russia Oil Passes Price Cap as Export Revenue Hits 2023 High], Bloomberg News, August 11, 2023</ref>
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | In 2023, Russian oil revenues are considerably down from 2022.<ref>[https://archive.md/ax8Sp#selection-4547.0-4547.60 Russia Oil Passes Price Cap as Export Revenue Hits 2023 High], Bloomberg News, August 11, 2023</ref>]]
| + | |
| − | '''Countries with diversified economies are more resilient and stable:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Booz & Company was a global strategy consulting team established in the United States in 1914. The firm was acquired by PwC on April 4, 2014.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Below is the executive summary of their report entitled ''Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification''
| + | |
| − | {{Cquote|The effects of the recent global economic crisis were allpervasive, and demonstrated that no economy is safe from destabilizing external events. Resource-dependent countries, with their narrow base of economic activity, are particularly vulnerable, but all countries may have vulnerabilities stemming from a lack of diversification in one or more economic dimensions, and they must be more vigilant in managing risks to their economies. Not only must a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) be balanced among sectors, but key elements of its economy must be varied, flexible, and readily applicable to a variety of economic opportunities, and areas of overconcentration must continually be identified and mitigated. Policymakers should work to achieve greater economic diversification, in order to reduce the impact of external events and foster more robust, resilient growth over the long term.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | For resource-rich, developing economies, the immediate imperative is to diversify export-oriented sectors, but for the benefit of long-term sustainability, they must also look at the larger picture. A strong institutional and regulatory framework and workforce development initiatives are indispensable to the diversification effort; and proper management of human capital is key, especially in those countries experiencing a “demographic dividend.” Implementing such comprehensive diversification and risk management strategies won’t be easy, but the result—a
| + | |
| − | diverse, stable, and growing economy—is worth the effort.<ref>[https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/m1/en/reports/strategyand-resilient-stable-sustainable-benefits-economic-diversification.pdf ''Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification''], Booz & Company, 2011</ref>}}
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Related articles:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.amarilloedc.com/blog/the-importance-of-a-diversified-economy#:~:text=A%20diversified%20economy%20creates%20a,the%20growth%20of%20supporting%20industries. The Importance Of A Diversified Economy]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/m1/en/reports/strategyand-resilient-stable-sustainable-benefits-economic-diversification.pdf ''Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification'']
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Other major economic effects of the war in Ukraine on Russia ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [[File:MOEX Russia Index - stock index that tracks the performance of the 50 largest and most liquid stocks across 10 sectors in Russia.png|thumbnail|center|1000px|center|The MOEX Russia Index, or IMOEX, is a stock index that tracks the performance of the 50 largest and most liquid stocks across 10 sectors in Russia.
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | It is a capitalization-weighted composite index, which means that companies with larger market capitalization will constitute a larger percentage of the index's value.
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | Post the war in Ukraine, the MOEX index is down. However, in May of 2023 it was reported that the MOEX Russia Index has gained 24% in 2023 after tanking 42% in 2022.<ref>[https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/moscow-exchange-moex-index-highest-level-economic-sanctions-domestic-investors-2023-5 Russia's domestic stock investors, shut off from the international financial system, have helped send the Moscow Exchange to a 12-month high], Business Insider, 2023</ref> Russia's stock market is boosted by domestic investors who have few options amid sweeping sanctions.<ref>[https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/moscow-exchange-moex-index-highest-level-economic-sanctions-domestic-investors-2023-5 Russia's domestic stock investors, shut off from the international financial system, have helped send the Moscow Exchange to a 12-month high], Business Insider, 2023</ref>]]
| + | |
| − | [[File:Ruble.jpg|thumbnail|2000px|center|Russian 100 ruble currency note
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russian-ruble-slides-to-16-month-low-against-u-s-dollar-as-capital-flight-shrinking-trade-surplus-bite-90c2cfbc?mod=search_headline Russian ruble slides to 16-month low against U.S. dollar as capital flight, shrinking trade surplus bite], Marketwatch, August 14, 2023
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | *[https://archive.md/xJuj3#selection-4295.8-4295.22 Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit: Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects], ''Wall Street Journal'', August 2023
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-minister-now-us-truck-driver-salary-same-ruble-crashed-2023-8 The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low this week and is one of the worst performing currencies in 2023], August, 2023
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-081523/card/russia-cranks-interest-rates-to-12-in-emergency-move-supporting-ruble-qZIrzuCgo6bOG4LVggRQ Russia Cranks Interest Rates to 12% in Emergency Move Supporting Ruble], Barron's, August 2023
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | *[https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-crash-ruble-imports-account-finance-putin-moscow-ukraine-2023-7 5 stats show how Russia's economy is declining], Business Insider, 2023]]
| + | |
| − | {{Clear}}
| + | |
| − | {{Clear}}
| + | |
| − | [[File:Ruble 8-26-2023.jpg|thumbnail|center|1000px|Chart of the currency exchange between the Russian ruble to dollars from December 5, 2003 to August 26, 2023]]
| + | |
| − | === Russia's demographic crisis has been made worse by the war in Ukraine ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [[File:Russia's population size.jpg|thumbnail|500px|center|[https://archive.md/59f2N#selection-857.0-857.70 Russia’s population nightmare is going to get even worse], 2023
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | The war in Ukraine has aggravated a crisis that long predates the conflict. See: [[Russia's fertility rate]] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#:~:text=Demographic%20crisis,-See%20also%3A%20Demographic&text=Russia%20has%20become%20increasingly%20reliant,decline%20in%20over%20a%20decade. Demographics of Russia] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Russia Aging of Russia] ]]
| + | |
| − | {{Clear}}
| + | |
| − | [[Russia's fertility rate]] of 1.58 births per woman is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.<ref name="IntelliNews">[https://intellinews.com/russian-fertility-rates-fall-to-record-lows-on-the-back-of-a-deteriorating-economy-and-sanctions-pressure-243191/ Russian fertility rates fall to record lows on the back of a deteriorating economy and sanctions pressure], bne IntelliNews, 2022</ref> It's fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.<ref name="IntelliNews"/> And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.<ref name="IntelliNews"/>
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Russia will go out swinging (Ukraine, etc.), but its age demographics (which is among the worst in the world in terms of an aging population) and other problems will cause a cultural collapse in Russia in the 21st century (See: [https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUvJPdHqYYiHaspPfyBkYLqYfiOXHyduu Peter Zeihan's demography series]). See: [[Russia's fertility rate]] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#:~:text=Demographic%20crisis,-See%20also%3A%20Demographic&text=Russia%20has%20become%20increasingly%20reliant,decline%20in%20over%20a%20decade. Demographics of Russia] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Russia Aging of Russia]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Russia, fertility rate and demographics videos:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuhgLlxJMkU Demographics of the Orthodox Christain world] by [[Peter Zeihan]]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-pdZSv7G10&t=23s Russia's Demographic Crisis Explained - TLDR News]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXHZ0IH2rOk&t=2s Updates on Russian Demographics]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FH7QSCU1j_o Russia’s Demographic Crisis is Getting Worse]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1aFbmpE1wU (Russia is DONE) Russia's Catastrophic Demographics Collapse is Here.]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis worse (See: [[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse|Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]]).
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Other articles related this war in Ukraine making Russia's demographic crisis worse:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R--yq_RfvMY Russia Facing Population Disaster - Demographic Crisis, Employee Shortages & Economic Crisis]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/26/russia-stares-population-abyss-putin-sends-young-men-die/ Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die], ''The Telegraph'', February 2023
| + | |
| − | *[https://archive.md/shYl8#selection-335.0-335.16 Millennials and Gen Z are blaming Putin for intensifying Russia’s baby shortfall: ‘It’s pretty bad for us’], Fortune magazine, December 3, 2022
| + | |
| − | *[https://healthpolicy-watch.news/russia-population-drop/ Dramatic Population Drop in Russia, as War, COVID and Emigration Exacerbate Declining Births], 6/03/2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | For more information, please see:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://theweek.com/russia/1017914/russias-catastrophic-missing-men-problem Russia's 'catastrophic' missing men problem], ''The Week'', 2023
| + | |
| − | *[https://english.elpais.com/opinion/the-global-observer/2023-04-19/russias-population-shrinks-and-chinas-ages.html Russia’s population shrinks and China’s ages], Shifting demographics are posing unprecedented challenges for China and Russia, 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == User: Conservative essays on international politics ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [[File:Putin 2023.jpg|thumbnail|right|225px|[[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian|Vladimir Putin]]
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | See also: [[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian|Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian]] ]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === General essays on international politics ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?|The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?]]
| + | |
| − | *[[Essay: What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?|What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?]]
| + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Why has the West been so successful?|Why has the West been so successful?]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === The United States ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === China ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power|Skepticism about China remaining a global power]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China|The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Russia ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian|Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Russian war crimes in Ukraine|Russian war crimes in Ukraine]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future|Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse|Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: A Chinese economic collapse will be Russia's downfall|A Chinese economic collapse will be Russia's downfall]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines|Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will significantly hurt the Russian economy|The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will significantly hurt the Russian economy]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline|Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?|Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Whoever marries a divorced woman commits adultery. The Bible says adulterers will not inherit the kingdom of God. Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world. Is Russia a beacon of family values in the world? Nyet!|Whoever marries a divorced woman commits adultery. The Bible says adulterers will not inherit the kingdom of God. Russia has the 3rd highest rate of divorce in the world. Is Russia a beacon of family values in the world? Nyet!]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?|Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Do you strongly believe in gun rights? Don't move to Russia!|Do you strongly believe in gun rights? Don't move to Russia!]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: The Russian Army compared to the Israeli army. Why is the Israeli army so outstanding?|The Russian Army compared to the Israeli army. Why is the Israeli army so outstanding?]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Nordsteam pipelines being sabotaged and Putin failing to play politics several moves ahead on the politics chess board|Nordsteam pipelines being sabotaged and Putin failing to play politics several moves ahead on the politics chess board]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Vladimir Putin understimates small opponents - big time!|Vladimir Putin understimates small opponents - big time!]] - Humor
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: There is no evidence that Vladimir Putin plays chess|There is no evidence that Vladimir Putin plays chess]] - Humor
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Why a Westerner falling for Russian propaganda is like a man who is seduced by a corrupt 300 pound woman|Essay: Why a Westerner falling for Russian propaganda is like a man who is seduced by a corrupt 300 pound woman]] - Humor
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == See also ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[User:Conservative's essays]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == External links ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0o0aUVl14D4 John Mearsheimer - Geopolitical Stalemate - A Recipe for Endless Conflict]
| + | |
| − | *[https://thekennedybeacon.substack.com/p/what-were-not-being-told-about-the?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2 What We’re Not Being Told About the War in Ukraine] by Daniel Kovalik
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/shorts/sDAWUpSa5ZE ‘There’s no deal to be had here.’ John Mearsheimer on Ukraine and Russia]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.german-times.com/why-modern-wars-never-end-violence-has-morphed-from-a-political-instrument-into-an-economic-resource-but-this-is-only-one-of-five-reasons-for-todays-never-ending-conflicts/ Why modern wars never end. Violence has morphed from a political instrument into an economic resource, but this is only one of five reasons for today’s never-ending conflicts], ''German Times'', 2019
| + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_by_duration List of conflicts by duration]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==References==
| + | |
| − | {{reflist}}
| + | |
| − | [[Category: Essays]]
| + | |
| − | [[Category: Ukraine]]
| + | |
