User:Conservative/Forecasting
< User:Conservative
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Economics
General forecasting
- The Peculiar Blindness of Experts - Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.
Political forecasting
1. Political expert forecasts
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip Tetlock - video
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006)
2. Arthur C. Brooks wrote in his article Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being: "A 2012 survey conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University asked a sample of Americans about their news-consumption habits, and quizzed them about U.S. and international political and economic events. They found that those watching the most partisan television news sourcesâon both the left and the rightâwere often less knowledgeable about world events than those who consumed no news at all."[1]
- At Least Bias Is Bipartisan: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Partisan Bias in Liberals and Conservatives - Perspectives on Psychological Science
3. Political betting markets have better accuracy than polls and pundits.
Economic forecasting
Yield curve
The difficulty of long term economic forecasting for various companies/sectors/countries
- Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming - Warren Buffett
Difficulty of short term economic forecasting due to various factors
Sources:
References
- â Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being by Arthur C. Brooks, The Atlantic, 2020