User:Conservative/Forecasting
Economics
General forecasting
- Superforecasting - Philip Tetlock - Playlist
- The Peculiar Blindness of Experts - Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.
Economic forecasting
Yield curve
The difficulty of long term economic forecasting for various companies/sectors/countries
- Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming - Warren Buffett
Difficulty of short term economic forecasting due to various factors
Videos/podcast, investing/business/trends
Stock investing: Good opportunities
MOAT:
- MOAT: Nothing Better Than A Sustainable Competitive Advantage (The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF has outperformed the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF over the past 10 years.)
Investing in blue chip art:
Angel investing study - 27% return - Kaufman study:
Stock investing experts
Mark Lipias
Mark Lipacis: Out of more than 8,000 total analysts in the TipRanks database, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis is rated No. 1 based on his stock-picking track record over the past 10 years. Lipacis has an impressive 73% success rate on his stock ratings, and his 498 stock picks generated an average return of 30.3%.[1]
Eric Fry
Other Notable stock investment specialist
Motley Fool:
Growth investor:
Louis Navellier:
Tech investor:
Sources:
Economics mixed with right-wing political ideology:
America will suffer a great depression in 2030:
Semi doom and gloomers:
Jim Rogers:
Marc Faber:
- Gloom Boom and Doom - Marc Faber - Swiss investor based in Thailand
Nouriel Roubini:
Gary Shilling:
Doom and gloomers:
Prediction markets
Political forecasting
1. Political expert forecasts
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip Tetlock - video (Critical thinkers did the best. They tried to falsify their notions/forecast)
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006)
2. Arthur C. Brooks wrote in his article Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being: "A 2012 survey conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University asked a sample of Americans about their news-consumption habits, and quizzed them about U.S. and international political and economic events. They found that those watching the most partisan television news sourcesâon both the left and the rightâwere often less knowledgeable about world events than those who consumed no news at all."[1]
- At Least Bias Is Bipartisan: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Partisan Bias in Liberals and Conservatives - Perspectives on Psychological Science
3. Political betting markets have better accuracy than polls and pundits.
References
- â Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being by Arthur C. Brooks, The Atlantic, 2020