User:Conservative/Forecasting
.
Economics
General forecasting
- Superforecasting - Philip Tetlock - Playlist
- The Peculiar Blindness of Experts - Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.
Economic forecasting
Yield curve
The difficulty of long term economic forecasting for various companies/sectors/countries
- Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming - Warren Buffett
Difficulty of short term economic forecasting due to various factors
Videos/podcast, investing/business/trends
Stock investing: Good opportunities
MOAT:
- MOAT: Nothing Better Than A Sustainable Competitive Advantage (The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF has outperformed the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF over the past 10 years.)
Investing in blue chip art:
Books:
- Understanding Art by Lois Fichner-Rathus, Cengage Learning; 11th edition (January 1, 2016)
- How To Understand Art (Art Essentials) by Janetta Rebold Benton, Thames & Hudson (October 26, 2021)
- Foundations of Art and Design by Lois Fichner-Rathus, Wadsworth Publishing; 1st edition (February 16, 2007)
Angel investing study - 27% return - Kaufman study:
Stock investing experts
Mark Lipias
Mark Lipacis: Out of more than 8,000 total analysts in the TipRanks database, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis is rated No. 1 based on his stock-picking track record over the past 10 years. Lipacis has an impressive 73% success rate on his stock ratings, and his 498 stock picks generated an average return of 30.3%.[1]
Eric Fry
Other Notable stock investment specialists
- The Motley Fool â Best Stock-Picking Service
- Seeking Alpha â Best Investment Research Website for Experienced Investors
- Morningstar â Best Data-Driven Investment Research Platform (especially for mutual funds and ETFs)
- Zacks â Best Supplementary Rating System
Motley Fool:
Growth investor:
Louis Navellier:
Tech investors:
- Produced in partnership with TrueBridge Capital Partners, the Midas List has long tracked venture capitalâs ebbs and flows as the definitive ranking of the top 100 tech investors."- Forbes, 2023[2]
- Brownstone Research and Investing Legend Jeff Brown Reveals Revolutionary "G.T.E." Technology and Jeff Brown - review
Quants: What They Do and How They've Evolved
Stock market direction indicators
Employment, Inflation, Consumer Activity and investor activity
St. Louis Federal Reserve's Financial Stress Index and Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index
VIX
- The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market. When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.
The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) creates and tracks an index know as the Volatility Index (VIX), which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index options.
- The Vix Index - Investopedia - The VIX is used as a contrary market indicator, how institutional sentiment can be measured by VIX, and why an understanding of the VIX tends to favor long and short puts.
KEY TAKEAWAYs
- The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market.
- When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.
- Buying when the VIX is high and selling when it is low is a strategy, but one that needs to be considered against other factors and indicators.
Sources:
Economics mixed with right-wing political ideology:
America will suffer a great depression in 2030:
Semi doom and gloomers:
Jim Rogers:
Marc Faber:
- Gloom Boom and Doom - Marc Faber - Swiss investor based in Thailand
Nouriel Roubini:
Gary Shilling:
Doom and gloomers:
Prediction markets
Great book on forecasting
Question: Did you know that is very doable to be a better forecaster in terms of politics, economics and other future events? There is a great book on this matter by the political science writer and political science professor Philip E. Tetlock entitled Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction which has some fascinating information. And the book has received a lot of positive reviews by various people involved in forecasting.
Political forecasting
1. Political expert forecasts
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip Tetlock - video (Critical thinkers did the best. They tried to falsify their notions/forecast)
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006)
2. Arthur C. Brooks wrote in his article Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being: "A 2012 survey conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University asked a sample of Americans about their news-consumption habits, and quizzed them about U.S. and international political and economic events. They found that those watching the most partisan television news sourcesâon both the left and the rightâwere often less knowledgeable about world events than those who consumed no news at all."[1]
- At Least Bias Is Bipartisan: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Partisan Bias in Liberals and Conservatives - Perspectives on Psychological Science
3. Political betting markets have better accuracy than polls and pundits.
References
- â Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being by Arthur C. Brooks, The Atlantic, 2020