2010 Midterm Elections

In the 2010 Midterm Elections, the nation will elect the 112th Congress, including all members of the House and one third of the Senate, together with a majority of governorships and many state and local offices.

After the Democratic Party successes in the 2006 off-year election (when they recaptured Congress), augmented by more gains in the Presidential Election of 2008, the question is whether the Democrats will hold their gains or slip back. Since the Democrats have an advantage of 257-178 in the House, the GOP must gain 40 seats to recapture control. Since the Democrats control the Senate 60-40 (counting two independents and the vacant Massachusetts seat), the GOP needs to gain 11 seats in the Senate to retake control; but even a one-seat gain would allow the GOP to filibuster obnoxious bills, for 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster.

Democrats have gotten off to a much faster start than Republicans in fundraising for 2010. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $10.2 million in the bank at the end of July, 2009, with debts of $5.3 million. The National Republican Congressional Committee had just $4 million in cash and owed $2.75 million.

The GOP has a small financial lead in Senate races. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has $6.80 million for its campaign account, but has $2.91 from outstanding loans. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has $5.10 million, and has paid off its debt from the last election cycle. In August 2009, the NRSC raised $3.08 million while the DSCC raised $2.2 million.

Forecasts

Democrats must defend about 60 marginal House seats in 2010, as opposed to about 40 for Republicans. At high risk are 27 Democratic seats and just 13 Republican seats that may see a party switch.

Election forecasters in September 2009 were revising their predictions downward for the Democrats, as Obama's popularity continues to plunge. From April to August, Obama lost 10 points across the board--suffering losses in every group except blacks, who remain loyal to him. The popularity of Congress remains low. Fewer people are calling themselves Democrats. The Republican party, however, suffers from a lack of leaders and its own poor reputation in voter esteem.

"No question, August proved cathartic for voters and chaotic for congressional Democrats. But way before the town hall meetings during recess, there were ample signs for Democrats to fear for their careers in 2010," concluded Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman, who predicts the Democrats will lose 20 seats in the House, but retain control. Wasserman concludes that a major shift has been underway among "angry white seniors" (over age 60), who strongly dislike the Obama health care proposals because they fear they will lose benefits they now have.

Analyst Stuart Rothenberg is now reporting, "Growing public concern about spending, taxes and the size of government has started to shift the national landscape away from the Democrats to a more neutral position, and quite possibly toward the GOP."

Notable House Races

See: 2010 House Elections

Senate

CQ predictions, Sept. 2009

The top Senate races are:

• 1 Connecticut (Incumbent=Dem, running for reelection)
• 2 New Hampshire Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 3 Missouri Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 4 Kentucky Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 5 Pennsylvania (incumbent=Dem running for reelection)
• 6 Ohio Open (incumbent = Rep)
• 7 Colorado (incumbent=Dem, running for reelection)
• 8 Illinois Open (incumbent = Dem)
• 9 Louisiana (incumbent=Rep, running for reelection)
• 10 Delaware Open (incumbent = Dem)

Texas Senator John Cornyn, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee has quietly put Senate Republicans in position to benefit as the national political environment goes negative on Democrats. Cornyn has recruited serious candidates in Democratic-held seats in Illinois, Colorado and Connecticut, and still may land top tier recruits in North Dakota and Delaware. With seven open seats to defend, Cornyn understands that he must play offense in a few states if he hopes to position the party to make major gains in the 2012 and 2014 cycles -- both of which, by the numbers, are far more favorable for Republicans.

Special Elections

• Massachusetts

Liberal icon Ted Kennedy, the third longest-serving Senator in U.S. history, died from a brain tumor in August 2009, marking the end of an era. During the 2004 Presidential Election the Democratic super-majority in the state legislator blocked the right of Republican Governor Mitt Romney to appoint an interim senator had John Kerry been elected President. They now want to allow Governor Deval Patrick, a Democrat, the right to appoint a temporary replacement for Kennedy. Regardless, a special election will be held on January 19, 2010.

Given that Massachusetts is arguably the most liberal state in the country (the federal delegation has been entirely Democratic since 1997) the real race will likely be the Democrat primary, held on December 8, 2009. Candidates include State Attorney General Martha Coakley and businessman Alan Khazei. Representative Jim McGovern and Mike Capuano are probable candidates. On the Republican side, State Senator Scott Brown has declared his candidacy. Many high-profile Republicans have declined to run, such as former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card, former Governor Mitt Romney, and former Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey. Former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, who has conservative-leanings, may run as an independent, since he is not registered in any political party.

• Texas

Senior Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison has announced she will resign from the Senate in fall 2009 to pursue a campaign for Governor. As a result, Republican Governor Rick Perry must appoint a replacement, and under Texas law, a special election will be held on May 8th. The only announced Republican candidate is Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams. Other possible GOP candidates include 6th district Representative Joe Barton, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, and State Senator Florence Shapiro. Former State Comptroller John Sharp and Houston Mayor Bill White have announced they will seek the Democrat nomination. Texas is considered a Republican state. In the 2008 Presidential Election, John McCain won it's 34 electoral votes with 56 percent of the vote.

Open Seats

• Delaware

Joe Biden was simultaneously elected to a seventh term in the Senate and Vice President at the same time. Democrat Governor Ruth Ann Minner appointed a "caretaker" Senator, Ted Kaufman. If state Attorney General Beau Biden runs in the 2010 special election he would be the favorite in the Democratic nomination, but not necessarily the general election if moderate Republican nine-term Congressman Michael Castle, former governor and lieutenant governor, enters the race. Polls show Castle would lead Biden by a conformable margin. Republican political analyst Christine O'Donnell (who ran against Biden in 2008 and received 35% of the vote) has also announced her candidacy.

• Florida

Republican Governor Charlie Crist, who enjoys high approval ratings, appointed George LeMieux upon the resignation of Senator Mel Martinez. LeMieux is holding the seat temporarily for Governor Crist who will run for the Senate in 2010. He is the front-runner for the Republican nomination, but is being challenged by conservative Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio. Crist alienated conservatives when he campaigned with President Obama in support for the $787 billion economic stimulus package, which was entirely opposed by the Florida Republican federal delegation. Democrats have recruited lesser known candidates, including 17th district Representative Kendrick Meek and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns. Public Opinion Shows show both Crist and Rubio would lead their Democrat opponents.

• Illinois

Democrat Senator Roland Burris has been plagued by controversies. Burris was appointed to replace Barack Obama by Governor Rod Blagojevich, who had been arrested on a variety of federal corruption charges (including for trying to "sell" Obama's Senate seat). Burris was then accused of committing perjury after he admitted to not testifying truthfully at a committee investigating Governor Blagojevich. Burris has announced he will not seek a full term in 2010.

Republicans see this as a pickup opportunity. National Journal ranked Illinois the second most likely seat to change party. Moderate-GOP Congressman Mark Kirk, representing a Democratic-leaning district that covers suburban Chicago, has announced his candidacy and is expected to easily win the Republican nomination. Democratic candidates include Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson, Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, and attorney Jacob Meister.

• Kansas

Incumbent Republican Sam Brownback is honoring his campaign pledge to serve only two terms. One of the most conservative states in the country, no prominent Democrats have announced their candidacy. The Cook Political Report lists this race as "solid Republican." The competitive race will be the Republican primary between 1st district Congressman Jerry Moran and 4th district Congressman Todd Tiahrt. Public Opinion Polls show Moran and Tiahrt in a dead heat.

• Kentucky

Republicans had a victory when unpopular incumbent Senator Jim Bunning announced he would not seek a third term. Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson is seeking the Republican nomination, however is being challenged by Libertarian Republican Rand Paul, an eye surgeon who is the son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo (who lost to Bunning in 2004) and state Attorney General Jack Conway are running.

• Missouri

Incumbent Republican Senator Kit Bond has announced he will not seek fifth term. Former House Majority Whip Roy Blunt has announced his candidacy. Blunt benefits from raising a strong $1.44 million in the second quarter and as of now has no serious primary challenger. Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is seeking the Democratic nomination.

• Ohio

Moderate Republican George Voinovich has announced he will not seek a third term. The Democratic field includes Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Fisher has received the endorsement of Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Meanwhile, Republicans has rallied behind Rob Portman, former Congressman and Director of the Office of Management and Budget. The race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the election cycle.

Governors

The top races for governorships, and the parties now in power, are:

for November, 2009:

• Virginia open seat (incumbent Democrat is not running)
• N.J. incumbent Democrat is running

In both states the Republicans in early September had a lead of 5% to 10% in polls.

for 2010:

• 1 Kansas incumbent=Democrat
• 2 R.I. incumbent=Republican
• 3 Hawaii incumbent=Republican
• 4 Nevada incumbent=Republican
• 5 Tennessee incumbent=Democrat
• 6 Michigan incumbent=Democrat
• 7 Oklahoma incumbent=Democrat
• 8 Florida incumbent=Republican, not running
• 9 N.Y. incumbent=Democrat

Further reading

• Michael Barone, The Almanac of American Politics: 2010 (2009) 1726pp; in-depth covereage of every seat in Congress.